Newsletter Excerpt, October 26, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Game Two"

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I’ve seen, in any number of places, praise for this Series, for how these two teams play the game. I think that’s a storyline based on payrolls and locations and the absence of home runs. The first 18 innings of this series have not been well-played at all, filled with mistakes and misbegotten one-run strategies and errors both physical and mental. If the Yankees played the defense the Rays played in Game Two...well, they did, just in a different series...the story would be how the manager should be fired. Neither of these teams has been at their best, with the Brewers just a little bit better. 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 24, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Game One"

 

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There was some good defense in this game to go with the bad. William Contreras cut down two runners trying to steal. The excellent throws by Mesa and Williamson to get Hamilton in the fourth are what made Hamilton’s stumble costly. The Brewers nearly ended the game on a gorgeous 4-6-3 double play on which Cooper Pratt just barely came off the second-base bag, a moment caught after a long replay review. I think it is most likely the replay decision was correct, but there was enough doubt in my mind -- Pratt’s cleats may have brushed the bag just before he threw the ball to first -- that I wasn’t sure the call on the field was reversible. 

There was a lot of baseball in this baseball game. It wasn’t always good or pretty, but it was a lot. The Golden Corral of baseball games. 

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 23, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Game One Pregame"

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We just watched a team lose a best-of-seven in part because it couldn’t get its #2 starter to the mound a second time. The Guardians didn’t have much choice in how they used Gavin Williams in the ALCS, based on his ALDS usage. The Rays do, and yet they’re slotting their #1 for Game Six and their #2 for Game Seven. Moreover, they wouldn’t be asking Rasmussen to do something radical. They’re not treating him like he’s Jim Bunning in ’64. They’re asking him to do what top MLB pitchers do in October, work on the fifth day in an effort to win a championship.

The Rays think they’re making sure Rasmussen makes his next start on five days’ rest, then the one after that on five days’ rest. I think they’re helping him make one start on five days’ rest, and his next on 120 days’ rest. As good as Rasmussen has been this year, it’s just very hard for me to take him seriously as a #1 if he can’t work effectively on four days’ rest in the World Series.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 22, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: World Series Preview"

 

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The Rays’ path to a championship is through their starting rotation. Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Martinez, in some order, pound the strike zone, deny free passes and make opponents try to win on batted balls. Those guys turn things over to the Rays’ bullpen, and you’ve heard me on those stats: third-best record when leading after six, best when leading after seven, 85-0 when leading after eight. Even with Cash throwing Seymour to the wolves, the Rays’ pen has coughed up just one lead in these playoffs, and none after the sixth inning. 

The Brewers, the better team during the season by a significant amount, the more impressive team in these playoffs while playing a more difficult slate, just have more ways to win. They can draw walks or generate offense on contact and one-run strategies. They can hit singles or homers. They can strike batters out and make plays on defense. They have more lineup depth and bullpen depth. As we saw against the Dodgers and Padres, they can win from behind. 

As I write this, there’s some doubt about how the Rays will lay out their starting rotation. I don’t think it will matter to anything but the series length. Brewers in six, maybe five if Martinez starts Game One.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 21, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Rest vs. Rust, Third Time Around"

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Since 2022, teams coming off long rest and holding a rest edge have gone 13-12 in their first game back. That described the Dodgers against the Blue Jays in World Series Game One last year, when the Jays jumped them for an 11-4 win. The Dodgers’ loss last year added to a very small sample of results, since 2012, in which one team started an LCS or the World Series with at least five days’ rest. 

I wrote this last year:

I wonder if there is something to getting past four days, which is the length of the modern All-Star break, that has an effect. Since 2012, teams playing the first game of an LCS or World Series with at least five days’ rest and a rest advantage over their opponent have gone 1-4 [now 1-5] in the first game back. That’s a sample size of five [now six] games, so I went back to the start of the century: Since 2001, LCS and Series teams with at least five days’ rest and a rest advantage are 5-9 [now 5-10] in their first game back. 

I’m not 100% convinced this is signal, but it at least directionally supports the idea that once you get to five days off at this point in October, teams may be a bit thrown off by the rest.

The Brewers enter Friday’s Game One after seven days off and with a four-day rest advantage over the Rays.

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Newsletter Excerpt, October 20, 2026 -- "Postseason 2026: Tampa Bay Hur-Rays"

 

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Caminero and Diaz hit those homers off pitchers who didn’t have much left to give. Even with the rainout, a blowout loss, and some offdays, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis had been worked extremely hard over the last couple of weeks. The two of them pitched in nine of the Guardians’ 11 playoff games over 17 days. Nine appearances in 17 days would be a lot for a reliever in the regular season; to pitch so often in postseason conditions was that much harder. Vogt’s decision to lift Parker Messick after two innings in Game Five was a factor in the team’s Game Six loss. Vogt got 13 2/3 innings from Messick in four starts, turned his #3, Foster Griffin, into a bulk guy, and buried his #4, Tanner Bibee. He simply went too far in turning games over to his bullpen this month, needing to have more faith in what was a good rotation. The quality of the Guardians’ core and the weakness of the AL Central means Vogt will likely have more chances to get it right.

Debating the pitching decisions of a manager whose team scored three runs a game, and two runs a game over the final five contests, seems a little beside the point. There’s probably nothing Stephen Vogt could have done to change the fact that the Guardians didn’t hit the ball hard enough to put runs on the board. After having no barreled balls in Game Five, they had just one, DeLauter’s double off Peralta, in Game Six. For the series, they slugged .325 with ten extra-base hits, and until last night, the Rays had taken away the Guardians’ walks: 11 allowed in the first five games. 

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