Newsletter Excerpt, March 27, 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: Teams #12-10"

 

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10. Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76, second in NL West, 801 runs scored, 766 runs allowed).

This year’s winner of the award for Best Tee-Ball Team is...

Offense: fifth

Defense: third

Starters: 23rd

Bullpen: 23rd

You can’t say they haven’t invested in pitching, signing Corbin Burnes, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Soroka, and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, and pulling back Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly from that same pool. They built a pretty good bullpen, the best of which will miss most-to-all of the season with injuries. Maybe you ding them for bad judgment in some of their choices, but who was really against signing Burnes or giving Justin Martinez an extension a year ago.

The Diamondbacks have been better than they are given credit for. They won the NL pennant in 2023, missed the playoffs on a three-way tiebreaker at 89-73 the next year, and had to sell at the ’25 deadline when all their best pitchers got hurt, only to go on a 29-18 run that had them a game out of a playoff berth with five to play. They lost a Calvinball game to the Dodgers, though, then got crushed in a bullpen game, ending their run. 

This core is extremely strong, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Ketel Marte each has a top-five MVP finish over the last three years. That group is finally joined by forever prospect Jordan Lawlar, still just 23, and now an outfielder who did post a 14/10 K/BB in spring training. The floor for position players is high, with Alek Thomas plus defensively in center and big defensive upgrades on the infield corners with Carlos Santana and Nolan Arenado. We’ll see how Lawlar works out in left while waiting for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s return, but there’s a pretty good argument that the Diamondbacks won’t have a below-average defender on the field most days.

They’ll have to out-hit and out-field their pitching, and I think they can, especially getting Burnes back at midseason and being able to go into the market to add relievers at the deadline. There’s a very small chance they push the Dodgers in the West, and a much higher one they settle into a wild-card berth.

Upside: The MVP candidates all play at that level together in one season, the team leads MLB in runs scored, and they give the Dodgers a fright at 93-69.

Downside: Even a strong defense can’t keep them from giving up 800 runs, and the bad bullpen causes them to lose a lot of close games. They sell at the deadline, but stay in the mix again and finish 81-81.

Modest Proposal: Drey Jameson didn’t pitch well in the Cactus League, earning a trip to Reno in his return from a couple of years lost to elbow issues. I wouldn’t let him get comfortable in the Biggest Little City in the World, as he was throwing 97 in camp and both his slider and change were getting some whiffs. Of the many options to bolster this pen, I like him the best.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 26. 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: Teams #15-13"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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14. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78, fourth in AL East, 776 runs scored, 748 runs allowed).

I struggled with where to rank the reigning AL champs, whose 2025 run was fueled by depth and defense, and who went out and added one of the top free agents on the market in Dylan Cease. When I ran the numbers, though, all I saw was regression from the team’s core of returning players. The Jays won’t be a lot worse on either side of the ball, about 20 runs each, but throw in a shaky bullpen and it’s unlikely they go 27-20 in one-run games again.

Remember that their entire margin of victory in the division a year ago was extra-innings Calvinball, where they went 10-4. The Yankees were four games better in nine-inning contests and the Red Sox had a slightly better winning percentage than the Jays did in regulation. Flags fly forever, but when I look at the 2025 team, the run through the playoffs gets weighted a lot less than their 90-72 third-order record does.

So it’s no one thing. It’s them scanning as a bit worse than 94-68 last year and seeing them a little worse at the plate, a little worse on the mound. I don’t know which hitters you can expect to be better than they were in 2025; George Springer and Daulton Varsho had their best seasons, Alejandro Kirk his second-best. I wrote a few times last year just how much they got from the bench, guys like Tyler Heineman and Myles Straw. Kazuma Okamoto could replace Bo Bichette’s 2025 production; he’s unlikely to improve on it. They had a good health record last year, and if that turns even a little, they’ll be exposed.

Adding Cease and Cody Ponce builds out the starting rotation nicely. They start the year under the gun injury-wise, but we’ll eventually see them get Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber to the mound. The pen...well, it’s last year’s pen with Tyler Rogers added to the mix. By the end of the postseason, John Schneider had a pretty small circle of trust, so we’ll see whether he regains comfort with Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, and Mason Fluharty. As the starters get healthy, Eric Lauer should slide into the pen. I ranked them 13th, which is just outside the group of good bullpens and into the next tier down.

For all the struggles I had getting here, I end up as confident in this prediction as in any of the 30 I’ve made. This is a good team, not a great one, with every chance to get back to the tournament and make another deep run.

Upside: They need the pitching to be just a bit better, not a lot better, than I project to get to 88-74 and the playoffs.

Downside: The lack of depth gets exposed, as last year’s bench is this year’s problem. It’s still a high floor, say 81-81. The Jays have a small range of possible outcomes.

Modest Proposal: The Jays open with a super-soft schedule, four non-contenders wrapped around a visit from the Dodgers. Schneider should use the time to experiment a bit with the lineup and bullpen, figure out his best options in the outfield corners and the seventh through ninth innings.

 

 

 

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 26, 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: Opening Day"

 

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You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter

Season Preview 2026: Opening Day

March 26, 2026

Zac Gallen hasn’t given up a hit yet. Riley Greene hasn’t struck out yet. Ryan Helsley hasn’t blown a save yet.

The Rockies haven’t lost yet. The Angels haven’t lost yet. The Nationals haven’t lost yet.

Paul Skenes vs. Juan Soto, appx. 1:28 p.m.

No one has flown the W, or raised the Jolly Roger, or hung their 2025 pennant yet. No one has asked for peanuts and Cracker Jack yet, or serenaded Caroline, or thanked god for being a country boy. 

Hunter Brown vs. Mike Trout, appx. 4:15 p.m.

You haven’t tasted the hot garlic fries yet. You haven’t wiped sticky pink cotton candy off your daughter’s cheeks yet. You haven’t had that first beer, second pretzel, or third hot dog yet. 

Tarik Skubal vs. Fernando Tatis Jr., appx. 4:22 p.m.

Some time today, Pete Crow-Armstrong will turn a triple into an out, and Masyn Winn will turn a single into two outs. Chandler Simpson will go home to second, Trea Turner will go first to third, Kyle Schwarber will go home to home, and Elly De La Cruz will just go.

Jacob Misiorowski will throw his fastball. Nathan Eovaldi will throw his curve. Cristopher Sanchez will throw his change-up. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will throw whatever comes to mind.

Corbin Carroll vs. Will Smith, appx. 8:37 p.m.

Think about being nine years old, bat in your hand, sun in the sky, stirrups pulled up, dreaming of Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, of being in that club. Well, Kevin McGonigle joins the club today. JJ Wetherholt joins the club today. Carson Benge joins the club today. Dreams, held since childhood, come true today.

Andres Muñoz vs. Jose Ramirez, appx. 12:37 a.m. 

No one has surprised us yet. Maybe Austin Hays, or Brooks Lee, or Caleb Durbin, the baseball cards you shuffle past hoping to find a Shohei Ohtani or a Bryce Harper, elevates his game for six glorious months. 

That’s the thing about Opening Day. We get handed this beautiful present, these 2,430 games over 186 days, and today we open it up and see what’s inside. It’s never the same thing twice. Last-to-first might be in there. 60 homers might be in there. A perfect game might be in there. A ballpark you’ve never been to might be in there. Seven games in five parks in nine days with your dad might be in there. 

Joy...joy is definitely in there. 

So whether you’re at home with Gary, Keith, and Ron, or shivering in the bleachers at Wrigley, or just taking as much of it in as you can at your desk with three screens and some leftover pizza, enjoy it. It’s Opening Day, and anything is possible.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 25, 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: Teams #18-16"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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16. Kansas City Royals (83-79, third in AL Central, 699 runs scored, 671 runs allowed).

At some point in the winter, I said the Royals would win the 2026 AL Central. Then they stopped doing anything and the Tigers signed Framber Valdez and here we are, with another Royals team that feels like it needed one more big move to get over the line.

Even at that, this is going to be a fun group. In Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans, Maikel Garcia, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Carter Jensen, the Royals have a championship-caliber core of six guys 28 and under that few teams can match. Ragans was someone I hyped up last year only to see him crushed by batted-ball luck and sidelined by groin and shoulder problems. Caglianone is the apple of my eye this year, someone I expect to hit 35 bombs and get some downballot MVP votes. Oh, yeah, there’s also a reasonable candidate for best player in baseball in BWJ. 

I just wish there was more in the next group. Salvador Perez is 36 and not that impressive as a DH. Kyle Isbel, Jonathan India, Isaac Collins are one-way players -- my skepticism of Collins’s 2026 season stands -- and there’s a big dropoff from Ragans to the rest of the rotation. The team’s cash payroll is up, but only to where it was in 2017, about $143 million, and the team is one market-value star behind the Tigers in the projections. The Tigers went out and got Valdez, the Royals got Lane Thomas, and that’s the difference between the two teams now.

It will be interesting to see how Kauffman Stadium plays with the fences pulled in. We’re a decade removed from the conversation about how the Royals reinvented baseball with contact and speed and rejecting home runs. Maybe I’m the only one who remembers it. Today, it’s amusing to me to see the Royals join many, many other teams over the last 20 years in making their ballpark more homer-friendly. JJ Picollo told MLB’s Anne Rogers, “Ultimately, we concluded that we would be a better team offensively. With our current pitching staff, the changes in the dimensions wouldn’t impact [pitching] negatively as much as it impacts our offense positively.” That’s a big bet on Seth Lugo’s ability to keep the ball in a smaller yard. 

Upside: It’s way up there. Of all the teams in this muddled middle, the Royals are the one I could see putting the pedal down and running away with its division, call it 95-67. 

Downside: The Royals have more pitching depth than they had in recent seasons, with righty Luinder Avila among the live arms who could step up later this year. I think that depth protects them from falling too far, so 80-82 is the floor.

Modest Proposal: Be aggressive in the trade market. The Royals are one left-handed hitting outfielder short, and I don’t mean Adam Frazier. The Red Sox still have a logjam; go get Jarren Duran. See if the Twins will move Matt Wallner. Monitor Lars Nootbaar’s return from heel surgery and grab him once healthy. Isaac Collins and Kyle Isbel aren’t going to get it done.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 24, 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: Teams #21-19"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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20. San Francisco Giants (80-82, fourth in NL West, 725 runs scored, 717 runs allowed).

The story here isn’t going to be the .500 roster, which will once again play .500ish baseball. No, we’re all watching to see what Tony Vitello, hired away from the University of Tennessee with no pro baseball experience, will do running the Giants. His hire was the biggest swing Buster Posey has taken, bigger than the Willy Adames signing and the Rafael Devers trade. It’s Posey going well off the board to find a manager who fits his vision for the team he runs.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 24, 2026 -- "Season Preview 2026: For Entertainment Purposes Only"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Nationals under 65.5 wins (DK). I have the Nats at 56-106, making this the biggest gap on the board and one I am very eager to give out. The Nationals are going to allow an absolute ton of runs, and there’s at least some chance they engage in a full tank by trading CJ Abrams and even James Wood along the way this year. 

Rays over 77.5 wins (DK). One of the surprises, when I ran my numbers, is the way the Rays popped at 86-76. They outscored their opponents by 31 runs a year ago, so they started from a higher baseline than their 77-85 record would indicate. They shuffled deck chairs this winter; I’m seeing a lot of pitching depth, including in the bullpen, and enough of a power core to support it. I don’t have to completely buy into the projected record to see a big gap between that and the posted line.

Cubs over 88.5 wins (DK). The Cubs outscored their opponents by nearly a full run a game last year, and they return more or less the same talent, with some upgrades in the bullpen. I have them as the second-best team in baseball at 95-67, giving me a lot of cushion here.

Angels under 70.5 wins (DK). I am not at all seeing a 70-win roster in Anaheim, having them closer to 60 than 70 at 64-98. The offense might be average, and it supports below-average pitching and what I have as the worst defense in baseball. 

Astros under 86.5 wins (DK). There’s a good argument for not picking two teams in the same division in the same direction because wins are finite and schedules are unbalanced. So take seriously my willingness to tack on the Astros as my last team-total pick. I have them as a .500 team, and if Josh Hader has to miss a lot of time -- injury optimism is not your friend, as Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski would say -- they could lose some extra games late thanks to a shaky pen around him.