This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 13, No. 54
June 30, 2021
Babe Ruth was both one of the best starting pitchers of his time, when he pitched, and one of the best hitters of his time, when he hit. The period in which he was both, however, is smaller than you might realize.
Ruth did not play a game in the field other than as a pitcher in his first four seasons with the Red Sox. In those years, as a pitcher and occasional pinch-hitter, Ruth hit .299/.355/.474 with nine homers in 407 PA (151 OPS+). He was a star on the mound, though, leading the AL in shutouts and ERA in 1916, in complete games in 1917. For the two years combined, Ruth had a 1.88 ERA in 650 innings and more than 15 bWAR just as a pitcher.
Ruth opened 1918 as the Red Sox ace, beating the A’s on Opening Day at Fenway Park, and going on to complete his first five starts of the season. After he homered in a 5-4 loss to the Yankees on May 4, Ed Barrow put him into the Sox lineup two days later at first base. Ruth homered again, and then again the next day as the Sox first baseman. He doubled on the third day and then, taking his scheduled turn on the mound, hit three doubles and a triple. Ruth would make just 13 starts as a pitcher over the season’s final four months, contrasted with 67 at first base, left field, and center field.
In 1919, Ruth’s job description had changed. He was the regular left fielder for the Sox and an occasional pitcher, to the considerable detriment of his pitching. Ruth didn’t make his first start on the mound until the team’s eighth game, and he was taking regular turns in May and June. By the end of July, though, Ruth’s time as a regular pitcher was over.
From 1914 through April 1918, Babe Ruth was a pitcher. From August 1919 through the end of his career, Ruth was an outfielder. For a little more than a year, about a season and a half in 1918 and 1919, Babe Ruth was everything, and it was glorious. He hit .303/.418/.578 in an AL that for the two years hit .262/.328/.340, throwing in eight steals for fun. As a pitcher the dual role wore on him a bit; he had a 2.18 ERA in 15 outings after that first game at first base in 1918, then a 3.60 mark in 14 games in 1919.
It’s fairly clear, in his numbers, why Ruth picked a lane by the end of 1919. In those two seasons, he hit .250 with just one home run in the games in which he also pitched, while destroying the league the rest of the time. After July 1919, Ruth pitched just eight times over the final 14-plus seasons of his career.
Within that stretch of about eight baseball months, though, it’s hard to isolate one in which he did everything. Ruth destroyed AL pitching in May, June, and July of 1918, but was used sparingly as a pitcher, making just seven starts in the three months. The Red Sox leaned on him heavily as a pitcher down the stretch of a war-shortened schedule, winning the AL pennant in part thanks to Ruth’s 1.73 ERA in eight starts -- including seven complete games -- in August. That was paired with his worst month at the plate, though, a .282/.423/.359 line with no homers.
Peak Babe Ruth, the moment in which he was both a great pitcher and a great hitter, was probably June of 1919. Ruth hit .385/.500/.667 with four homers, making five starts as a pitcher and 20 in the field. In those five pitching starts he had a 2.51 ERA in 43 innings, with four complete games. On June 20, Ruth started on the mound and went the distance in a 3-1 Red Sox win. Ruth’s sixth-inning triple tied the game, and he scored the go-ahead run one batter later.
That right there, that Kelly Leak performance on the solstice 102 years ago, was probably the peak of Ruth’s two-way dominance, almost singlehandedly winning a game during the best combined hitting and pitching month he would ever have.
That brings us to Shohei Ohtani. In June 2021, with a day to go, Ohtani has been the best hitter in baseball: .313/.427/.900 in 96 PA with 13 homers. He leads all hitters with a .529 wOBA and a 242 wRC+ this month. Also in June, Ohtani, starting tonight at Yankee Stadium, has made four starts, throwing 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, a 32/5 K/BB and a 34% strikeout rate. He’s thrown six innings in three of the four starts, all three quality starts. Like Ruth 102 summers ago, Ohtani doesn’t rate as highly relative to his pitching peers -- 36th in fWAR for the month, basically tied with Josh Hader. The complete package, however, is overwhelming.
For the first time since he signed with the Angels, and really for the first time since 2016, when he was still with the Nippon Ham Fighters, we’re seeing the myth of Shohei Ohtani made real. He’s been the best hitter in baseball, and one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, over the last month. No one has done that for more than a day or so at a time since Ruth.
As recently as two months ago, maybe even one month ago, it was hard to foresee this. In his first three seasons Stateside, Ohtani had been handled with kid gloves by the Angels, blown out his elbow, and was awful in two starts in 2020 when he was trying to come back from Tommy John surgery.
In April of this year, Ohtani walked or hit nearly one of every four batters he faced, and even through the end of May, his command remained a problem. In seven starts, Ohtani had averaged just a bit over five innings pitched, with a 17% walk rate. He was as hard to hit as any pitcher ever -- a .156 batting average allowed -- but his inability to command his stuff, to throw it for strikes, leaked all over his performance. He had to work with runners on base more, he had to throw more pitches, he couldn’t provide the innings the Angels needed. There were, however, some good signs. From June 1:
“So it’s against this backdrop that I find Ohtani’s recent work very interesting. On May 11 in Houston, Ohtani walked just one of the 26 batters he faced over seven innings. It was his second-best career start, his best since his second MLB start back in Oakland in April of 2018. Ohtani threw 62 of 88 pitches for strikes using his fastball and splitter 83% of the time. They’re the two pitches he commands best; Ohtani gets in trouble when he starts spraying his slider and curve around.
“Ohtani’s next start at Anaheim was that weird one where he was down six ticks of velocity, and that seems to have confused Statcast. If we combine the data for his four-seamer, cutter, and slider, he threw them more than 90% of the time against the Indians that evening. Then in his last outing against the A’s, Ohtani used his four-seamer nearly two-thirds of the time, throwing just a couple of sliders. There were still control problems, with four walks and a hit batter.
“The version of Ohtani I like best is the one who starts in right field 155 times. The second best, though, is the one who sticks to his best two pitches, including one of the nastiest splitters in the game, and leaves the slider as a waste pitch in 0-2 counts or an occasional back-foot surprise for left-handed batters. That Ohtani throws enough strikes to work deeper into games, to get strikeouts, and to keep from starting rallies by himself with walks. That’s the one who can live up to the hype, rather than being a five-inning starter with a league-leading walk rate. I’ll be locked in on his next start, presumably this weekend in Anaheim against the Mariners.”
In that start, Ohtani walked no one for the first time in his U.S. career, kicking off his best month of pitching in at least five years. As much as I want it to be because of a change in his pitch mix, that’s not the case: Ohtani is using his slider and splitter this month in equal proportions, and continues to throw about ten cutters a game. Ohtani’s splitter remains one of the most devastating pitches in modern baseball, and maybe ever. Hitters miss half their swings against it, hit .086 off it, occasionally weep in anticipation of it.
No, Ohtani simply threw more strikes. Sixty-three percent strikes, in fact, up from 58% in the season’s first two months. He’s throwing strike one more often -- three of his top four games in this regard have come in June -- and that’s setting up his splitter for strikeouts in good counts. How important is strike one to Shohei Ohtani?
The Key (outcomes based on Ohtani’s first pitch)
PA AVG OBP SLG K BB
After 1-0 111 .241 .423 .494 29 25
After 0-1 110 .109 .165 .139 53 6
In Play 27 .348 .385 .435
Sometimes, hitters put Ohtani’s first pitch in play, with below average results. (Overall, the league hits .341/.352/.575 on the first pitch.) The advantage he gets when starting ahead 0-1 is absolutely overwhelming. A 9-1 K/BB! When he goes outside the zone on the first pitch, he turns hitters into Paul Goldschmidt, more or less. When he gets ahead, he turns them into pitchers. Throw strikes, win prizes.
Ohtani’s bat hasn’t been in question for a long time, though his monster June has impressed even his most enthusiastic supporters. My ongoing skepticism of the two-way role was based in part on a belief in his speed and defense largely going untapped in a DH/P role, and in part on doubt that he could throw enough strikes to be a viable starter in the majors. I still yearn to see Ohtani as a right fielder or even a center fielder, and that may never change. For the very first time since he came over, though, his pitching has warranted the usage pattern, has justified the hype.
For one incredible month, Shohei Ohtani has been right there with the peaks of Barry Bonds, of Pedro Martinez, of Alex Rodriguez as the best I have ever seen. For one incredible month, Ohtani has been what was long hoped for: the Japanese Babe Ruth.
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