Sunday, October 30, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 30, 2022 -- "Game Two"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Wheeler pitched away from his four-seamer last night, throwing just 15 in his five innings. He may have felt something; his best fastball last night was about a full tick below his average fastball in his last start against the Padres. The combination of his pitch selection and the missing velocity is something to watch for if Wheeler gets back to the mound in this Series."

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 29, 2022 -- "Ghosts"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Thomson put on a clinic, using his best lefty, Jose Alvarado, to face Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in the fifth, rather than the one you might expect to see in the fifth inning, Brad Hand. He later tapped his lefty starter, Ranger Suarez, to face that same part of the lineup in the seventh and eighth. He went to his best reliever, Seranthony Dominguez, to preserve a tie in  the eighth and ninth. In all, Thomson got 5 2/3 shutout innings from his bullpen on a night when they needed every single zero."

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 27, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: World Series Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Thomson’s goal should be to ape Dave Martinez’s work in ’19, using those six pitchers for as many innings as possible, keeping the Astros away from the soft underbelly of his staff. The Phillies are unlikely to score runs in bunches the way they did in getting here, and will need to win low-scoring games to win the World Series."

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, October 25, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: A Thousand-Word Play"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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From Sunday night:

@joe_sheehan: Oh, I want to do 2,000 words on that play.

The play in question was a double play turned by the Yankees in the ninth inning off a Jeremy Peña bunt. It contained, in ten seconds, as much baseball as entire games in this postseason have had.

The Astros led 6-5 with the top of the order due to bat in the ninth against Clay Holmes. Jose Altuve led off the inning with a soft single to right, giving him his first two-hit game of this postseason.

Jeremy Peña, who had earlier hit a three-run homer to tie the game, saw Josh Donaldson playing on the dirt and put down a bunt to the left side. While it wasn’t a perfect bunt, Peña did well to get his bat on the pitch, a 95-mph two-seamer up and with a ton of armside run, a very difficult pitch to bunt. He was clearly bunting for a hit, with Donaldson back and Holmes, being right-handed, falling off to the right side. Had Peña gotten it just a bit more towards the third-base line, he probably would have succeeded.

“Never bunt” is a great slogan, and one of the triumphs of the stathead revolution is getting teams to all but eliminate the use of the sacrifice bunt. It's usually a play that costs a team more than it helps. Bunting for a hit, though, is often a good play, an underused one. Bunting is harder than it once was, for the same reasons hitting is harder than it once was. But in situations where just reaching base is valuable -- with nobody out, mostly -- it can be a weapon. Bunting for a hit and bunting for a run -- squeeze plays -- are exceptions to the “never bunt” rule.

Holmes made a great read and react, stopping his momentum and getting to the ball with plenty of time to throw out Peña. He had the ball while Peña was less than halfway down the line. Holmes, though, double-clutched, making the play at first a bit closer, but he still threw out Peña by about half a step. For a right-handed pitcher, this was a very good defensive play. To this point, everyone had executed, Holmes a little better than Peña.

It wasn’t a notable play until Jose Altuve took a shot. Seeing that third base was entirely uncovered, Altuve never broke stride going around second and took off for third. Josh Donaldson was over by the mound, having charged the bunt. Shortstop Oswaldo Peraza had jogged towards second to take a possible throw that never came. When Altuve rounded second, there was no one within 40 feet of third base.

I love this aggressiveness. Take an undefended base! More than that, I love the awareness. Altuve, who had the play in front of him, picked up that Donaldson was far from the bag on his way to second and never slowed down.

Donaldson, to his credit, realized there was a problem. In a series, in a month, when his failure to hit has been one of the big reasons the Yankees’ season is over, he still showed up in the field. As Altuve rounded second, and as Holmes’s throw arrived at first, Donaldson began to break back to the bag. Now, it’s a footrace.

Well, it’s not just a footrace, because Donaldson needs the ball. This is where Anthony Rizzo comes in. Rizzo likes to use his arm. One of the images I keep from those great Cubs teams is Rizzo charging a bunt, often ending up a few feet from home plate in an effort to make a play on the lead runner. It’s a wonder no one ever swung away and took his head off with a liner. In his 20s, Rizzo was regularly throwing out 20 guys a year at second base, almost always among the league leaders in doing so. Rizzo threw out just five this year, which is mostly due to the disappearance of sacrifice bunting as he moved to a DH league.

Rizzo’s throw on the Altuve play is a reminder that he still retains the skill, assist totals be damned. Nearly flat-footed, he hit a moving Donaldson on Donaldson’s glove side about six feet from the bag, beating Altuve by...well, Altuve was barely in the frame when Donaldson went to tag him. Although Altuve made his decision to go to third pretty early, he was still running straight to the second-base bag and ended up making a very wide turn. That cost him here, and in trying to get to third he overslid the bag. I can’t tell if Donaldson got Altuve before he arrived, but Altuve never came close to holding the bag and was easily called out.

The term “TOOTBLAN” (Thrown Out On The Bases Like A Nincompoop) has become a fun part of the lexicon, and I use it a lot myself. Not all baserunning outs are TOOTBLANs, though. Sometimes they’re just plays where everyone executes and the defense wins. That was the case here. With the base undefended, with one out (Altuve turned his head to see if Peña would be out at first), with a fast baserunner, with Yordan Alvarez likely to be walked no matter where Altuve stopped, all of the green lights were on. Altuve, slowed by his path to third, was just beat by a good throw and a nice hustle play by Donaldson.

So much of baseball happens between the mound and home plate now that we forget how it is supposed to be a game that happens everywhere else. In its design, the “pitcher” was just that, someone who pitched the ball to the batter, underhand, to start the action. Nowadays, hurlers all too often end the action. This play -- a bunt, a sharp fielding play, aggressive baserunning, a strong throw -- is a rare play this postseason that has the DNA of baseball as it was meant to be played.
 

Monday, October 24, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 24, 2022 -- "Heroes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"So when Bryce Harper walks to the plate in the bottom of the eighth, his team down a run, a baserunner on first base, the pennant on the line, it’s an opportunity. Not for Harper, but for us. Sure, it’s a fun story when Trent Grisham or Jean Segura emerges as the bold-faced name for a day or a week, and baseball has a long history of those as well. October makes heroes."

Friday, October 21, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 21, 2022 -- "No Days Off"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"If the series does get extended, Aaron Boone may have to do something he almost never does. Boone was the first manager to stop using relievers on three straight days, not doing it once in the 2019 season. He did it once in 2020, three times in 2021 (twice with LOOGYs going limited stints), and not once this year. Until using Wandy Peralta three straight days last weekend, he had never done it in the playoffs. Can Boone go to the well and ask pitchers who have not been used aggressively to pitch on three straight days in a playoff setting? Whether he does, and how those pitchers respond, will be a big part of any Yankee comeback."

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 19, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Astros/Yankees Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"With so many non-hitters and so much good pitching on these rosters, we’re unlikely to see many long rallies. The Yankees led MLB by scoring 51% of their runs on homers; the Astros were fifth at 46%. Each team makes you hit the homer to beat them, too: The Yankees allowed 45% of their runs on homers, the Astros 40%. (MLB average was 39.8%.) The Yankees just played a five-game ALCS in which they got 28 hits and just 17 singles, a bit more than three a game. They are not going to have many rallies."

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 18, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Padres/Phillies Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"This is a baseball hipster series, a series for very online baseball fans, ones who might have been tired of the Dodgers and Braves and hungry for new blood. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are far more popular on Twitter than among normals. (I can say that, I’m part of the former group.) The specific builds of these teams speak to the success of going out and trying to win, certainly a conversation that happens more online than it does off."

Monday, October 17, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 17, 2022 -- "Five Teams Left"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"The Guardians are a fantastic run-prevention team because their pitchers have stuff that is incredibly hard to hit and when it does get hit, their fielders turn balls in play into outs at a high rate. Win or lose tonight, that -- and not their average-minus offense -- should be the story."

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 15, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Quick Turnaround"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"It took me a long time to come around to Snitker as a manager. The Braves won the World Series last year in part because he took the big mistake out of his bag. Yesterday, he found it again, and it cost him dearly."

 

Friday, October 14, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2022 -- "Division Series Catch-up"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"I’m as high on Alvarez, who hit a ridiculous Luis Castillo fastball -- 98, with run, off the outside corner -- for a two-run game-winning homer yesterday, as anyone. He’s still someone who is going to make an out 60% of the time, and 70% of the time you don’t walk him. If Servais is going to treat him like Kelly Leak, this series will be over quickly."

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2022 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The Braves didn’t lose because Rackley blew a call, even one that big. However, they were made more likely to lose because of it, and that’s what drives me crazy. Ranger Suarez didn’t do his job, missing inside with an important pitch. William Contreras did his job, taking that pitch for ball three. David Rackley inserted himself into that moment and changed the game. That’s not a human element, that’s just bad."

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: LAD/SDP Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"The fascinating thing about the Dodgers’ hit and run prevention is the names behind it. Kenley Jansen left as a free agent. Walker Buehler got hurt. Another famous starter got suspended for two years. Craig Kimbrel pitched his way off the roster. The Dodgers are carrying 13 pitchers and most of them are anonymous. Of those 13, 11 have ERAs of 3.10 or lower. Only Dustin May, rostered for his raw talent rather than his performance in six appearances, is above 4.00."

Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: NYY/CLE Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"One Big Question: Will the running game matter? The Guardians were second in the AL in steals and attempts. The Yankees allowed fewer steal attempts than all but a few teams allowed steals. They allowed the fewest steals, 40, in the league, and threw out the highest percentage of attempted basestealers, 36%. The Guardians probably need to squeeze a few runs from this battle to win the series."

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, October 11, 2022: "Playoffs 2022: HOU/SEA Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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Of the four teams advancing from the weekend, the Mariners start their Division Series in the best shape. They’ll run Logan Gilbert out to the mound against the Astros this afternoon, easily the best pitcher any of the wild-card teams have left in their pocket. Gilbert didn’t hold the high note from early in the season, when he had a 0.40 ERA in April, but by taking the ball every fifth day -- he was one of just 21 starters to make 32 starts -- he established himself as a true #2 starter.

The Mariners’ pitching depth will come into play here. They traded for Luis Castillo, who can pitch Game Two on full rest. They signed Robbie Ray, who probably comes back for Game Three. If there’s a Game Four, that should be rookie George Kirby, who walked 22 batters in 25 starts as a rookie. That’s enviable rotation depth, even for a playoff team, and there are a lot of opponents, including the one they just beat, against which the Mariners would have a big edge on the mound.

Unfortunately, they drew one of the other ones. The Astros, like the Braves, won’t have any bad pitchers starting playoff games. They won’t even have any bad pitchers on their playoff roster. It’s possible they’ve banned bad pitchers from Harris County. The Astros allowed just 518 runs this year, the fewest of any AL team in the DH era. But for the stupid runner (they allowed 21 extra-inning runs), they might have become the first team in 50 years to allow fewer than 500 runs. (Another team this year can make the same claim.) Astros pitchers struck out 26% of the batters they faced, second in baseball. When those batters weren’t striking out, they were hitting for the second-lowest BABIP (.268) and lowest HR/FB (9.3%) in baseball.

When you look at pitching statistics for the last few seasons, and particularly this year, you see staffs seeming to get control of the things that, not so long ago, we did not think were controllable. The Astros’ pitchers miss bats, and across the staff they seem to have unlocked the key to generating weak contact: low average exit velocities, few barrels, the lowest barrel rate allowed in the game. They do this, mind you, while throwing more fastballs than all but a handful of teams -- which is supposed to be what good pitchers don’t do any more.

There are good reasons to ignore regular-season results when projecting playoff matchups. Rosters change, teams improve or get worse, there’s a lot of randomness in any set of baseball games. With that said, man, what the Astros did to the Mariners this season gets your attention: a .219/.303/.343 line in 19 games, just 3.4 runs allowed per contest. The Mariners have one of the weakest offenses left in the field, and it’s hard to see how they repeat the weekend’s offensive explosion against the Astros’ staff. They’re not getting Jesse Winker back; even in a lost year Winker’s ability to work counts and get on base would have had value in this series.

The Astros remain a good offensive team, sixth in the majors in wRC+, but not at the level of their recent squads. They’ve lost George Springer and Carlos Correa to free agency, Michael Brantley to the frailty of the human form, and have not found adequate replacements for any of them. It’s really a four-man lineup at this point; the Astros will have just eight players on their playoff roster who were average or better at the plate this year. That includes Jeremy Peña, who hasn’t been anything like that since April; Trey Mancini, who had a 77 wRC+ with the Astros; and David Hensley, an infield prospect with 34 MLB PA.

(I’ve had a great email exchange about Peña with a subscriber, who passed along this story about his mechanical adjustments of late. Peña is hitting .274/.307/.512 since making the change. I’d still bat him down in the order, but Dusty Baker seems committed to him in the #2 hole. I’d watch to see how many innings he ends in front of Yordan Alvarez.)

The Astros’ lineup isn’t quite as unbalanced as the Jays’ was, but just four teams had more right-on-right PAs. Unless the team recalls J.J. Matijevic -- who didn’t hit at all in sporadic playing time -- they’ll have just two left-handed batters on the roster: Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. (Those three are the only left-handed batters on the team’s 40-man roster.)

The Mariners’ path through this series is on the mound. As we discussed in advance of the wild-card series, they have a deep well of good right-handed relievers behind that strong rotation. Those guys should be able to eat in this series. They are one of the few teams who can go inning-for-inning with the Astros’ pitchers. Seattle can score quickly, tenth in the majors in homers, ninth in isolated power. There’s a path where they allow nine runs in four games and steal this thing.

One Big Question: Will we see the third postseason no-hitter this year? Justin Verlander left the game with a no-hitter intact three times in his last six starts. The Dodgers (1114) and Astros (1121) allowed the second- and third-fewest hits of any team since 1968, and two of the bottom-15 totals of all time.

One Big Stat: The Astros used 22 pitchers this season. Just two of them, Pedro Baez and Ronel Blanco, had ERAs of 4.00 or higher. It’s the first time since the 1991 Dodgers any team can say that, and just the fourth time a team in a DH league has turned the trick. Now, neither Baez nor Blanco pitched even seven innings for the Astros. If we draw the line at 10 IP, the Astros stand alone as the only team to play a full season in a DH league with no bad pitchers.

Even if I have real doubts about the Astros’ lineup, and a lot of faith in the Mariners’ ability to keep these games close, I’m just not sure the Astros will allow runs this week. Astros in four.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2022: "Playoffs 2022: ATL/PHI Preview"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Like the other teams that have created some separation in MLB, the Astros and Dodgers, the Braves have absurd pitching depth. We’ll see how they fill the last spots on their playoff roster, but they have 11 pitchers who threw at least 25 innings for them with no more than a 3.78 FIP."

 

Monday, October 10, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 10, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Rest or Rust?"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"We have seen what happens when a team with three or four days’ rest plays a team with one day of rest: They win more than 70% of the time. If you have a bank-shot theory as to what happens after that, I am all ears, but I have a very hard time attributing it to rest."

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 9, 2022 -- "Wild Card Catch-up"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"After the last two days, in a season when it most definitely does matter, I can say with confidence that this playoff format is designed to break baseball fans’ brains."

Friday, October 7, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 7, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"In 2014, the Royals were last in the AL with 95 home runs. Then they hit four in three games against the Angels in the Division Series, all at critical times. They hit four more in a sweep of the ALCS. The team defined by its lack of power turned into the 1961 Yankees for a week and won a pennant."
 
 

Thursday, October 6, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 6, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Key Weaknesses"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Guardians: Since the league expanded to 30 teams in 1998, just five teams have made the playoffs while hitting fewer than the 127 homers the Guardians hit this year. Now, three of those won pennants and two won the World Series, mostly clustered in the mid-2010s low-power period. Since the Royals won the World Series in 2015, though, no team with fewer than 180 homers has won a playoff series. If the Guardians go down, it will be because their long-sequence style doesn’t work in the playoffs."

 

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, October 6, 2022 -- "Awards"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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American League MVP

1. Aaron Judge
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Jose Altuve
4. Andres Gimenez
5. Julio Rodriguez
6. Adley Rutschman
7. Mike Trout
8. Yordan Alvarez
9. Justin Verlander
10. Jose Ramirez
 
National League MVP

1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. Sandy Alcantara
3. Nolan Arenado
4. Manny Machado
5. Michael Harris II
6. J.T. Realmuto
7. Mookie Betts
8. Aaron Nola
9. Austin Riley
10. Dansby Swanson
 
AL Cy Young Award

1. Justin Verlander
2. Dylan Cease
3. Shohei Ohtani
4. Alek Manoah
5. Kevin Gausman
 
NL Cy Young Award

1. Sandy Alcantara
2. Aaron Nola
3. Max Fried
4. Carlos Rodon
5. Spencer Strider
 
AL Rookie of the Year

1. Julio Rodriguez
2. Adley Rutschman
3. Steven Kwan
 
NL Rookie of the Year

1. Michael Harris II
2. Spencer Strider
3. Brendan Donovan

 

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, August 5, 2020 -- "Shohei Ohtani"


The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 12, No. 44
August 5, 2020

After walking eight of the 16 batters he faced over two starts, and throwing a 42-pitch inning Sunday against the Astros, Shohei Ohtani is done pitching for the season. An MRI revealed a forearm strain that would shut him down for four to six weeks, and with just eight left in the season, bringing him back on the mound isn’t in the cards. As Joe Maddon told MLB.com, “In whatever kind of throwing program, it'll be very conservative. I don't have any projection on that other than he's not going to pitch this year.” 

Ohtani is expected to be available as the team’s designated hitter. Combined with the call-up of Jo Adell on Tuesday, this creates a logjam for playing time, locking in Albert Pujols at first base most days and forcing Justin Upton, at least at the moment, into a left-field platoon with Brian Goodwin. The Angels’ rotation takes a hit in that the projected nine starts from Ohtani would have helped them, but then again, they’re losing someone they haven’t really had in two years.

I’ve written a lot about Ohtani since 2017, when he was a star in NPB, not all of it well received. I want to walk back through some of that to see how we got to where we are today, and where Ohtani’s career might go from here. 

I did a two-parter on Ohtani in the fall of ’17, laying out my base case against the idea of him as the 21st-century Babe Ruth.

“There are two reasons to be skeptical. One is simple: baseball is very, very hard, and there’s good reason why two-way players have been left behind by evolution. It requires enormous amounts of work and preparation to be a major-league starting pitcher, and everything not part of the practice of becoming one can fall by the wayside. This is one reason why pitchers, who are often among the best hitters on their amateur teams, mostly lose the ability to hit as they come through the player-development process. They’re not selected for that skill. The same can be said for hitters; the job is hard, a daily grind, and you can’t expect an MLB-caliber hitter to take on the job of being an MLB-caliber hurler as well. This isn’t about the players; it’s about the jobs, and just how much it takes to be an MLB-caliber anything.

“Now, maybe Ohtani is that unicorn, but I don’t see it. The “two-way player” aspect of this story is a hook, but not something MLB teams can seriously consider beyond the way you might use Madison Bumgarner -- as a pinch-hitter, or letting him bat in a spot where you’d pinch-hit for a different pitcher. Ohtani may not be paid much Stateside, but he’s going to be a critical pitcher for whoever signs him, and his new team should want him focused on that job rather than trying to both hit and pitch, something no one has done successfully in the majors in almost 100 years. MLB teams draft players like Ohtani all the time, and they make them choose. The current exception, Brendan McKay, was the fourth pick in last year’s draft, and he will be on a single path by this time next year. Major League Baseball is just too hard for someone to be both a credible pitcher and a credible hitter at the same time. A team may agree to let Ohtani hit as part of the seduction, but it will not last.”

After the Angels signed Ohtani to a surprisingly small contract, I wrote about him in the context of his new team.

“Consider me a total skeptic on Ohtani’s offensive value on all counts. I’m not sure how he gets into the lineup for the Angels, I’m not sure what he hits against MLB pitching, and I’m not sure how the burdens of being a starting pitcher in MLB affect his offense. I will absolutely take the under on any projection of his playing time, and on most projections of his offensive performance so long as his primary job is starting pitcher. If Ohtani were coming over solely as a position player, I think I would have more confidence in projecting him as a hitter. As a pitcher and part-time hitter, there’s more offensive downside than upside.”

Lest you think this piece is an exercise in back-patting, let’s double down on that mixed bag with this, from April 9, 2018:

“I’ve been less convinced about whether he can be a good major-league hitter, given the greater velocity of MLB pitchers. I’ve been less convinced about whether he’ll hit enough to be an asset as a DH, whether the marginal offense is worth the roster machinations.” 

I missed on Ohtani as a hitter. His high strikeout rate in Japan had me concerned he would strike out too much to be productive against MLB pitching, especially as a DH. In 820 MLB PA, Ohtani has hit .281/.345/.528, with 23 steals in 30 attempts. His 133 wRC+ makes him a top-25 hitter in MLB among players with at least 700 PA in the last three seasons, wedged between Jose Altuve and Giancarlo Stanton. Dude can rake, and it’s that ability at the plate that made me more convinced he should not be a two-way player.

From June of ’18, after Ohtani landed on the injured list with a UCL tear:

“The more radical approach would be to employ Ohtani solely as a hitter, at least for a while, and then see if he can move back to the mound as needed late in the year and perhaps in the postseason. On a rate basis, Ohtani has been a better hitter (149 OPS+) than he has been a pitcher (131 ERA+). His playing-time upside is higher as a hitter as well; the Angels are never going to get full value from him as a starter on a seven-day cycle, whereas Ohtani can DH just about every day. If pitching is off the table, the Angels can even play Ohtani in the outfield, where he projects to be no worse than an average defender and probably a plus one. This would be an elegant solution to the Kole Calhoun (.145/.195/.179) problem, and if not that, a viable alternative to the team having to play both Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena.

“If Ohtani’s elbow is a lost cause and he needs surgery, so be it; but if the problem is pitching, the Angels can get just about as much value out of Ohtani as an everyday hitter, especially an everyday right fielder, as they would have from him in the hybrid role. It can’t be about the stunt casting any more, about the story. It has to just be about wins.”

It’s that last line that got some pushback, essentially arguing that some cost in value was worth paying to have a player as unique as Ohtani. I think that argument had merit in a world where Ohtani was maxing out his availability as both a pitcher and a hitter. We have never lived in that world. Ohtani was a low-volume starter -- nine starts over nine weeks at 5 1/2 innings a start -- and a half-time DH at the very peak of his “two-way player” status in the majors, a stretch that lasted two months. He has thrown a total of four innings since then.

I checked in on Ohtani a year later.

“It’s been just over a year now since Ohtani took his last regular turn in the rotation, a four-inning start in Kansas City abbreviated by a blister on his right middle finger. Ohtani would make a seemingly random start in September, going 2 1/3 innings against the Astros. So it’s reasonable to say that for the last year, Ohtani hasn’t been the two-way player of mythology but, rather, a one-way player. In that year, Ohtani has hit .282/.353/.556. Left alone to rake, he’s been one of the 15 best hitters in baseball, with a 146 wRC+. ...

“Mind you, a lot of that production has come with a torn or surgically repaired right ulnar collateral ligament. We’ve yet to see what Shohei Ohtani can do at full health.

“I understand the desire to see someone do that which hasn’t been done since Babe Ruth was hitting dingers and committing all seven deadly sins before lunch. Isn’t it clear, though, a year and a half into this, that Ohtani is a potential MVP candidate even if he never takes the mound at all, and that pushing the latter task onto his desk offers more risk than reward?”

Ohtani’s offense would fade a bit from that early-summer peak. He ended up hitting .286/.343/.505, going 12-for-15 stealing, and producing 2.5 wins, even as a DH. Still, it was a glimpse into what the 24-year-old could be if assigned just one job. 

We’ll fast-forward to the Angels’ offseason breakdown, from back in February.

“I have been low man on Shohei Ohtani for two years, and that doesn’t change now. MLB isn’t NPB, where the travel and scheduling burdens are far easier to manage, and where six-man rotations are the norm. MLB has generously flagged Ohtani as a “two-way player” despite him not pitching in 2019, but Ohtani has, being blunt, never been a two-way player in the U.S. He’s never batted and pitched in the same game, never played an inning in the field, and even in 2018, his batting and pitching were generally separated by days of rest even before his elbow blew out.

“I would love to see what Shohei Ohtani could do in one role. He might be Jacob deGrom. He might be Christian Yelich. The effort to have him be a two-way player is preventing him from being either.”

With Shohei Ohtani shut down as a pitcher, it means that from 2017 through 2010, over four seasons, Ohtani will have thrown 79 2/3 innings, total. He hasn’t played an inning in the field other than pitching since 2017, either. He’s lost much of one season to an elbow strain, then had Tommy John surgery, then lost almost all of an abbreviated season to a forearm strain. 

Shohei Ohtani isn’t a two-way player. He hasn’t been since 2016, no matter how much he wants to be or how much fans want him to be. The effort to become a two-way player is ruining a career that could be so much more than it has been so far. There’s a MLB superstar within Ohtani, whose incredible athleticism is wasted in a bat-only role, but he’ll only ever realize it if he picks one side of the ball and sticks with it.

I return to something I wrote in April of last year, something that holds true today.

“I’m pretty sure Shohei Ohtani is a five-win pitcher, and I can be convinced he’s a five-win outfielder. I just don’t know if we’re taking those players and making them into a four-win P/DH.”

It’s worse than that, of course: We’re taking those players and making them into just a DH. It’s time to admit that the two-way effort is over. Let Ohtani stop trying to be a unicorn and get on with being a superstar.

Newsletter Excerpt, October 5, 2022 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"While the Mets and their fans are naturally disappointed by the way the season has ended, this is one of the best teams in franchise history."

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 4, 2022 -- "Another Drought Ends"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"The Phillies didn’t wait as long as the Mariners did, but I’m certain it felt just as long to their fans. Now, they’ll get a puncher’s chance behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola to take out the Mets or Cardinals. They may be the sixth-best team in the league, but with their star power and that improved bullpen, they’re dangerous in a short series against everyone above them."

Monday, October 3, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 3, 2022 -- "Sweep"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"The Braves won their 100th game last night, and that doesn’t really tell the tale of how good they are right now. They were 22-24 through May 27, having had Ronald Acuña Jr. for just about a month and getting by with a number of poorly-equipped center fielders. In advance of a Saturday afternoon contest with the Marlins, they called up an outfielder with just two months’ experience above A ball, Michael Harris, and they’ve been damn near the best team in baseball since then."