Friday, December 4, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, December 4, 2020 -- "Mailbag"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"It’s funny, I’ve been holding off writing about 2021, although some of my concerns have leaked into recent pieces. I don’t think the business model works without fans in the stands. It was one thing to do it over 60 games ad hoc with all the attendant pressure to return. It’s quite another to do it intentionally over 162 games. It seems more and more like there will be some attendance allowed in some places in 2021, but it will vary by market and maybe by month."

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, December 3, 2020 -- "Non-Tenders"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Not many other names stand out. Schwarber is popular and famous and has five career WAR through his age-27 season. For all the power he is supposed to have, he’s slugged .500 once in the greatest slugging environment in baseball history. At his best, he has been a two-win player. Another five-plus guy, he might have made $10 million next year in arbitration, and you can find his skill set in a lot of cheaper packages.

"With all that said, there’s maybe a 20% chance he has David Ortiz’s career from here on out. Some team could pick up him, tell him to leave his glove home, and unleash the four-win DH that has been locked inside. When Schwarber hits .285/.390/.555 for the Rays next year, don’t say you weren’t warned."
 

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, December 1, 2020 -- "The Minors"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"MLB has done an exceptionally poor job of making what should have been a simple case: The affiliation system built in the 1960s is antiquated and needs to be streamlined to match the way ballplayers are developed in the 2020s. MLB was never taking teams away from cities -- certainly not the way minor-league owners routinely do -- just ending its practice of providing paid players to those teams."

Monday, November 30, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, November 30, 2020 -- "Random Player Comments, 11/30/20"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Ozuna caught pretty unlucky here. He bet on himself by taking the one-year pillow contract, went out and had a monster season in the games that were played, and now is a free agent again in the worst player market since collusion. He is the type of player -- age 30, bat-first, unlikely to ever repeat his last season -- I would normally avoid. Ozuna’s 2020 batting line, though, isn’t as out of context as it looks at baseball-reference. He is likely a .280/.340/.490 hitter in 2021 and maybe for a couple years after that. We talk a lot about pitchers who are either hurt or good, and Ozuna may be the position-player analogue to that. The number of teams that could use a pure bat is unusually high for a high-offense era like this, but when you look at how little teams like the Rangers, Indians, Brewers and Rockies got from their left fielders last year, the market for Ozuna on a three-yearish deal should be strong."
 
 

Monday, November 23, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, November 23, 2020 -- "Non-Tenders"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Those are all pre-pandemic numbers, based on that cycle above: pay player, win games, raise revenues. You can think the owners are collectively wrong and behave badly most of the time, while also seeing that the 2020-21 cycle is sui generis, and justifies conservative behavior given what could be 20 million fans in attendance, total, over two years."

Friday, November 20, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, November 20, 2020 -- "Random Player Comments"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.


Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Paxton will end up with some kind of 1+1 deal, probably for a team that needs to gamble on less-expensive upside with an eye towards winning in 2021: Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Brewers all come to mind, and that’s not an exhaustive list. Me, I think I’d make my pitching investment elsewhere."