Excerpt: "Sacrifice Bunts in the Time of No Singles"

"One-run strategies like the straight sacrifice and the steal are built around the idea that second base and third base are scoring position and first base is not. In our modern minimum-single environment, that premise no longer holds. Among successful hits, singles are still more likely than extra-base hits, but about twice as likely, as opposed to three times as likely for much of baseball history and four times as likely when these strategies were invented. Home runs and extra-base hits make up such a large percentage of safe hits that it's a waste to burn an out to move a runner up anticipating a single."

Excerpt: "Third Third Previews, Part III"

"Oakland A's (13): It was pretty easy to figure out why the A's were winning last year: they hit a ton of homers. This year's team doesn't have that signature, and most of the guys who drove that team to a division title aren't repeating their success. Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes haven't hit, while Brandon Moss and Seth Smith have been just OK. The pitching isn't as good as it was a year ago, but the A's staff has done a good job of avoiding walks -- tops in the AL -- and letting the best defense in baseball go to work. It looks a bit like the post-Moneyball A's teams that got away from OBP and emphasized defense.The A's outfield defense is excellent; despite the highest flyball rate in the AL, they've allowed the second fewest doubles-plus-triples (179, bested only by the Royals). Have they been a bit lucky? Neither Jed Lowrie nor Coco Crisp has been hurt this year, and they've used just six starters, with no one missing a start other than, if you can believe it, Brett Anderson. We've seen this again and again: a stable rotation has value even if it's not great, simply by keeping a team from digging into its seventh, eighth and deeper starters. I'd have said the Rangers would catch the A's, but with Nelson Cruz out for the season it's a different story. This will be a good race."

Excerpt: "Third Third Previews, Part I"

"Chicago Cubs (24): Contrast the Mets with the Cubs, who flipped Scott Hairston and Scott Feldman for whatever they could get, and gouged a good price for Matt Garza from a market that gave them an upper hand. They reportedly even dangled their #1 starter, Jeff Samardzija, which reflects a recognition that his being a good pitcher in 2013 may mean more to the 2015 Cubs in trade than in anything else. The Cubs are the first team in their market and the Mets the second, but the Cubs aren't playing in a new park and don't own their own RSN; despite this, I'd take their future over that of the Mets, and it's not all that close. I'm certain that when the Cubs are ready to contend, Tom Ricketts will sign off on the big-ticket items they'll need to get over the top. I have no reason to believe the Wilpons will do the same.

"Even post-deadline, the Cubs can be competitive behind Samardzija, Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson, who's pitched better than his ERA. The young players who were supposed to make the Cubs better haven't really done so this year, as Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Wellington Castillo have all been various shades of disappointing. How those three play these next two months is maybe the biggest story around this team.

"There's a very real chance that Theo Epstein is going to, over a period of 20 years, be the GM of a World-Series-winning Red Sox team and the President of a World Series-winning Cubs team. Once you do that, don't you have to run for president? At least, you'd have to take a shot at fixing the Cleveland Browns, no?"

Excerpt: "The Big Lie"

"There is no difference in what happens when a bat meets a baseball in a post-steroid-testing world than there was for most of the 'steroid era'. 1995-98 and 2008-11 are indistinguishable from each other in terms of home runs on contact and slugging on contact and isolated power on contact. There's no break in the record between 2003 and 2004, when testing with penalties began. There's no break in the record between 2005 and 2006, when penalties were ramped up. (In fact, in both seasons when the Joint Drug Agreement changed, power on contact rose.) Last season, 2012, had the highest rate of home runs on contact since 2006, and the highest slugging on contact since 2009. The big lie of steroids -- that they caused players to hit for more power in a way that distorted the statistical record -- is put to rest by these numbers."

Excerpt: "A Sad Day"

"Saying you want a drug-free game is an abstraction, buying in to an image of sports, of baseball, that has simply never reflected reality. In the same way that there was no such thing as loyalty before free agency, there's no such thing as clean before testing. If you could turn the Bud Squad loose in 1965 or 1982 or 1993, you'd find what reasonable people know to be true: many hypercompetitive athletes will do anything to be the best, ethics and laws be damned. With testing, with witch hunts, with 800-word screeds, we're trying to hold the present to the standards of the past -- standards that never, ever existed except in our sepia-toned fondest wishes."

Excerpt: "Third Third Preview, Part II"

"Kansas City Royals (17): I never get to talk about the Royals…. They've won 12 of 13 and 14 of 17 since the All-Star break, which makes Dayton Moore -- who said they could win 15 of 20 at any time -- prescient. Credit where due. It's not just the schedule; they went 5-2 on a homestand against the Tigers and Orioles, and going 9-1 even against a weak slate since then exceeds expectations. The decision to release Jeff Francoeur is mitigated by their burial of Johnny Giavotella -- their only real second-base option -- and continued use of Wade Davis as a starter. Their best hitter is a catcher batting .174 and they still don't do anything well on offense but steal bases. Going 14-3 gets them to -- or close to -- what will be a high point this season, but they're not going to catch the Tigers and even at this high point, they're the eighth-best team in a 15-team league.

"Call me in 12 days. Once the Twins leave town, the Red Sox come in, followed by the Marlins. Then the Royals go to Detroit for five games in four days. If the Royals have closed ground on the Tigers when they leave Detroit, if they're not still chasing three teams better than them in the wild-card race, then we can take all of this seriously.

"I suppose, after it all falls apart, the goalposts will be moved again, and staying sort of relevant in August and early September, finishing above .500, will be deemed a success. We'll hear about the challenges of a small market and the unfairness of it all, probably on a radio show while the Rays are preparing for a Division Series game, probably while Wil Myers takes batting practice, probably while votes are counted for Rookie of the Year."