Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 19, 2025 -- "Product Investment, and the Dodgers"

 

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The Dodgers have the best team in baseball, the best ownership, a top-five farm system, and now two titles in five years. They’re the favorite to repeat. Here’s the thing, though. If you advance them to the Division Series by acclamation and make them a 60/40 favorite in every playoff series, they’d have just a 22% chance to win the World Series. Make them a farcical 67/33 favorite in every series -- completely unrealistic in baseball -- and they’d still have just a 29% chance of winning it all. The Dodgers may be maxing out everything a team can do to win, and they still can’t squeeze the drama out of the season.
 
 

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 18, 2025 -- "That's What the Money Is For"

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The team comes first, within reason, and upgrading from the worst defensive third baseman in the game to an above-average one -- so the team can win more -- is a perfectly valid reason to move on from whatever promises were made. It is, in fact, what the team is supposed to do. We’ve heard for years about how good a manager Alex Cora is; this is what he gets paid to do, sell an unhappy player on a decision that is best for the team. Use a carrot, use a stick, but in the end, Cora has to put the best team on the field.
 
 

 

Monday, February 17, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 17, 2025 -- "Cole Ragans and the Royals"

 

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What matters most is that no matter where he plays, India leads off in front of Witt. Royals leadoff hitters -- mostly Garcia -- had a .270 OBP last year, worst in baseball by 22 points and eighth-worst in recorded history (min. 500 leadoff PA). Witt was sixth in baseball in plate appearances but 34th in PA with runners in scoring position and 48th in PA with runners on base. Adding India and his .352 career OBP was a surgical strike aimed at this problem. Even if Witt regresses from his ten-win season, having India atop the lineup will make the lineup work a lot better and add 30-40 real runs to the team’s output. 
 
 

Friday, February 14, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 14, 2025 -- "Spencer Horw...whoops...and the Pirates"

 

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The Pirates don’t need any of these pitchers to front a rotation, because they have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Paul Skenes, and a reasonable candidate for a #2 in Jared Jones. Last year, with those two making just 45 starts, the Pirates’ rotation was the best it’s been since 2017, with 11.4 FanGraphs WAR. This year’s rotation should be their best since they reached the playoffs in 2015. If you want to build a case for the Pirates as this year’s surprise team, it starts with Skenes, Jones, and Chandler making 70 starts with a 3.00 FIP, and the rotation as a whole being a top-five unit.
 
 

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, February 13, 2025 -- "Alex Bregman Signs"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Alex Bregman Signs
Vol. 16, No. 155
February 13, 2025

So I am still visiting friends out in the L.A. area, and last night I went out with one of them. I knew what the next Newsletter would be, and we’re in that part of the winter when there’s not much big news. It seemed like a good night to knock back a couple -- my limit is a couple, I have the tolerance of a 16-year-old gymnast -- play shuffleboard, and have some laughs. It turns out the laughs were at my expense, as I am quite out of practice at bar shuffleboard, a game I was once pretty good at. (Unpaid endorsement of the place we played, it is great.)

I was almost completely off my phone for four hours, and when I checked Slack, I saw that Nick Pivetta had signed. That didn’t move my needle, though I think Pivetta is exactly the kind of bulk #4 the Padres very much needed. I kept scrolling, because there sure seemed to be a lot of posts and...oh...oh, no.

Alex Bregman, the last major free agent on the market, signed a three-year deal with the Red Sox for a face value of $120 million. (Deferrals will knock the real number down a bit.) Bregman can opt out of the deal after each of the first two seasons. Bregman, 31 and coming off a third straight four-win season, is betting that he can repeat his recent performance and hit the market again without the draft-pick penalty attached. There are reports that Bregman turned down longer-term offers with lower AAVs to sign with the Red Sox, further indication that he sees this as a pillow contract.

From December:

I’ve considered Alex Bregman (Law #5) an OBP guy for a long time, and it’s an open question whether he still is. After seven straight seasons with at least a .350 mark, he dropped to .315 last year, his walk rate collapsing by almost half relative to 2023. Bregman walked 7% of the time last year after being over 11% for six straight years. He was a different hitter, posting his highest swing rate and chase rate since his rookie season. His swing rate against fastballs was the highest of his career and a big jump over 2023. His swing rate against first-pitch fastballs, the same. 

I put it all together and see a hitter who really doesn’t want to fall behind in the count, who may have some doubts about his ability to read and attack spin the deeper he gets. Against non-fastballs, Bregman slipped from a .329 expected wOBA in 2022 -- a good number -- to just a .272 mark last year. 

Bregman turns 31 as the season begins, and I see a lot of collapse risk in this profile. He’s still good defensively, and he has been durable, so the floor is pretty high for the short term. I think I’d rather push a higher salary over fewer years, though. Would 3/90 get it done? I don’t want to be committed to Bregman for too much longer. I want to reiterate something I wrote yesterday -- even good players are often closer to the end than we think they are. 

That ends up aging well, as Bregman’s contract will probably come in at 3/90 or so when the deferrals are calculated. The structure of the contract should keep the Red Sox under the payroll-tax threshold, if just barely, heading into the season.

I stand by what I said about Bregman’s projection. I think he’s a good contributor in 2025 with increasing collapse risk past that. The projection systems see him as a three- to four-win player, bolstered by a plus glove. Signing with the Red Sox gives him a chance to exploit the Green Monster, but it’s worth noting that Bregman’s pull rate and pulled flyball rate have been in decline for a while.

Spray Hitter? (Alex Bregman’s batted balls, 2021-2024)

           Pull      PullFB
2024      39.9%       12.0%
2023      42.6%       11.4%
2022      48.2%       14.6%
2021      52.2%       14.7%


Match that with the original notes about Bregman’s walk rate, aggressiveness, and struggles with breaking stuff, and it’s not hard to see potential decline. Still, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and there’s a strong likelihood that this is a one-year deal.

What the Red Sox get out of it depends in no small part on how they deploy Bregman and his new teammates. The Sox already had a very crowded infield thanks to the emergence of Kristian Campbell as one of the game’s very best prospects. Early speculation has Bregman taking over at second base, a position where he’s played 32 pro innings, none since 2018. This would be an enormous mistake for both Bregman and the Sox, as much of Bregman’s value in Boston will come from his defense, and at that, his being an improvement on the glove of Rafael Devers.

ImBregnable vs. Sieve-rs (selected defensive numbers, 2021-24)

DRS         2021   2022   2023   2024    Tot
Bregman       +2     -4     +5     +6     +9
Devers       -12     -6     -8     -9    -37


OAA         2021   2022   2023   2024    Tot
Bregman        0     +8     +2     +6    +16 
Devers       -13     -2     -8     -6    -29


Over the last four years, Rafael Devers is the worst regular third baseman in baseball with the glove, consistently below average and almost always bad. Bregman, in that time, is eighth in Outs Above Average among 37 qualifiers. To sign Bregman and then not use him at third base in favor of Devers would be an enormous mistake that eats much of the value of signing him.

There’s no certainty that Bregman takes to second base. The skills required of the two positions are disparate. Third base requires quick reactions, a strong arm, and the ability to come in on a ball to field squibs and bunts. Second base minimizes the value of an arm while asking for greater lateral range and turning double plays on the pivot. The latter task is a bit easier these days, as runners are no longer permitted to slide aggressively, but it’s still a real skill Bregman has almost no experience with six weeks from Opening Day.

Playing Bregman at second protects the ego of Devers, a great hitter and a player the Sox have signed through 2033. The cost is that it makes the team’s defense at least a win worse at third, and potentially worse at second, while introducing additional injury risk to Bregman. It blocks Campbell, buries Vaughn Grissom, and puts a new barrier in Marcelo Mayer’s way. It does all this while leaving Masataka Yoshida in the DH spot rather than letting Devers get on with his bat-first career. 

I understand and appreciate the soft factors, the ego management here. It’s not an easy conversation to have with Devers. From a baseball standpoint, though, the only way signing Bregman makes sense for the Sox is if in doing so, the team plays him at third base and moves Devers to DH -- while keeping Triston Casas locked in at first. 

This is normally where I’d do a roster breakdown, but I want to see how Alex Cora deploys his players when the Grapefruit League opens. The Red Sox have made the investment their fans were hoping to see, but they have to finish the job by playing Bregman where he does them the most good.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 12, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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You expect Justin Steele with an ERA in the mid 3.00s? He has 427 innings of 3.10 ERA pitching over the last three seasons, with FIP under 3.25 in all 3. He won't turn 30 until July. Why are we expecting a fairly serious downturn?

-- Mark W.

The xFIPs and xERAs have generally run higher than that, with low HR/FB rates that, in any given year, are expected to regress to a league mean. I don’t think that’s a skill for Steele or any pitcher, which is why I see him as a 3.40-3.50 instead of a 3.10. Every projection system has him 3.50-3.65. PECOTA says 3.65, too.

Both Steele’s four-seamer and slider have below-average velo, and he’s never really settled on a third pitch. I don’t think we’re that far apart on him, just that I’m expecting the low end of his range and you expect the high end.

Steele isn’t really a FIP beater. Just in the three full years, the two numbers are 3.10/3.14. He is an xFIP beater, which brings us to HR/FB rates and whether something is different at Wrigley. His HR/FB at home the last three years is 6.7%; on the road it’s 11.9%. Maybe that’s something the projection systems are seeing.

--J.

 
 
 

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 11, 2025 -- "Juan Soto and the Mets"

 

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The nice thing is that the Mets no longer have to win now. They not only have Soto as part of a fairly young core, they have a good farm system that’s ready to bolster the roster as soon as this season. Injuries have stalled the development of some top prospects -- Ronny Mauricio and Christian Scott, mainly -- yet there’s still depth and upside on the way. The early Guggenheim Dodgers spent a lot of money on the major-league roster in the mid-2010s while building an infrastructure that allowed them to eventually have a more homegrown team in the late 2010s. The Mets are on the cusp of making that same turn.

 
 
 

Monday, February 10, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 10, 2025 -- "Fun With Numbers: 192?"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Maybe it’s asking a bit much for a .249 hitter to drive in 192 runs. Pete Alonso, though, can drive himself in as few players can, and he’s going to approach the records for opportunities. Two seasons ago, he drove in 131 runs on just 40 homers, with just 210 RISP PAs and 355 with runners on. He drove in 91 teammates that year, second to Jose Ramirez with 97. If the single-season RBI record is out of reach in the modern low-OBP environment, Manny Ramirez’s post-integration record of 165 is a reasonable target for the Polar Bear.

I see all the ways it probably won’t happen, but I’d love to see Pete Alonso, in as good a spot as possible for RBIs, make a run at the record this year. 


Newsletter Excerpt, February 8, 2025 --- "Spinning Wheels, and the Angels"

 

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You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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For most teams, even bad ones, I can find an upside case. I can’t for the Angels. Ohtani is up the 5 freeway, Trout is 33, Rendon is semi-retired. They haven’t had a .500 season since 2015. There are a lot of players in their twenties, just none for whom you can foresee breakouts. Both Baseball America and Keith Law rank the Angels’ farm system as the worst in the game.

There’s no past, no present, and no future in Anaheim. They need a complete and total reset from the top of the franchise down.

 
 
 

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 6, 2025 -- "Pondering PECOTA"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Per PECOTA, the Yankees and Orioles are separated by a single game. The top four teams in the AL Central are separated by six games. The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are separated by three games. The Braves, Mets, and Phillies are separated by four games. The only clear break is in the NL wild-card race, where PECOTA sees a big fall-off from the top tier of Mets, Phillies, and Diamondbacks to the Padres, Cardinals, and Giants. 
 
 

 

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, February 4, 2025 -- "Jack Flaherty and the Tigers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Anyone who watched the Tigers’ late-season run knows that the team was pulling athletic twentysomethings out of the crowd and getting ten good innings from them. In the playoffs, Beau Brieske and Will Vest seemed to pass Jason Foley in the pecking order, though sussing out Hinch’s preferences on any day takes some work. Maeda was effective when used in shorter stints late in the year, and you have Brenan Hanifee, Ty Madden, and the aforementioned Montero as options. Picking up an inexpensive Tommy Kahnle gives Hinch one more option in a pen that might have seven plus relievers.

 

Monday, February 3, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, February 3, 2025 -- "Fay Vincent, 1938-2025"

 

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You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Fay Vincent Jr., the eighth commissioner of baseball, died Saturday at the age of 86. Vincent, who held his position in baseball for just three years from 1989 to 1992, is often referred to as “the last commissioner,” given his attempts to serve as a neutral arbiter in the game’s many internal disputes. In the three decades since Vincent was forced out, MLB’s two commissioners have served explicitly as representatives of the owners’ interests. 

Vincent is perhaps more accurately remembered as the accidental commissioner. His long friendship with the president of Yale, A. Bartlett Giamatti, was his primary qualification for the role of deputy commissioner under Giamatti. The academic, who first served as National League president, ascended to the commissionership in April 1989, only to die of a heart attack five months later. Vincent was quickly approved as his successor and almost immediately faced a crisis when the Loma Prieta earthquake interrupted the 1989 World Series. That moment, in fact, led Rob Manfred’s acknowledgement of Vincent’s death:

“Fay Vincent played a vital role in ensuring that the 1989 Bay Area World Series resumed responsibly following the earthquake prior to Game Three.”

It was after that moment that Vincent’s leadership began to grate on the 26 magnates. In 1990, with the CBA having expired at the end of 1989, the owners locked out the players from spring training. Vincent inserted himself into the negotiations, threatened to use his authority to open camps, and eventually brokered a deal that didn’t include the revenue sharing, pay for performance, and cap system the owners wanted. Vincent’s role in 1990 helped ensure that no independent commissioner would ever be involved in MLB labor disputes again.

Vincent’s term in office would bring him into constant conflict with varying owners. He suspended Yankees owner George Steinbrenner in 1990 after Steinbrenner paid Howie Spira, a gambler and hanger-on, to dig up dirt on Yankee outfielder Dave Winfield. With the NL planning to expand in 1993 and the AL teams desperate for a share of the expansion fees to help pay off the collusion settlement, Vincent stepped in to broker a solution in which the AL teams would get a slice of the money in exchange for making players available in the expansion draft. The solution pleased no one and increased the number of owners unhappy with Vincent’s leadership. Soon after, Vincent announced plans to realign the National League geographically, moving the Cardinals and Cubs to the West and the Reds and Braves to the East, decisions that only made sense to people with access to, well, maps. The Cubs sued Vincent to prevent this plan from going into effect, a suit that was rendered moot when Vincent resigned.

MLB owners no longer had the stomach for a commissioner who saw his role as promoting the best interests of baseball when those interests conflicted with the best interests of the owners. In September 1992, following a vote of no-confidence, Vincent resigned his office. Brewers owner Bud Selig, one of the architects of collusion just a few years prior, took over on an interim, and eventually permanent, basis. 

Vincent had his share of battles with uniformed personnel as well. He repeatedly backed Giamatti’s decision to place Pete Rose on the permanently ineligible list for gambling on baseball, a decision he’d been a part of as Giamatti’s deputy. He issued a lifetime suspension to reliever Steve Howe after Howe repeatedly failed tests for cocaine use. In investigating Howe, Vincent bullied and threatened Yankee manager Buck Showalter. Vincent was eventually railroaded by the owners, but he was also, in many ways, a bully who lacked his predecessor’s touch with people. No amount of personality, however, would have saved him. The baseball business was changing too much for the owners to imbue any position with much independent authority.

In retrospect, Vincent represents a breakpoint in baseball history. Commissioners have always worked for the owners, but for 70 years MLB held onto the fig leaf that commissioners stood above the game and represented more than just the interests of capital. When Vincent was cashiered by Selig, Jerry Reinsdorf, and Peter O’Malley, that fig leaf dropped. We have not had a commissioner who wasn’t a representative of the owners since then, and we never will. It’s healthier in some ways, but in others, we feel the lack of leadership in a sport crying out for it.

Vincent tried to be that leader, to follow in the footsteps of his friend Giamatti. The owners, however, no longer had an interest in the kind of leadership that centered anything but their revenues, their profits, and their dominance over the players. More than 30 years later, as Vincent passes, baseball remains rudderless.