Monday, February 23, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, February 23, 2026 -- "Rhys Hoskins and the Guardians"

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There was a time in my career when I would have praised the Guardians for repeatedly making the playoffs using only talent they developed internally, for not spending money on free agents. When I started covering baseball, opportunity cost was real. The game didn’t have the massive amounts of central revenue it does today, and it had a very small amount of local revenue sharing. Neither of those things have been true for some time, so the kind of team-building that was praiseworthy in the 1990s is now something to scorn. The Guardians have done nothing this winter to build on their successes of the last two seasons. In fact, they head into 2026 with a payroll $20 million lower than they started 2024 with.

The Guardians are what is wrong with baseball in the 2020s: a team living off corporate welfare and doing nothing in December to get the fans excited about coming to the ballpark in June.

 

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, February 19. 2026 -- "Nick Castellanos and the Phillies"

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It’s unusual for the Phillies to move on from anyone. If we go back to the start of this Phillies run, in 2022, and look at who played for the team that came within two wins of a title, we find that 85% of the postseason plate appearances for that ’22 team were still with the Phillies in 2025. It’s been a stunning run of stability, though with diminishing returns as the team has aged. The Phillies’ two biggest moves this winter were retaining Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto on multi-year deals. They clearly still believe in this group, if not in their former right fielder. 
 
 

 

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, February 17, 2026 -- "Tony Clark Resigns"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Tony Clark Resigns
Vol. 18, No. 2
February 17, 2026

MLBPA Executive Director Tony Clark, who has led the players’ union since 2013, is expected to resign. Clark leaves his post as an investigations continue of both the MLBPA’s involvement in a joint-licensing program called OneTeam, and a grow-the-game initiative, Players Way, that seems to have been a money pit. Clark’s departure, leaving the MLBPA without its leader, comes against a backdrop of growing rancor, with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire on December 1.

Clark has never been well-regarded in this space. Player unions are best led by labor lawyers, rather than former players. Clark presided over a decade in which the players have mostly been cut out of revenue gains, with teams getting better and better at exploiting a rule set built for the 1970s. He’s backed down from fights, making no claim for his charges on the billions generated by the sale of MLBAM. He and his deputy fended off a challenge to their leadership in 2024, and he now leaves his post with questions about how he handled the union’s -- which means the players’ -- money.

The coming CBA negotiations are a good reason for Clark to step down now. The players need to enter them at full strength, and they now have eight months to pick their leaders. My snap reaction was to think that the players will be better off without Clark, but the more I think about it, I am not sure.

The union, you may recall, accepted the 2022 CBA over the objections of the MLBPA executive committee. The players accepted a deal that rolled over the same problems present in the 2017 CBA, and added both expanded playoffs and a pay-for-performance element that Jerry Reinsdorf had been chasing for 40 years, without gaining the players anything of note. Clark was on the committee that rejected those terms, and now he -- and possibly deputy Bruce Meyer to follow -- is gone.

As I have written before, it is not at all clear that the players have it in them to miss games, via lockout or a strike, to defend even the current system. The DNA of Marvin Miller and Gene Orza, of Mark Belanger and Tom Glavine, is gone. A number of MLBPA veterans have retired in recent years. There are no active players, and almost no active executives, who remember the wars of 1981 and 1994, or the skirmishes of 1985 and 1990 and 2002. Every MLB player has grown up in a world where its peer unions in the NFL, NBA, and NHL have been broken, have acceded to a payroll band, with a fixed percentage of revenues and limited competition for players. They have grown up in a world where baseball teams have become expert, despite a nominally more free market, at keeping money away from players. It’s not at all hard to see the same players who took a bad deal four years ago taking a worse one in 2027.

It’s too early to tell where the MLBPA goes without Clark. Will they retain Meyer, a wartime consigliere, or change leadership teams entirely? Harry Marino, who tried to topple Meyer two years ago, may see an opportunity now. That decision will go a long way towards telling us what kind of stance the union will take this winter. Remember, the last labor lawyer to run the MLBPA, the late Michael Weiner, negotiated a CBA that was bad for the players and got praise for it because it happened without a work stoppage, and in fact was settled before the old CBA had expired. 

No matter who leads it, though, the union faces the same problems I was raising ten years ago almost to the day. From February 16, 2016:

The MLBPA is no longer choosing between getting youth paid and getting veterans paid. Its choice is either standing in the way of industry trends or going to the owners with a plan that acknowledges those trends and rebuilds the compensation structure accordingly. This has to be the central battle in the upcoming CBA negotiations. 


Clark’s MLBPA failed to demand that a compensation structure built for 1976 be updated for the baseball business of 2016. A decade later, all of the trends that limit the market for baseball players still exist, just worse. The current system isn’t working, but the solution isn’t to cave and give the owners the system of their dreams. Rather, the players must insist upon a new one that builds on the union’s longstanding commitment to a free market for players. Who leads the union will matter less than the ideas with which they arrive at the table. 

Monday, February 16, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, February 16, 2026 -- "Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Gallen, who peaked in 2022 and 2023 with top-five NL Cy Young finishes, posted a career-high 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP in his walk year. His four-seam fastball has become very hittable the last two seasons, dragging down the whole profile. Gallen’s knuckle-curve remains effective, a source of both swing-and-miss and ground balls, and outside of a missed month in 2024, he’s been a reliable source of starts for the last four years. The projection systems are in complete agreement on Gallen, seeing him as a two-win pitcher who will take the ball 28-31 times with roughly league-average run prevention. 

By re-signing Gallen, the Diamondbacks complete the re-assembly of last year’s starting rotation. Merrill Kelly, traded at the deadline, had already agreed to return for two years. Of the 162 Diamondbacks starts last year, 140 return, including the top five starters by volume. On the other hand, it was a group that was 21st in FanGraphs WAR, and that was with 11 good Corbin Burnes starts.
 
 
 

Friday, February 13, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, February 13, 2026 -- "Jesus Sanchez and the Blue Jays"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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I just wonder how much the Jays can expect from the players who return. George Springer had a career year at the plate after two seasons of a 96 OPS+. He’s 36 and his legs are barking. Ernie Clement was a hit machine in October, but he’s a true-talent 95 OPS+ guy turning 30. Daulton Varsho, Tyler Heineman, hell, Myles Straw...the Jays had a lot of guys hit better last year than they had in years, and for many of them, ever. I don’t know how much you can count on running that back. The Jays had a 112 wRC+ last year, fourth in MLB, and I’ll make you the Toby Ziegler bet they don’t come all that close to either this year.

They’re going to have to play a lot of defense to make this build work, and I think they actually can do it.
 

 

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Newsletter Excerpt, February 12, 2026 -- "Eugenio Suarez and the Reds"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Adding Suarez means the Reds will have their highest Opening Day payroll in team history, projected at $131 million. Suarez is their highest-paid player, and just two other Reds will make even $10 million. The crop of prospects the Reds brought to the majors a few years ago is starting to get paid, so players like Spencer Steer, Nick Lodolo, Matt McLain, and TJ Freidl are getting bumps over the minimum. Long-term deals for Hunter Greene and Jose Trevino have built-in raises. The Reds won’t have many players at the minimum this year, and those escalations to seven figures add up. Cot’s has the Reds with a top-20 payroll this year, a level they haven’t reached since 2021.

If the Reds get the attendance bump they should get after last year’s playoff run, they’ll comfortably cover the payroll increase and have even more to spend in the future. This is the virtuous circle that drove baseball for the 100 years before aggressive revenue sharing broke the relationship between wins and profitability.