Friday, May 30, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 30, 2025 -- "Boffo Box Office"

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Even a team with the financial resources and player-development skill the Dodgers have can only take so much. The Dodgers, right now, simply do not have enough healthy pitchers. In May, the team is 22nd in ERA and 25th in FIP. They’ve gone through 21 pitchers (plus Miguel Rojas) in 25 games over 29 days. That number will go up, as the Dodgers traded for former Reds closer Alexis Diaz, who will now throw 26 fantastic innings and get injured in August. Adding Diaz yesterday means the Dodgers have made a change to their pitching staff on 14 days this month, a level of churn that’s remarkable even in modern baseball. Andrew Friedman has reflected on the injuries to his homegrown pitchers, but much of this is simply the team’s tolerance for risk -- Glasnow, Snell, Sasaki and all the relievers were health cases long before they were Dodgers. The Dodgers are just playing a different game, assuming they can get to the tournament and planning to be at full strength when they do.
 
 
 
 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, May 27, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

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I read your newsletter item about Derek Shelton’s firing the other day, and saw your social posts about Paul Skenes deserving a mercy trade. And it made me wonder: From your perspective, is there any chance, under current ownership, that a different GM could come in and execute a successful rebound/rebuild before Skenes departs? Or is this organization so bad that it wouldn’t be possible?

Regardless of financial constraints… it is shocking to me that a GM of Ben Cherington’s experience could have executed so badly over the past five-plus years, in the draft and in trades and even in free agency, that we would now find ourselves in this position yet again.

-- Mike F.

I do not. This fish stinks from the head. You could put the illicit love child of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein in that role, and it would not matter. I understand the frustration with Cherington, who has squandered a fair amount of draft capital during his time running the Pirates, but he is not the problem here.

Cherington will probably lose his job next, and whoever takes over will inherit a decent core but an ownership unwilling to make investments around that core, limiting the Pirates’ upside. We saw this with the mid-2010s teams, which were very good, filling PNC Park, and which went unsupported by ownership. I believe the largest free-agent contract the Pirates have given out is still Francisco Liriano’s $40 million or so deal. That’s not Ben Cherington’s fault.

There is only one answer here, and that’s for Bob Nutting to sell. I instead think he will stick around and try to help get a payroll cap and increased local revenue sharing in the 2027 CBA negotiations. Until then, Pirates fans will suffer. I’m truly sorry, man. It’s a great baseball city.

--J.
 
 
 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, May 26, 2025 -- "Philadelphia Story"

 

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Despite losing Aaron Nola to the IL, the Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball, in fact lapping the field -- a full win, by FanGraphs -- better than the Royals. The Phillies have had a top-five rotation by this measure in each of the last five seasons, and in that time they are simply running away from the rest of the league.

TSOP (The Starters of Philadelphia)* (SP fWAR, 2021-25)

             

             IP    ERA    FIP    fWAR
Phillies   3840   3.97   3.79    75.0
Astros     3890   3.64   3.95    60.7
Dodgers    3550   3.64   3.97    58.7
Braves     3767   3.87   3.85    58.1
Giants     3405   3.85   3.58    57.3


The gap between the Phillies in first and the Astros in second is larger than the gap between those second-best Astros and the 17th-ranked Royals.
 

Thursday, May 22, 2025

All-Quarter Century Team

Stealing Jayson Stark's great idea for an All-Quarter Century team...

C: Yadier Molina

1B: Albert Pujols

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Francisco Lindor

3B: Adrian Beltre

LF: Barry Bonds

CF: Mike Trout

RF: Mookie Betts

DH: David Ortiz

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Johan Santana

RP: Mariano Rivera

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 21, 2025 -- "Twwwwwwwwwwwwwins"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Twins relievers have given up just two leads all month, and one of them involved the free runner in extra innings. Five Twins relievers have pitched at least five innings in May with FIPs below 2.00. Lefty Danny Coulombe had struck out 45% of the batters he faced before going on the IL with the dreaded left forearm strain. Jhoan Duran throws a 100-mph fastball and a 98-mph splinker. Good luck. The Twins have a number of reclamation projects in this pen, like Brock Stewart and Louis Varland, who have attracted the attention of pitching nerds and who are, for the moment, healthy and pitching well. This looked like the second-best pen in baseball in the preseason, and it ranks first, by fWAR, today.
 
 

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 20, 2025 -- "The Tigers and Giants"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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I can chip away at this roster, but it feels like nitpicking. The Tigers have the best record in baseball, third-best third-order mark, and they’ve done it while missing key pieces. Parker Meadows’s return, in particular, will make the whole outfield defense better and add a good lefty bat to the lineup. Vierling is a Statcast darling and the best defensive third baseman on the team. Cobb may not be someone who makes a lot of starts, but the ones he does make will be effective. It’s likely that we haven’t seen the Tigers’ best roster yet.

Of the teams I missed on in the spring, I am most likely to accept an L on the Tigers, though with the caveat that the team I evaluated is quite a bit different than the one that’s 31-17 today. I don’t know that anyone could have projected Baez, Torkelson, and McKinstry to be playing at five-win paces, or even that they would get the playing time that might have produced that kind of value. Even accounting for that, though, the team’s offense is clearly better than I expected it to be, and even regressing it a bit, will be an above-average group this year.


 

Friday, May 16, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 16, 2025 -- "The Orioles"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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There are some reasons to believe. Expected stats are a bit of a mess, but at least the ordering should be alright, and they show that the Orioles deserve much more from their batted balls (.245 xBA, .420 xSLG) than they have gotten (.226 and .381). On the pitching side, they’re getting a bit unlucky when their opponents get a hold of one. The average barreled baseball produces a .669 BA and a 2.211 SLG. Orioles opponents have hit .759 with a 2.634 SLG, figures that are second-highest and highest in baseball. The Orioles have also allowed a disproportionate number of their baserunners to score. This is a bad pitching staff, just maybe not as bad as it has looked.
 
 

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 18, 2015 -- "Rule 21 (d)"

 

 Bumping this in light of Tuesday's news. Subscribe for this and more. --J.

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This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 7, No. 9
March 18, 2015

On September 28, 2013, the Rangers were trying to hang on in the AL wild-card chase, and were trailing the Angels 1-0 in the bottom of the first. Ian Kinsler led off with a single, and scampered to second on a wild pitch by Garrett Richards. Rangers manager Ron Washington had Elvis Andrus, ahead in the count 2-1, lay down a sacrifice bunt that moved Kinsler to third base. It was an indefensible decision by Washington, a play that he would put on a few times a year, and it made the Rangers slightly less likely to win the game and make the postseason. To Washington, though, it was the opposite -- he believed he was pulling the lever that he gave his team the best chance to succeed.

A week later in the NL Division Series, Don Mattingly was faced with a series of choices late in Game Two with the Dodgers down 2-1 in the seventh. He ended making a notably poor decision, walking Reed Johnson intentionally so that Jason Heyward could bat with the bases loaded. Even accounting for the platoon advantage, it was an execrable call that contributed to the Dodgers losing the game (Heyward singled in two runs). Mattingly was excoriated for his tactical blunder, but even in the moment it was clear that all Mattingly wanted to do was escape the inning down 2-1 and give his team a chance to win a critical playoff game.

With the Royals charging back in the AL Central and AL wild-card races, Ned Yost was faced with a tough call in the middle of September. Up 4-3 in the sixth, Jason Vargas put the first two Red Sox on to start the inning. Yost went to his bullpen and selected Aaron Crow, probably his fifth-best right-handed reliever at that point in the season. None of Yost's dominant relievers had pitched the day before, and neither Wade Davis nor Kelvin Herrera had pitched in three days. It was a mistake at the time, and it would blow up when Daniel Nava hit a grand slam off of Crow. Yost, however, believed that sticking to his set reliever roles -- and thereby using Crow in the sixth -- was the best way for his team to win not just that game, but to make the postseason. 

In 1985, the Reds were the Dodgers' closest challenger for NL West supremacy, closing to 4 1/2 games out with a bit more than two weeks left in the season. On September 25, with the Reds six games out and running out of time, they found themselves tied with the Braves in the ninth. Rose brought in his best reliever, John Franco, in the ninth to escape a minor Braves rally, then pulled Franco one out into the tenth. It wasn't unusual for relievers, or for Franco himself, to go multiple innings back then. Nevertheless, Rose brought in Ted Power, who escaped the tenth and then allowed two runs in the 11th to lose the game. Rose no doubt believed that with Dale Murphy coming up, he wanted to get a right-hander into the game. That's the decision he felt would give the Reds the best chance to win, to stay in a division race, and to put money in his pocket.

Maybe Pete Rose bet on the Reds every night, as he now claims. Maybe he didn't, as John Dowd counters. The truth is, it doesn't matter. From Major League Rule 21, covering misconduct, section (d):

(d) BETTING ON BALL GAMES. Any player, umpire or club official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever on any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has no duty to perform shall be declared ineligible for one year.

Any player, umpire or club official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible.

Is it possible that Pete Rose didn't know the rule?

(g) RULE TO BE KEPT POSTED. A printed copy of this Rule shall be kept posted in each clubhouse.

Pete Rose played in more baseball games than anyone ever, 3,562 of 'em. he managed another 419 after retiring as a player. That's almost 4,000 games. Let's say, just to make the math easy, that Rose left the clubhouse twice every game, once for BP and once for the game itself. That's nearly 8,000 times walking past Rule 21(d). He was as exposed to the rule as anyone who ever put on a uniform.

He bet on baseball games in which he was managing one of the teams anyway.

Rose shouldn't have his ineligibility lifted. What he did is the crime that, in professional sports, cannot be forgiven. We have to be able to watch the games any believe that every player and every manager is in it to win for the success of the team, and not because he has money riding on the outcome, because once you lose that, you question everything. Washington and Yost and Mattingly were making bad decisions, but those decisions weren't motivated by the possibility of cashing a ticket. I can't say that about Rose. Maybe he pulled Franco because he was sweating the money and didn't want to risk letting Murphy face a lefty, and didn't think about the fact that to that point, Murphy had never hit a ball out of the infield against Franco in five tries. Maybe Rose was looking ahead to the next night, the next bet, the chance to use Franco in a situation where he could protect a lead and his money, maybe even getting better odds behind Andy McGaffigan, only recently called back up from Triple-A.

When you bet on a game you can influence, you invite the maybes. The industry of professional baseball can't have maybes. That's why the penalty is permanent eligibility, and why the rule is posted in every clubhouse.

Rose's ban has to hold. It has to hold so that Rose is the example for every baseball player who walks into a clubhouse knows that 21(d) is sacrosanct, and that MLB will end you if you violate it. It shows that no one is too big to lose his baseball life over it. Rule 21(d) matters more than three strikes and you're out, three outs and inning over, nine innings and we go home. It is the rule that let's teams charge for tickets and put the games on TV and sell gear and build stadiums and know that people will show up and invest themselves in the outcomes.

Rule 21(d) is the rule that lets me call Ron Washington an idiot without ever worrying that something else is going on. Pete Rose? Pete Rose isn't half as important, a tenth as important, as Rule 21(d). Let that be his legacy.


Newsletter Excerpt, May 14, 2025 -- "The Padres"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Based on what shows up in my inbox and text messages, I think I’ve picked up a reputation as a Padres hater. That’s not remotely accurate. It was just two seasons ago I kept hammering the point that an around-.500 Padres team was far better than its record, and I even insisted they could make the playoffs when they were well off the pace. I believed in A.J. Preller’s build that year. Last year’s team impressed me less, but it went from 2-12 in extra innings to 10-2 -- the entire difference in its ’23 and ’24 records -- and made the playoffs. Pointing that out, not buying into the narrative around the ’24 team, seems to have gotten me a label. (For whatever it’s worth, the Padres are 0-2 in extra innings this year, 8-4 in 1/x games.)

Monday, May 12, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 12, 2025 -- "Teams Week"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Even at that, the internal variance of team performance is always a factor. A team projected to play .550 ball doesn’t go exactly 11-9 every 20 games. I keep hammering this point because it’s critical to not overreacting to every four-game winning or losing streak: Whatever you think the in-season variance of a team’s performance is, it’s higher than that. The Angels started the season 9-5, then went 9-18. The Braves followed up 5-13 with 14-8. Last year, the 121-loss White Sox had a stretch in which they won eight of 12. Back in 2023, the A’s were 12-50 when they ripped off a seven-game winning streak that included a sweep in Milwaukee over the playoff-bound Brewers. 
 
 

Friday, May 9, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 9, 2025 -- "Potpourri"

 

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Leaving aside his affinities, there’s something about a Pope who likes baseball that brings me joy. Popes, for all my life (and at that, all the Church’s life), have been these distant, foreign figures, and now we have one who remembers Ozzie Guillen calling in Bobby Jenks from the pen, and DeWayne Wise making that catch, and perhaps even this, somewhat lesser, night at the ballpark. Maybe he’s not one of us seamheads, wondering what happened to Colson Montgomery or hankering for news that Jerry Reinsdorf will sell the team, but he’s one of us, a baseball fan, a Pope who’s been to the yard, had a dog, sung “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.”
 
 

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 7, 2025 -- "Kind of a Drag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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A well-struck batted ball in 2025 is flying, on average, about five feet less than it did in 2023. It’s flying more than ten feet less than it did in 2019. It’s the lowest-fly baseball in the decade-long history of tracking. These are enormous differences, especially in a sport where power has become the most reliable, often the only reliable, means of scoring runs. 
 
 

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, May 6, 2025 -- "Fun With Numbers: 1/x Games"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The first thing you notice when you look at this is that the distribution of 1/x records tends to be narrower than the distribution of all records. The closer the game, the more likely it is to be decided by a good bounce, a bad call, one play made or not made. The range of all winning percentages last year was .605 to .253; the range of 1/x games, .604 to .295. The team that broke the modern record for losses in a season, the White Sox, went 13-31 (.295) in 1/x games, 28-91 (.237) in all others. Performance in 1/x games can make or break a season, but it’s not as strong an indicator of team quality as performance in other games or, in particular, in blowouts (games decided by at least five runs).