Friday, October 16, 2026

Newlsetter Excerpt, October 16, 2026 -- "Milwaukee Broomers"

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Postseason 2026: Milwaukee Broomers 

October 16, 2026


Last night, when Shohei Ohtani blasted a three-run homer in the second inning to put the Dodgers up 4-0, it seemed like we’d be headed for a fifth NLCS game. The Brewers and Pat Murphy would work their B bullpen, the Dodgers would get some tack-on runs to make their stats look better, and we’d get a Tarik Skubal/Jacob Misiorowski rematch tonight. When the Brewers went down 1-2-3 in the top of the third, that path seemed set.


The Brewers, though, just kept coming. Even in that three-up, three-down third, Cooper Pratt worked a nine-pitch strikeout. In the fourth, Brice Turang drew a six-pitch walk, and Jake Bauers drove in two runs with a double on the sixth pitch he saw to make it 4-2. Taking the mound in the fifth, Glasnow needed five pitches to retire each of the first two batters of the inning, and he wouldn’t get through the frame. 


When I think about Brewers 4, Dodgers 0, the first thing I’ll picture is a Brewers batter taking a pitch just outside the zone, or fouling one off just inside it. The Brewers saw 4.13 pitches per plate appearance in sweeping the Dodgers, a mark that would have comfortably led MLB this season. They drew 18 walks in four games. They drew 22 full counts and slugged .813 with four extra-base hits when they did. The signature moments of the series were a 12-pitch walk and an 11-pitch homer, both by NLCS MVP Jake Bauers.


There are going to be people who really, really want the Brewers’ success to be about smallball and contact and running the bases and defense. The Brewers do play excellent defense and they run the bases pretty well and they do use one-run strategies. The key to their offense, though, is patience, and in this series, they leaned into the Three True Outcomes. They combined for 70 home runs, walks, and strikeouts for a TTO% of 47%. Adam Dunn’s career TTO mark is 49%. They swung at just 45% of the pitches they saw, slightly above their league-leading 44% mark during the season. The 2026 Brewers have a lot more in common with the 1990s Yankees than they do the 2010s Royals. 


The Brewers didn’t chase the game, but nevertheless they caught it. When they did, tying it in the fifth, taking the lead in the sixth, Pat Murphy went for the kill. He called on Aaron Ashby to start the seventh and never looked back. Continuing a bit of a theme this October, Ashby threw the final three innings of the game, facing 11 batters, walking no one and striking out three. Ashby threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in the NLCS. But for Bauers going nova, Ashby might have been the series MVP. Ashby allowed a couple of doubles, but he followed them by wiping out the Dodgers’ hitters.


After finally breaking through with some big hits in the second, the Dodgers went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position over the rest of their season. One-out doubles in the sixth and eighth, and a leadoff double in the seventh, were all left stranded. The Dodgers, contra the Brewers, didn’t draw a walk after the third batter of the game, and they got to just two three-ball counts over the game’s final eight innings.


The Dodgers hit .185/.270/.250 with one homer and 11 runs in the series, and that’s why they’re going home early. They didn’t score in their last seven times up. The quality of their at-bats late in the game was terrible; Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, and Teoscar Hernandez all were made to look awful in high-leverage spots by JoJo Romero and Ashby.


Nothing worked for L.A. Glasnow, staked to a 4-0 lead, couldn’t get out of the fifth. The bullpen walked in the tying run and allowed solo homers to Garrett Mitchell to break the tie and David Hamilton to extend the lead. Dave Roberts issued another bad intentional walk that led to the tying run, had Kiké Hernandez bunt (I cannot get clarity on whether this was a manager call or not; it may not have been) a runner to third with nobody out to set up a very bad Ohtani/Ashby matchup, and tried to get three innings out of Edwin Diaz. 


The Dodgers were the second-best team in a playoff series for the first time in a long time. All of the concerns that existed about this team a week ago -- aging offense, weak corner defense, erratic bullpen -- were on display over four games. What was supposed to save the team was the starting rotation, which carried the team to last year’s championship. Dodger starting pitchers were staked to leads, however small, in every game, and blew each of them. (Technically, Glasnow left with a lead, but I don’t think that’s how history will remember his effort after being up 4-0 and being charged with four runs.) Their starters had a 6.50 ERA in this series and allowed four homers. 


The Brewers are 7-1 in the tournament, and that’s while getting just 8 1/3 innings from Jacob Misiorowski, with Jackson Chourio hitting .171/.211/.343 out of the leadoff spot, with Cooper Pratt making three errors on the record and a couple of other plays not made ($1, Jamey Newberg) that cost the Brewers. They’re firing on most cylinders, just not all of them. Now they get a week of rest for a World Series in which they’ll be the better team and have home-field advantage. Their story may not have peaked.



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Thursday, October 15, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 15, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: The Same Gag Twice"

 

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I can’t put this on Roberts. I think had he lifted Snell after six innings with a lead, it would have been reasonable. I also think he would have inspired all the same criticisms that Cash did in 2020, regardless of the result. Forget “cruising” or outcomes: Snell was pounding the zone and holding his velocity. He wasn’t past any pitch-count markers; he threw 100 pitches twice in September and at least 90 in five straight starts in late summer. Tactically, there were two lefties coming up in the inning. There was a lot more evidence that Snell should start the seventh than there was that he should come out.


Both Cash in 2020 and Roberts in 2026 made choices that made sense in an effort to win the game. You judge the process, not the result, and both managers’ processes were sound. The other guys get paid, too.


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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Hero Takes a Fall"

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This is a pretty bad matchup for Snell. Among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year, he had the lowest rate of throwing pitches in the strike zone, doing so just over a third of the time. The Brewers will take and take until they get pointed to first base or they see a pitch they like. They had the highest walk rate and lowest chase rate of any team in the game. They have a 12% walk rate in these playoffs, highest of any team. 


A guy who won’t throw strikes against a team that won’t swing at balls. There’s your storyline. 


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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 13, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Twelve Pitches, Nine Minu...no, wait."

 

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The Rays cut the deficit to 4-3 in the bottom of the frame. Now, a one-run deficit in the top of the ninth is a high-leverage spot, never more so than in a best-of-seven. Cash, whose bullpen is better rested than the U.S. House of Representatives, had used his best lefty and third-best righty. He had Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker available. Instead, he called on Cole Sulser, well down the depth chart. It was an inexplicable choice given the importance of the situation. Sulser somehow allowed a hit to Angel Martinez, breaking Martinez’s 0-for-16 run, balked him to second, and then gave up Ramirez’s second nonsense hit in half an hour, fisted into left field for a key insurance run. Ramirez, beaten twice in two at-bats, found two singles that led to five runs and a 7-3 Guardians win. 


The last two runs are worth highlighting. With first and second and two out and Jo Adell up, Ramirez broke for third on an 0-1 pitch, which Adell fouled off. Two pitches later, on 1-2, Ramirez went again. Junior Caminero moved to cover third, and Adell hit a ground ball right to where Caminero would have been. The attempted steal turned an out into a two-run double.


Guardians. The little ball with a big story to tell.


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Monday, October 12, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: ALCS Preview"

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When projecting a playoff series, I try to think of paths. What ways could each team beat the other, and how realistic are they? It’s hard to identify the Guardians’ paths through the Rays. They are off-rotation, with a heavily worked pitching staff, and they have the second-best everything. The Rays’ weak spot is one of the worst infield defenses in baseball by Outs Above Average. The Guardians, though, have a bottom-ten groundball rate (higher, though, since the trade deadline). The Guardians manage the strike zone well, with the best offensive K/BB in the AL. Rays pitchers had the fifth-lowest walk rate of any team this decade. If we take strikeouts and walks off the table and evaluate a team’s offense based on how it did when the bat hit the ball, the Guardians were second-to-last in the majors, just ahead of the Blue Jays. No team barreled fewer baseballs. 


I don’t see how the Guardians are going to score, and I don’t think the current version of this pitching staff can hang enough zeroes to win a bunch of low-scoring games. Everything, save perhaps seven innings of Gavin Williams, points to the Rays. We’ll call it a gentleman’s sweep, Rays in five.


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Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: NLCS Game One"

 

 

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The Brewers faded a so-so start by The Miz and got to the sixth with a lead. Then the bullpen took over. DL Hall, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, and Trevor Megill threw 4 2/3 shutout innings, Murphy alternating lefties and righties over the final five frames. Ashby was leaking oil at the end of his 26-pitch outing, and Trevor Megill did not have his command at all, but the Dodgers were unable to take advantage, going hitless over the final three innings, scoreless over the final seven, winless over the last nine.


The margins are incredibly fine at this level, two great teams, two great pitchers. Misiorowski was a little off and couldn’t get out of the fifth. Skubal made a couple of mistakes and both led to runs. The Dodgers had 11 hard-hit balls, but none of them longer than 385 feet in the air. (I joked about the league finding a pallet of Happy Fun Balls from 2019 for this round; they were definitely not in play last night.) 


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