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13. Minnesota Twins (53-60, third-order 54-59, fourth in AL Central, 1.5% playoff odds)
Added: Taj Bradley, Alan Roden, James Outman, new #4 prospect Eduardo Tait, new #6 prospect Mick Abel, new #7 prospect Kendry Rojas
Subtracted: Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Ty France, Chris Paddack, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Danny Coulombe, Brock Stewart, Louis Varland
On July 31, 2024, the Twins held the second AL wild-card slot, tied with the Royals and 2 1/2 games clear of the Red Sox. FanGraphs gave them an 81% chance to make the playoffs. The Twins closed the year 23-32 and missed the playoffs.
One year later, they committed to one of the biggest sell-offs we’ve seen at the deadline. The Twins swapped out ten of their 26 active players during deadline week, including eight on deadline day itself. At 47-49 going into the All-Star break, the Twins dropped two of three to the Rockies coming out of the break and seven of 11 through July 30, setting them on this path. Derek Falvey and company traded away the top five pitchers in the second-best bullpen in baseball. In the moment, it was a shocking sequence of events.
Almost a week later, I find myself thinking, “Eh, they’re relievers. You can always make more.”
That’s what they had done already. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland were all minor-league starters moved to the pen. Brock Stewart is a 33-year-old injury case with less than 200 career innings in the majors. Danny Coulombe was let go by the Orioles eight months ago. The 2025 Minnesota Twins bullpen was both excellent and a great example of how you build excellent bullpens: from spare parts.
For their troubles the Twins likely filled out their 2026 rotation. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel slide in behind Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober. Well, that’s if Zebby Matthews and David Festa don’t complicate things. The Twins may already have seven average to average-plus starters for next season. They have the internal depth to deal a starter for a hitter on a like-for-like basis, perhaps matching up with the Red Sox this winter. Remember, Ryan and Lopez were trade pickups, the Twins have a recent history of choosing well and getting maximum performance from their acquisitions.
The Correa trade was a surprise only in that it didn’t seem there would be a market for him. Correa has had two weak years in the last three and is guaranteed $92 million from 2026 through 2028. It may be that the Astros, short on infielders, with more cash than prospects, with the memory of three pennants with Correa, were the only team that would take the player and the contract. (The Twins are eating $33 million of the deal.) The Pohlad family, desperately trying to unload the Twins, was likely thrilled to see the future obligation come off the books.
If you accept that even a great bullpen wasn’t going to carry the Twins to glory this year, then you have to conclude that Falvey won the trade deadline. You can always rebuild a bullpen, but you can’t always find starting pitching. Heck, one of the Bradley/Abel/Matthews/Festa group may even be part of the 2026 bullpen. The Twins have Luke Keaschall back in the majors, with Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins coming behind him, and now the young catcher Eduardo Tait as well.
The Twins play in the AL Central, which has no great teams and no teams spending real money. Just eyeballing 2026 rosters, the Twins could be the favorite if a sale goes through and a new owner puts even a little cash into the product. Right now, the Twins owe $61 million to players next year, and they have some arb raises that could raise that number to $90 million or so. They could sign Kyle Tucker and still have a below-average payroll.
Even without that kind of big splash, though, the Twins are in good shape for ’26. They were a disappointment the last two seasons, for sure, but in the end they did the second-best thing you can do with a great bullpen: turn it into hitters and starting pitchers.
Why Watch? We’ll see whether the Twins shut down Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis as they play out the string, and you wonder how hard they’ll push Pablo Lopez to return. Still, this isn’t a bad team -- Keaschall just came off the IL, Matt Wallner has been on fire, the rotation is good and getting better. The Twins’ schedule is loaded with playoff contenders, including a final-week trip to Texas and Philly, so a lot of their games will matter.
