Newsletter Excerpt, September 18, 2026 -- "Reset"

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American League West

Astros      77-76  .503   --

Rangers     76-77  .497    1

The Astros’ magic number is 8.

Astros: 3 vs. ATL, 2 @ SEA, 4 @ SAC

Rangers: 3 vs. TOR, 3 vs. NYM, 3 @ MIN

The Rangers ate a brutal loss last night, as Jacob Latz continues to lose steam in September. He’s allowed runs in three of his seven appearances, with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. Last night, called upon in the eighth inning for the fourth time in 12 days, he allowed a three-run homer to Trevor Story. Latz’s ability to go more than an inning and dominate right-handed batters saved a Rangers bullpen that projected to be the team’s weak link. The workload doesn’t look like much on the page -- 68 innings in 55 games -- but there’s no question he’s carried a heavy leverage load this year. 

 

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Newsletter Excerpt, September 17, 2026 -- "Brewing Champagne"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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It would help level expectations if we would stop talking about the Brewers like they’re Hickory High School. Over the last ten years, they have the fourth-best record in baseball. They have six division titles and nine playoff appearances. They’ve turned over the GM and the manager and kept winning without a hitch. They have the best record in baseball this year and the best farm system. Forbes estimated their 2025 revenue at $354 million, and they net close to another $100 million in local revenue sharing. The Brewers are worth at least $2 billion. It’s all right to not treat them like Old Willie’s farm on the outskirts of town.

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Newsletter Excerpt, September 15, 2026 -- "Beaten to the Punch"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Sox win takes their disaster scenario off the table. The worst that can happen over the next two games is they lose them both and leave Cleveland a half-game behind the Guardians, tied in the loss column, and holding the tiebreaker. If they can win one of the remaining two games, they’ll leave town up 1 1/2, up two in the loss column, holding the tiebreaker and with a magic number of eight. Two years ago today, they were 35-115, and now we’re talking about their magic number.

We’re doing so in part because a seventh-round pick on his fourth organization in five years became an All-Star out of the blue, posted a four-win season, and for seven minutes last night wouldn’t let himself be struck out by a guy with 235 punchies this year. For all the moves Chris Getz made for top prospects to put this team together, it’s Peters, DFA’d by the Rays in December, who is second on the team in bWAR. It’s Peters who leads the team in Defensive Runs Saved and doubles and 18-pitch plate appearances.

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Newsletter Excerpt, September 14, 2026 -- "Cleveland/Sox!"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Sox are up a half-game in the Central and 6-4 in the season series. As long as they avoid being swept, they’re in decent shape. Sweeping the Guardians would just about end the race. Winning two would put them up 1 1/2 games with the tiebreaker. Losing two would leave them a half-game out with the tiebreaker. It’s only a Guards sweep, which would flip both the lead and the tiebreaker, that dramatically changes this story.

Right now, the Guardians are the better of these two teams, with a significant edge in the rotation, a better pen, and a lesser (but competitive) offense. Of course, in what amounts to a best-of-three, being better only takes you so far. In a September that doesn’t have enough critical head-to-head series, I am looking forward to locking in on these games over the next three days.

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Newsletter Excerpt, September 11, 2026 -- "Wandering Into the Weekend"

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With a nod to the great Jason Kirk, here’s a path through this weekend of ball. Please, though, go outside at some point. It’s good for you, and it will be cold soon enough.

Friday, 2:20 ET: Pirates at Cubs (MLBN and local RSNs)

Friday, 7:10 ET: Astros at Rays (local RSNs); dip in on Orioles/Jays and Phillies/Braves

Saturday, 3:07 ET: Orioles at Blue Jays (local RSNs); dip in on Guardians/Twins at 4 

Saturday, 7:15 ET: Phillies at Braves (local RSNs)

Saturday, 11:00 ET: Louisiana (not Lafayette anymore) at USC (BTN). Go Trojans! Beat the Cajuns!

Sunday, 1:40 ET: Astros at Rays (local RSNs); dip in on Guardians/Twins and Reds/Brewers at 2

Sunday, 7:20 ET: Padres at Giants (Peacock)

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Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2026 -- "The Bucs Start Here"

 

 This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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This month, though, is about dreaming on 2027. That 30-21 record with Griffin and Cruz is already proof of concept. Even with Skenes’s “off year” (3.08 FIP, ninth in MLB; 21.3% K-BB, tenth; 4.2 fWAR, 12th), the Pirates have the sixth-best rotation in baseball by fWAR and FIP. Just nine teams have gotten more innings from their starters. Four starters, including Carmen Mlodzinski, have FIPs in the 3.00s. Right-hander Seth Hernandez is a top-ten prospect who could reach the majors next summer. Of the 16 Pirates producing more than one bWAR this year, 14 are under control for next year; admittedly, replacing Brandon Lowe’s offense will be a challenge.

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