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Whatever you think the in-season variance of baseball teams is, it’s wider than that. The Mets went 45-24 and then 31-49. The Yankees went 42-25, then 20-31, and are now on a 22-11 run. The Brewers started 25-28, went 53-16 for almost three months, and have a 14-15 record since then. The division-leading Blue Jays played .440 ball in May and .692 ball in July. The Phillies have ranged from .478 to .679, and are playing .800 ball in September. Four teams have both a winning streak and a losing streak of at least seven games. At least one of those teams, and possibly three of them, will still be playing two weeks from now.
The only thing that matters is the standings on the night of September 28.
The only thing that matters is the standings on the night of September 28.