Newsletter Excerpt, August 29, 2025 -- "Gotta Write"

 

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You can’t control the distribution of wins. All you can control is the quality of teams that make the playoffs. MLB has lowered that quality since 1969, and rapidly so since 1995. Some years that pays off in dramatic scrambles among 85-win teams, and in others, you get an 84% chance the playoff field is set before the end of August. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 26, 2025 -- "Misses"

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I thought the Marlins would be the worst team in baseball, ranking every one of their units 22nd or below. I saved particular scorn for their offense:

All this decent pitching is in support of an offense that might struggle in the Sun Belt Conference. Losing Jesus Sanchez, the team’s best hitter and a breakout pick of mine, isn’t helping. Sanchez could be back in a week or two from a strain in his left side. Squint and you can project Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers, acquired from the Orioles last summer, for good years. Maybe Xavier Edwards keeps some of his crazy .398 BABIP. The team is neither old nor young, with a lot of mid-twenties fliers like Griffin Conine and Matt Mervis hoping to finally get established. 

Instead, the Marlins are 19th in runs scored, 18th in wRC+. It’s not just All-Star Kyle Stowers, either. Five Marlins have at least 100 PA and a 100 wRC+, and that excludes August sensation Jakob Marsee, with a .329/.398/.671 line in his first taste of the majors. This is their best offense since 2017. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara’s miserable return to play has been offset by the comebacks of Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera, elevating the group into the game’s top 20. The defense has been much, much better than I expected, ranking fourth in Defensive Runs Saved, eighth in Outs Above Average, and is better at almost every spot, per OAA. 

 

 

 

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, August 25, 2025 -- "BWJ, MVP?"

 

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: BWJ, MVP?

Vol. 17, No. 74

August 25, 2025

The thing about inner-circle Hall of Famers is that their down years are pretty good. Mookie Betts is a below-average hitter for the first time in his career, headed for full-season lows in just about everything, and still might end up a four-win player -- something he’s been in every full season of his career. Juan Soto has never been worth less than five wins in a full year. If we look at some younger players on that track, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a career low of 2.6 bWAR. Julio Rodriguez’s floor, in four seasons, is four wins. 

Bobby Witt Jr. will never make a list like that. This is because as a rookie he was overmatched at shortstop and moved around the infield, so bad defensively that he ended up at 0.9 bWAR. I am pretty confident, though, that he meets the spirit of the idea. This season, getting absolutely no attention after finishing second in last year’s AL MVP voting, Witt has been one of the very best players in baseball. 

Winning WARs (sorted by Baseball Reference WAR)

                       bWAR    fWAR

Aaron Judge             6.8     7.3

Pete Crow-Armstrong     6.4     5.4

Cristopher Sanchez      6.2     4.7

Paul Skenes             6.1     5.4

Tarik Skubal            6.0     5.9

Bobby Witt Jr.          5.9     6.5

Cal Raleigh             5.7     7.3

Shohei Ohtani           5.6     7.1

Corey Seager            5.5     3.6

I don’t want to get into a WAR war today, so I’m running the two most popular variants. Aaron Judge has been the best player in baseball, and then there’s a group of others in the mix for second. Cal Raleigh’s value gap is the most controversial, as there’s a two-win difference between how the two systems see his defense. We have plenty of time in September to fight about framing stats and award voting. 

No, my point today is to say that the AL MVP discussion, framed as being between two men for a long time, should be considered a three-man race. Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t having the offensive season he did a year ago, ranking 29th in MLB in wRC+, 19th in batting runs. After posting career bests in everything in 2024, he’s fallen short of those marks in 2025, striking out a little more, walking a little less, not hitting the ball quite as well. His swing decisions, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER, are the same. He makes up ground everywhere else. Witt is a plus defender at shortstop, though getting more credit from FanGraphs than Reference. He’s one of the best baserunners in the game, both in terms of stealing bags (34 SB, 83% success rate) and taking extra bases on hits (56% of the time) without making baserunning outs (2). 

He’s not doing any of this playing out the string, either. Witt has been the best player on a Royals team that’s 20-14 in the second half, within three games of the Mariners for the third wild-card slot, within four games of the Red Sox for the chance to host playoff games. In the second half, in fact, Witt has been the third-best player in the AL behind Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, and tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. All games count the same, so I am not a fan of weighting the second half, or September, or any piece of the season more than others. That does become a point of issue in some MVP races, so let’s acknowledge that since the break, Witt, with 1.9 fWAR, has been worth more than Cal Raleigh (1.1) and Aaron Judge (0.3) combined. Witt has, in fact, outplayed both players since the start of June.

That’s interesting not because second-half WAR counts more, but because it shows how quickly a race can change. Witt has made up nearly two wins on Aaron Judge in five weeks (Judge was on the IL for some of that time), and almost one on Raleigh. Were he to do anything like that again over the next five weeks, which isn’t out of the question, he’d be right there with the two favorites statistically. 

No one has to tell Witt how quickly these conversations can change. Heading into last September, Witt was second to Judge in AL WAR, but close enough -- despite Judge’s incredible offensive numbers -- that the MVP race was in doubt. Witt had a decent month, hitting .278/.371/.444 and doing everything else he does so well, but he couldn’t keep pace with Judge. So by the end of the season, we had a consensus 1-2 in the AL MVP voting.

WAR, in any form, is an excellent sorting tool, but it’s not precise inside of a win. If one player has two or three more WAR than another, we can safely say he’s better. Once you’re talking about differences of less than one WAR, though, you want to be careful. Right now, in both bWAR and fWAR, Judge, Raleigh, and Witt are separated by less than one WAR with five weeks to play. Because of the order of events, with Judge getting off to that massive start and Raleigh setting minor home-run records, the conversation has been about those two. For three months now, though, it’s Bobby Witt Jr. who has been the best player in the AL. By value, he should be mentioned right along with the other two as a top AL MVP candidate. This is now a three-man race.

Newsletter Excerpt, August 24, 2025 -- "Weekend Update"

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Steinbrenner has spent money, bringing in Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in recent years, meeting Aaron Judge’s demands, letting Cashman pick up Cody Bellinger for merely a willingness to pay Cody Bellinger’s salary. He has a stopping point, though, and that stopping point becomes an issue when the Yankees don’t have a third baseman for three months, or their first baseman is a bargain-bin pickup in his decline phase, or an injury stack puts Carlos Carrasco into the rotation. 

The Yankees lost two starting pitchers in March and another in June, their DH missed three months, and they’re going to be in the playoffs. It’s time to stop comparing them to teams from a quarter-century ago, but if you’re going to do so, make the right comp: The biggest difference is in the owner’s box.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 22, 2025 -- "Weekend Plans"

 

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The Dodgers have been getting slowly healthier while the Padres have been getting a bit more injured. Down King and perhaps Merrill, and taking the bad side of every starter matchup, the Padres will be hard-pressed to take the early leads they need to make their model work. Still, any game that gets to the sixth inning tied or in their favor is one they’re likely to win. They just need two like that to head into the last five weeks of the season tied for first.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 20, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

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Yankees 13, Rays 3

                    AB  R  H  BI

Bellinger LF-RF-CF   5  4  4   3  2 HR

Part of a Yankee barrage of nine homers last night, Cody Bellinger’s two bombs gave him 24 on the season. He’s a top-40 hitter by wRC+, top-30 player by fWAR. He’s played in 114 of the Yankees’ 125 games and is third on the team in plate appearances, second in defensive innings played.

Cody Poteet has a 12.66 ERA in 10 2/3 innings split between the majors and Triple-A.

Every time I hear a Yankee fan screaming about Brian Cashman, I look at the roster. All I see are Cashman wins. Cody Bellinger is one of his biggest ones, a four-win player acquired for literally nothing but the willingness to pay him. It’s not as if Bellinger had a bad deal, either; the Yankees are on the hook for $25 million this year, less than the price of a three-win player, and $25 million next year if Bellinger doesn’t opt out.

Adding Cody Bellinger this winter was one of the best moves of the offseason and one of the best moves of Cashman’s career.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 19, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

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I’m a White Sox fan, but I live on the North Side among the Cub world and I can't help asking, why do the Cubs fall apart every July? Do their hitters not adjust when opponents find their weaknesses? Are they overrated to begin with? Is the organization's infrastructure deeply flawed? 

-- Paul W.

I reject the premise. The Cubs are 21-19 since July 1, fourth-best record in the NL in that time. They have not collapsed; a 91-win team (my projection for them) playing at an 84-win pace for six weeks isn’t notable at all. The Cubs simply happen to be competing against a team that’s 32-8 in that same timeframe. The wild success of the Brewers is creating the illusion of a Cubs collapse. 

Last year, the Cubs were 39-46 through June 30, 44-33 after. They went 12-11 in July, much better than they played in May and June. In 2023, the Cubs went 38-42 through June 30, 45-37 after, 15-11 in July. 

The Cubs don’t fall apart every July.

--J. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 17, 2025 -- "Meet the Brewers"

 

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It’s still not entirely clear how William Contreras (3.4 WAR) ended up in Milwaukee. The A’s were trading Sean Murphy to the Braves, and suddenly, Brewers GM Matt Arnold was just...there...inserting Esteury Ruiz into the deal and snagging Contreras, coming off a 136 OPS+ and an All-Star appearance. Since that deal, Contreras has been a top-50 player in baseball, and right there with Will Smith and Cal Raleigh among the most valuable catchers in the game. With the Brewers Contreras improved his framing, and on the whole he helps the team with his defense, to go with a .278/.365/.44 batting line in three seasons up north.

Contreras has been playing through a broken left middle finger all season, an injury that caused the Brewers to add Danny Jansen at the trade deadline. Contreras finished the first half at .245/.351/.347, just unable to drive the ball. The break seems to have done him good, though, as he’s hit .317/.391/.554 out of it. As Turang does, Contreras gives the Brewers a huge edge in providing top-of-the-lineup offense from an up-the-middle position.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 15, 2025 --- "Potpourri"

 

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It feels like these cycles -- hear about a pitcher, get excited about a pitcher, lose a pitcher to injury -- are accelerating. We got a few years of Sandy Alcantara, including a Cy Young campaign, before he missed a season. Cole Ragans went from the trade return for a rental to Cy Young favorite to months on the IL in less than two years. Teammate Kris Bubic came back from Tommy John surgery, had a 2.58 ERA for less than a year, and is now done with a rotator cuff strain. Jared Jones lasted 22 starts before losing a year, and now Burns leaves the stage after eight. Jacob Misiorowski, healthy for the moment, might make his eighth start tonight, even as the Brewers furrow their brows over how to pitch him less. 

It’s cynical to throw up your hands and just assume all of these guys will get hurt. Some of them, the lucky ones, won’t. However, it’s hard to keep getting excited about these young men, especially the best of them, the ones that throw the hardest, the ones who make our jaws drop, make us post clips, make us turn the channel, when they disappear so quickly. We used to at least measure our time with them in seasons. Now, we measure it in starts. 

 

 

 

Ranking All 30 Teams

 

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With the Third Third previews done, I took all that analysis and published a rank of all 30 teams from today onward 

 

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Seattle Mariners

3. Chicago Cubs

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Milwaukee Brewers

6. San Diego Padres

7. Boston Red Sox

8. New York Yankees

9. New York Mets

10. Toronto Blue Jays

11. Detroit Tigers

12. Texas Rangers

13. Houston Astros

14. Tampa Bay Rays

15. Cincinnati Reds

16. Atlanta Braves

17. St. Louis Cardinals

18. Cleveland Guardians

19. Baltimore Orioles

20. Kansas City Royals

21. Sacramento Athletics

22. Miami Marlins

23. San Francisco Giants

24. Arizona Diamondbacks

25. Minnesota Twins

26. Chicago White Sox

27. Los Angeles Angels

28. Pittsburgh Pirates

29. Washington Nationals

30. Colorado Rockies

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 12, 2025 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 5"

 

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7. New York Mets (63-55, third-order 63-55, second in NL East, 77.7% playoff odds)

Added: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto

Subtracted: Jose Butto, ten minor leaguers

I have spent much of the last 18 hours responding to frustrated Yankee fans, and I expect I’ll spend the next 18 hours responding to frustrated Mets fans. Here’s the thing, though...

          Predicted    Projected

Mets        88-74        86-76

Yankees     84-78        85-77

The New York baseball teams are hewing as close to preseason projections as any teams in MLB. Through almost three-quarters of the season, the wisdom of Dennis Green carries the day, at least in this space.

That’s not going to make anyone happy because the Mets and Yankees both made the mistake of winning their games in the wrong order. The Mets’ patchwork starting rotation was the best in baseball in March and April, leading the majors in ERA and FIP and helping the Mets achieve a 21-10 start that extended to 45-24 by the middle of June. At that point, the Mets had stayed on rotation almost all season, using five starters for 13 starts apiece, 65 of 69 games started by those five. Their 2.79 starters’ ERA led baseball, their 3.51 FIP was third. 

If we’d been looking for it, though, we might have seen the flaw. For as stable as they were and good as that run prevention was, Mets starters were just 13th in MLB in innings pitched. Since then, the team’s rotation has collapsed: 25th in ERA, 29th in FIP, and dead last in innings pitched. That, in turn, has wrecked the bullpen, which -- after being the second-best unit in baseball through June 12 -- has thrown the third-most innings of any pen since to tune of a 4.89 ERA (25th) and 4.31 FIP (20th). The deadline additions of Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto, designed to address the problem, have helped -- four runs in 15 1/3 innings as Mets -- but only so much. Mets relievers lost the two games over the weekend in Milwaukee that extended the team’s losing streak to seven.

The rightful focus on the collapse of the pitching staff, though, has perhaps served to protect another culprit, the Mets’ young hitters. The top six Mets batsmen are Juan Soto and five players 30 and older. The group of young hitters who were expected to fill out a strong lineup have, collectively, no-showed. Francisco Alvarez returned from a demotion to raise his wRC+ over par; no other homegrown young Met is at better than 100, league average. Brett Baty is hitting .228/.288/.408 (96 wRC+). Ronny Mauricio is at .234/.300/.409 (100 wRC+). Luisangel Acuña lost his roster spot for hitting .239/.295/.283 (68 wRC+). Most crushing is Newsletter favorite Mark Vientos, who has followed up his breakout 2024 by hitting .230/.277/.364 (81 wRC+).

The Mets were supposed to have an offense good enough to carry the pitching staff, but their young hitters have failed to advance, and the stars have been good, though a tick below established levels. Recent trends aside, the Mets’ offense is the disappointing unit relative to my preseason expectations. Based on the talent on hand, it should be better from here on in than a 106 wRC+.

That’s one reason, maybe the biggest, why I think the Mets will right the ship and end up as one of the NL’s wild-card teams. With seven games left against the Phillies, the NL East is still in play as well. As we’ve discussed, it’s a more shallow pool than it has been. This lineup, with the small offensive upgrade in center now that Cedric Mullins is here, can outscore the pitching staff. Again, this weekend aside, a back end of Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers is going to close down the 6-4 and 7-6 games well enough. My Mets panic meter is at 3/10. Join me over here. We’ve got cold drinks.

Why Watch? If I need to encourage you to watch the good team with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz, it’s possible you received this email in error.

Newsletter Excerpt, August 10, 2025 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 4"

 

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24. Detroit Tigers (67-51, third-order 64-54, first in AL Central, 96.6% playoff odds)

Added: Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack, Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald, Codi Heuer

Subtracted: Dietrich Enns, Matt Manning

This was Scott Harris’s first opportunity to be a buyer at the trade deadline, and it was a little more Mike Elias-flavored than Tigers fans would have hoped. The Tigers have lost 16 of 24 after starting 59-34, and they’re down two starting pitchers, Jackson Jobe and Reese Olson. Adding Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack serves to add innings, but the Tigers could have used a #2 behind Tarik Skubal. A.J. Hinch’s best option in October may once again be pitching chaos -- no starting option outside of Skubal has better than a 4.00 FIP this year.

Harris’s bullpen additions serve a similar function, as Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Codi Heuer, and the currently-injured Paul Sewald are all 3.50 FIP and worse types. Finnegan has picked up three saves for the Tigers in three outings, but his career-low FIP is 3.76 and he had crawl back to the Nationals last winter after being non-tendered. Hinch has more options now, it’s just not clear he has better ones. Rookie righty Troy Melton may end up being more important than this group of pickups.

If I’m going to defend Harris, it’s to point out that the market wasn’t deep in the kind of starting pitching he needed. The best starter to move at the deadline was a #3, Merrill Kelly, and even the top guys who weren’t traded, like Dylan Cease and Mitch Keller, aren’t that much better. The lineup needs are up the middle, never easy to fill in July. (Javier Baez since he was named an All-Star starter: .222/.222/.346, 26 strikeouts and tied with you in walks. One of the dumbest All-Star selections ever.)  

The Tigers’ lead in the AL Central is down to five games over the Guardians, which is also their cushion for a playoff spot. They have a .280 OBP in the second half, and they didn’t get better at the deadline. The math still likes them -- they have just a 3.3% chance to miss October -- but a year ago today the math said they were a 500-1 shot to make the playoffs. Maybe the math isn’t as much a comfort as a couple more good baseball players would be. 

The Tigers and Guardians play six games in ten days over the final two weeks of the season, and the Tigers have worked very hard to make those games important.

Why Watch? Well, either they’re going to make the playoffs, or they’re going to complete the back half of one of the craziest two-season runs we’ve ever seen. 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 8, 2025 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 3"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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16. Houston Astros (64-51, third-order 62-54, first in AL West, 84.9% playoff odds)

Added: Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez, Ramon Urias 

Subtracted: Ryan Gusto

So this is when I circle back to first principles. Whenever it’s reasonable to do so. I prefer to stick to my preseason projections, and I am going to do so here. I had the Astros finishing third behind the Rangers and Mariners in March, and that’s where I’ll leave them today.

This takes nothing away from my opinion of Joe Espada’s work. He has the Astros in first place giving 300 PA to Victor Caratini and Mauricio Dubon, a hundred to Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammell. Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, and Brandon Walter are 3-4-5 on the Astros in innings pitched. Isaac Paredes is done for the year, Yordan Alvarez has been a zero, and let’s not forget that the team lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason. Espada is my AL Manager of the Year.

With all that said, I don’t think the Astros, whose lead is down to 1 1/2 games in the division and 4 1/2 for any playoff spot, can hold on. The rosters of the Mariners and Rangers are just better, and not by a little bit. The Astros did buy at the deadline, but the players they added, Carlos Correa and Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, are just average. Paredes to Correa at third base is a big downgrade, even if it’s less of one than Paredes to Shea Whitcomb. I do give Jim Crane credit for taking on $70 million in salary over three years for Correa, but that willingness to spend money would have been more helpful in extending Tucker or re-signing Bregman than bringing back a banged-up two-win player.

I said on KZNE the other day the Astros had a grade-B deadline, largely because they didn’t give up anything they will miss, and Correa and Sanchez are better than what they had. I just think they needed an A deadline. They simply don’t have the prospects to do that, and it’s going to take a lot of draft/international signings for them to build the farm system back up. They needed one more big deal, either for a lefty bat or a starting pitcher, and they couldn’t pull it off.

The Astros have lost 16 of 25 games, as the bullpen that had been so critical to them begins to leak oil: 28th in fWAR in the second half. They have a tough week ahead, with a trip to Yankee Stadium and then a home series against the Red Sox. The schedule is a mixed bag after that. Two years ago, the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners had a lot of late series with each other. This time around, the Astros have just three games left with the Mariners, seven with the Rangers, and they spend their last week on the road at Sacramento and Anaheim. That penultimate week, the team’s final homestand against the Rangers and Mariners the week of September 15, could be their entire season.

Why Watch? This section gets a little silly the deeper we go. The Astros are in first place with one of the best 1-2 pitching combos in baseball, at least one future Hall of Famer in Jose Altuve, an electric saves guy in Josh Hader, and hopefully a healthy Alvarez in September.