Newsletter Excerpt, March 12, 2019 -- "Stasis and the Cubs"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

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Now, Tom Ricketts’s claims that the Cubs have no money are nonsense. The Cubs printed money when they were terrible, for crying out loud. It’s fair, though, to say that the two top-tier free agents on the market were awkward fits for a team set in the infield, and with both young players it likes and a very difficult contract in the outfield. The Cubs’ luxury-tax payroll also shoots up this year, as raises for Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Hendricks kick in. Re-signing Cole Hamels helped push the Cubs, per Cot’s, nearly $20 million over the tax threshold, and there’s a strong chance the Cubs will live above that number for the next few seasons. Both 'the Cubs have plenty of money' and 'the penalties for going over the tax threshold are strong disincentives to do that' can be true."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 11, 2019 -- "Player Development and the Astros"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"It has got to be nice to be able to get 33 starts from Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh in one year, turn them into medium-leverage relievers the next, and then yank them back to be starters the third year. The Astros have more pitching depth than they know what to do with. They’ll tap into it this year, what with Lance McCullers out for the season and Josh James possibly starting the year in the pen after suffering a quad injury a couple of weeks ago."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 7, 2019 -- "Luis Severino and the Yankees"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"The Yankees can be profligate on free-agent relievers because they’ve developed a core of inexpensive, highly-productive players. In 2018, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, and Severino combined for 16.6 bWAR and were paid $3 million in total. That group, even with Severino’s new contract, won’t make $7 million combined in 2019. We can talk all we want about payroll restrictions and revenue sharing and all of the other mechanisms in place to restrain competition, but the single biggest factor in on-field success is player development, in getting $100 million in value for 3% of the cost."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 6, 2019 -- "Adam Jones"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"In all, I found nine examples in the last six years of a player who was a terrible full-time center fielder in one season, and a corner outfielder in the next. Most, though not all, of these were older players who had been good center fielders but were asked to play there a bit too long. As a group, these players were worth -1.4 dWAR in their last season in center. After moving, they were worth -0.3 dWAR. Simply getting out of center field was worth a full win. Most of these players still had negative dWARs (the exceptions were the younger players in the pool, like Adam Eaton, Marcell Ozuna, and Cameron Maybin), but they gained value just by not being asked to do what they could no longer do."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 5, 2019 -- "Not Bryce Harper and the Nationals"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"The Nationals have sacrificed some of their ceiling, watching a potential 10-win player move to their rivals 150 miles up the eastern seaboard. With all of the players they added, though, they’ve also raised their floor. With the Braves and Mets already seeing their 2019 dreams challenged by injuries, the Nationals are right there with the Phillies, and maybe a little ahead, as the teams to beat in this division."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 4, 2019 -- "Losing Salvy"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"This has been affecting fantasy leagues for some time. No game takes framing into account, so there’s a massive disconnect now between what teams value and what fantasy players value. This is the best case for one-catcher leagues, although I still prefer the challenge of two. A player like Mathis or Max Stassi or Roberto Perez is a fantasy hole, while being important to a major-league team. There’s simply no way to bridge that gap right now, so when a Salvador Perez hits the injured list, especially in an -only league, especially in the AL, fantasy and real baseball collide in an ugly way."