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Since 2022, teams coming off long rest and holding a rest edge have gone 13-12 in their first game back. That described the Dodgers against the Blue Jays in World Series Game One last year, when the Jays jumped them for an 11-4 win. The Dodgers’ loss last year added to a very small sample of results, since 2012, in which one team started an LCS or the World Series with at least five days’ rest.
I wrote this last year:
I wonder if there is something to getting past four days, which is the length of the modern All-Star break, that has an effect. Since 2012, teams playing the first game of an LCS or World Series with at least five days’ rest and a rest advantage over their opponent have gone 1-4 [now 1-5] in the first game back. That’s a sample size of five [now six] games, so I went back to the start of the century: Since 2001, LCS and Series teams with at least five days’ rest and a rest advantage are 5-9 [now 5-10] in their first game back.
I’m not 100% convinced this is signal, but it at least directionally supports the idea that once you get to five days off at this point in October, teams may be a bit thrown off by the rest.
The Brewers enter Friday’s Game One after seven days off and with a four-day rest advantage over the Rays.
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