Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, May 6, 2026 -- "The Gap"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Over in the NL, though, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mets all changed hands between 2009 and 2021. Those teams have won four of the last nine World Series. The Phillies, under John Middleton, combined development and dollars to reach four straight postseasons. The Braves went into a rebuild and came out of it with a World Series and a core locked down for most of this decade. The Brewers are the inheritors of the Moneyball lineage now, while the Padres invested in their product and drew three million fans in three straight seasons.

That’s showing up in interleague play. The NL has had the better record in two of the last three and four of the last seven seasons, not including this one. The NL has a .512 winning percentage in interleague play since 2018 (ex. 2020; 2020 never counts) and a .516 mark under the “everybody plays everybody” schedule, plus this year’s early-season waxing. 

 
 
 

Monday, May 4, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, May 4, 2026 -- "Tarik Skubal Down"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Skubal will be facing a lot of pressure to get back on the mound and prove that he’s healthy. He can become a free agent after the 2026 season, and his trip into the market was already likely to be complicated by the expected owners’ lockout on December 1. Now, he’ll have somewhere between eight and maybe 11 starts -- always bet on a pitcher to be out at the longer end of expectation -- to show that he’s worth a $250 million risk Jacob deGrom got $185 million with a much shakier CV. Blake Snell got $182 million after the second good year of his eight-year career. I am not sure a launch year with a low innings total will hurt Skubal much, but teams are going to want the last thing they see to be the big lefty in form.

 
 
 

Friday, May 1, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, May 1, 2026 -- "The New Normal"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Outside of that, though, you can see how offense has stabilized. MLB is a .245 league now, likely to hit under .250 for a sixth straight full year, something that hasn’t happened since the first decade of the last century. The no-fly baseball and the trend towards positioning outfielders deeper have taken ten points off BABIP in recent seasons, mostly on doubles and triples.

Stasis, Honest (Marpril batting, selected stats 2023-26)

        BA/con    2B+3B/con   SLG/con  ISO/con
2026      .321        6.70%      .519     .198
2025      .318        6.68%      .516     .197
2024      .318        6.62%      .510     .192
2023      .329        7.20%      .541     .211