Newsletter Excerpt, January 11, 2019 -- "Jed Lowrie and the Mets"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

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"Even at that, I don’t dislike the signing. The price is incredibly cheap, valuing Lowrie as a one-win player off of a pair of four-win seasons. If he’s a bench bat who makes 60 starts, he’ll be worth the investment. I do think the Mets have created a high-maintenance roster for Mickey Callaway, and that could be a challenge for the second-year manager. Still, it’s hard to beat up the Mets, or any team, for trying to win in the short term. We need more of these signings, not fewer."

Newsletter Excerpt, January 10, 2019 -- "Gary C. and the Indians"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"I mention all of this because the Indians have, by and large, tried to do it right. I am pretty aggressive about going after rich owners who won’t invest in their teams, but the Indians’ payroll went from $87 million to $134 million over three seasons, all of which ended in division titles. Their payroll last year was in the middle of the MLB pack, a big number given the limitations on what they can earn locally. If the Cleveland market is going to roll its eyes at that kind of investment, and on-field success, by going to fewer games, I’m not sure what more you can ask of Larry Dolan."

Newsletter Excerpt, January 9, 2019 -- "For Entertainment Purposes Only, 2019 v.0.9"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Last night, Caesars Palace released season win-total lines for MLB. It’s the first post-PASPA season for these numbers, which are now also available in New Jersey and Mississippi, and will be in a dozen other states over the next few weeks."

My early recommendations:

Cubs over 89 wins
Tigers under 67 wins
Brewers over 83.5 wins

Newsletter Excerpt, January 7, 2019 -- "Projection"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Britton is an example of a player helped by the reliance on projection in valuing and signing free agents. Nathan Eovaldi is another. Eovaldi missed all of 2017 after his second Tommy John surgery and threw 111 innings in 2018 with an ERA of 3.81. Eovaldi’s new cutter, however, helped his fastball, which has always been impressive, and Eovaldi closed his season with some impressive relief work in October, of course, but his four-year, $68-million deal is maybe the first Statcast contract."

Newsletter Excerpt, January 3, 2019 -- "Bob Nutting and the Pirates"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"We focus on the Yankees and Cubs, the Phillies and Dodgers, but a team like the Pirates can not only sign Manny Machado without risking a loss, they are positioned to get more from the signing, based on the marginal wins he would add, than almost any other team. It’s teams like the Pirates refusing to take themselves seriously that is grating. The 2019 Marlins shouldn’t be spending money. The 2019 Royals shouldn’t be spending money. The 2019 Pirates should. That they’re just accepting 81 wins and fat checks should be more an embarrassment to MLB, and frankly to Bob Nutting, than it is."

Newsletter Excerpt, January 2, 2019 -- "A Potential Mariners' Edge?"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Yusei Kikuchi was ten years old when Ichiro Suzuki moved across the Pacific and won the AL MVP award in 2001, and Suzuki, the greatest Japanese MLB player ever, was a superstar as Kikuchi was growing into a star in his own right. How many young Japanese ballplayers grew up wearing Mariners gear, following Ichiro’s career Stateside, and by extension, growing an affinity for the Mariners? No one’s making a move like this to fulfill the dream of their tween self, but on the margins, will the Mariners be able to exploit an edge they earned by signing Ichiro 20 years ago?"