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So what do you do here? Alcantara has seen his two-seamer get rapped for a pair of singles. He’s no doubt seen the numbers that show Dingler has had most of his MLB success against two-seamers and change-ups. On the other hand, Alcantara’s putaway pitch this year has been that changeup, and Dingler just barely nicked it on 0-2.
For all of the advances we’ve made in analyzing baseball, in figuring out the most effective way to get a strike, retire a batter, hang a zero, throw six strong innings, the biggest moments will often come down to the same choice pitchers might have made in 1976: my strength or his weakness? Make that choice, and then it just comes down to, as clichéd as this is now, executing a pitch.
Alcantara went with his change-up, but it was poorly located, up and over the inside corner. Dingler got his hands in, caught the ball out in front and hit it 404 feet for three runs. He broke the game open and broke, 20 minutes in, my plans of writing up a pitcher’s duel.
