This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95
using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)
--
Rockies 13, Reds 2
CS: De La Cruz (3, second base)
The Reds got worked by Tomoyuki Sugano last night. Sugano is one of a number of very hittable pitchers off to good starts this year, as we continue to play with a Braniff ball -- it doesn’t fly anymore -- and outfielders positioned deeper than ever.
The Redlegs were down 5-0 in the sixth when they scratched together a rally. Matt McLain singled, Elly De La Cruz walked with the Reds down 5-0. This is Great American Small Park and you’re facing the Rockies, so the game is far from over even down 5-0. Sal Stewart flied to right, and McLain went to third. Warren Schaefer lifted Sugano for lefty Brennan Bernardino with the Reds down 5-0. With runners at the corners and the Reds down 5-0, De La Cruz was thrown out trying to steal second.
I probably don’t need to explain this one with run expectancy, but if you’re curious, the gain with a stolen base in that spot is a tenth of a run. The loss with a caught stealing is a full run. With the Reds down 5-0, De La Cruz needs to be safe...hang on...mmm-hmm...carry the one...287% of the time to make the risk worth it. It was as bad a baseball play as you’ll see. Nathaniel Lowe flied out, the Rockies scored three times in the seventh, and Jose Trevino ended up pitching the ninth.
