Newsletter Excerpt, September 8, 2025 -- "No Sweeps"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Since losing Jonathan Aranda at the trade deadline on July 31, the Rays are 23rd in runs scored and 22nd in wRC+ (93), down from tenth and 16th (99) in those categories prior to Aranda breaking his wrist. Aranda’s long-awaited breakout season -- .316/.394/.478 -- was sustaining this offense, and his loss may cost the Rays a playoff berth. The Rays have failed to reach even three runs in a game a third of the time without him. They have seven games left with the Jays, but have now dropped to 11 behind them, ending their AL East hopes.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2025 -- "Showdown Showcase"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Brewers, I can understand. The Jays’ success is a bit harder to get at, as the individual elements aren’t as impressive. Third-order record, though, sees them as just two games worse than actual. They do get a boost in close games; their one-run/extra-innings record is 23-18. They’re 8-4 in extras, and as I wrote a couple of weeks back, that is pretty much their edge over the Red Sox and Yankees. Updating...

Blue Jays in regulation, 73-55, 570 (8-4 in extras)

Yankees in regulation, 73-54, .575 (5-8 in extras)

Red Sox in regulation, 71-51, .582 (7-12 in extras)

The stupid-runner rule is flipping the AL East this year.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 4, 2025 -- "The AL West"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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These races will largely play out on the scoreboard. The Mariners have more games left with the National League (12) than they do with the American (10). Seattle plays just three more games against a relevant opponent, September 19-21 in Houston. They’re in an odd spot, with the Rangers and Astros playing each other. The Astros winning makes it harder for the Ms to win the division but easier for them to make the tournament. The Rangers winning keeps the division in play but puts a playoff spot at greater risk. Mariners fans, who are you rooting for this weekend?

The current ordering of the teams in the AL West is how it’s most likely to end. The Astros held on for months with a patchwork roster -- Joe Espada is still my AL Manager of the Year -- and now have gotten their best player and a number of rotation upgrades back. The Mariners were in position to take the division in August and saw their starting pitching collapse, aided by some bad batted-ball luck, at the wrong time. The Rangers didn’t hit for two months, then just when they seemed ready to make a 2023-like charge, lost three key players and their #2 starter for the year. Once again, it’s the Astros’ division. 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 2, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The concern with the Brewers was always the pitching staff, not the offense. I had the hitters 15th preseason, the rotation 23rd, the pen 17th -- the latter two units backed up by the best defense in baseball. The Brewers’ hitters have combined the second-highest BABIP and sixth-highest walk rate in baseball to produce the second-highest OBP, driving an offense that is top ten in wRC+. It may be a little over its skis, but it’s not going to be the problem. No, the risk here is entirely in the pitching staff. I am not entirely sure who the #2 starter is, and the injuries in the pen have pushed a lot of work onto Uribe and Aaron Ashby. Ashby is third in the majors in relief innings pitched since the break, Uribe is tied for 22nd. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 29, 2025 -- "Gotta Write"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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You can’t control the distribution of wins. All you can control is the quality of teams that make the playoffs. MLB has lowered that quality since 1969, and rapidly so since 1995. Some years that pays off in dramatic scrambles among 85-win teams, and in others, you get an 84% chance the playoff field is set before the end of August. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 26, 2025 -- "Misses"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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I thought the Marlins would be the worst team in baseball, ranking every one of their units 22nd or below. I saved particular scorn for their offense:

All this decent pitching is in support of an offense that might struggle in the Sun Belt Conference. Losing Jesus Sanchez, the team’s best hitter and a breakout pick of mine, isn’t helping. Sanchez could be back in a week or two from a strain in his left side. Squint and you can project Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers, acquired from the Orioles last summer, for good years. Maybe Xavier Edwards keeps some of his crazy .398 BABIP. The team is neither old nor young, with a lot of mid-twenties fliers like Griffin Conine and Matt Mervis hoping to finally get established. 

Instead, the Marlins are 19th in runs scored, 18th in wRC+. It’s not just All-Star Kyle Stowers, either. Five Marlins have at least 100 PA and a 100 wRC+, and that excludes August sensation Jakob Marsee, with a .329/.398/.671 line in his first taste of the majors. This is their best offense since 2017. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara’s miserable return to play has been offset by the comebacks of Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera, elevating the group into the game’s top 20. The defense has been much, much better than I expected, ranking fourth in Defensive Runs Saved, eighth in Outs Above Average, and is better at almost every spot, per OAA.