Saturday, August 3, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, August 3, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 2"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The number in front of every team’s name is their preseason ranking in this space, which is also the order in which the Third Third capsules run.

Record and rank are through Friday, August 2. 

 
15. Boston Red Sox (58-50, .537, tenth in MLB)

The Red Sox added Danny Jansen, who turned out to be one of the best position players to switch teams at the deadline. Jansen bumped Reese McGuire off the roster to give the Sox one of the best catching situations, with Connor Wong, in the majors. 

Avi P. checks in...

One more comment on the Danny Jansen trade. Connor Wong can play second base, which has been a real problem area for the Red Sox.

He can, in the sense that he has, but he’s played 20 innings there in four years, plus a couple of games at Worcester. I don’t think he's an option outside of some weird intra-game maneuvering, which is how he’s gotten all his run there. I don’t think I’d ever start him there over David Hamilton or Romy Gonzalez. Jamie Westbrook has ejected himself from the conversation, as expected, and I know nothing about Nick Sogard. 

The Sox also added two relievers in Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, and starter James Paxton, all for prospects that Baseball America had outside the game’s top 500 and outside the top 30 dealt at the deadline. With their starting rotation deteriorating, Alex Cora leaned on his pen, which collapsed to a 4.85 ERA and 4.40 FIP in June and July. The reinforcements aren’t great, but they will help, and Paxton is intriguing in a relief role.

The Sox, of course, were on the other side of that prospect challenge trade with the Pirates. Their infield, 2024 second-base situation aside, is beginning to get crowded. Ceddanne Rafaela and David Hamilton will soon be joined by Marcelo Mayer, so Nick Yorke was already being moved around the diamond a bit. Priester had failed to launch for the Pirates, with a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 innings, including 14 starts. Without much of a two-seam fastball, but a curve that misses bats and a changeup that has performed well in limited use, Priester is a candidate for the Red Sox “just throw your best pitches” makeover. He could be the next Nick Pivetta, a deadline pickup who ends up throwing 500 average innings for no money.

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: The Red Sox are 26th in Statcast’s defensive measurement, Outs Above Average, the lowest of any team that can be considered a contender. It’s the infield -- they’re last in runs prevented (-20) and Outs Above Average (-26). RafaelaRafael DeversEnmanuel Valdez, and Pablo Reyes are all among the 40 worst infielders in baseball by OAA.

Who Plays Where Now? Jansen pushed McGuire out to the parking lot. The bigger surprise was Greg Weissert losing his roster spot to all the imported relievers after becoming a high-leverage guy for much of the summer. Weissert, though, had a 5.96 ERA since the start of June. I expect him to be back in September, maybe sooner.

 
 
 

 

Friday, August 2, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, August 2, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 1"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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26. Los Angeles Angels (47-62, .431, 26th in MLB)

There are some similarities between the Angels and Rockies, with the teams having a similar crop of low-ceiling young players, mediocre pitching, and a terrible free-agent contract for a veteran third baseman on the books. They also share oddly resilient attendance figures in the face of extended poor play. Shohei Ohtani propped up recent Angels crowds, but even without him, and without much else to watch, the Angels are averaging 30,000 tickets sold a game. 

Perry Minasian made one of the stronger deadline trades, flipping 25 innings of Carlos Estevez to the Phillies for one of the best prospects dealt last week, righty George Klassen, and a second pitching prospect in Italian lefty Samuel Aldegheri. Klassen is the kind of power arm the Angels have not been able to develop well. The 2023 draftee had a ton of helium this summer, though in fairness, he was a college pitcher dropped into A ball who put up great numbers against younger competition. Minasian also sent Luis Garcia to the Red Sox for four prospects, none of whom have a high profile. It’s important to consider the “something for nothing” factor; the innings Estevez and Garcia would have thrown for the Angels had no value to them, so trading them for even a collection of lottery tickets -- and Estevez returned more than that -- makes sense.

The big Angels story, though, wasn’t the deadline deals. Mike Trout announced yesterday that he would miss the remainder of the season with a second torn meniscus in his right knee. Trout wasn’t going to lead the Angels back to the playoffs, but he’d have made them both better and more watchable. This will be the third time in four years that Trout doesn’t play in even 100 games (fourth in five counting 2020), and the ninth in a row that he doesn’t play in 150.

Trout, who missed a total of 16 games from 2013 through 2016, missed nearly 500 games over the next eight seasons and played in just 59% of the Angels’ games from 2017 through 2024. His chances to reach major milestones like records for runs or WAR are all gone, and he may be hard-pressed to collect 2500 hits or 500 home runs. His place in baseball history is secure as one of the best ever, but the shape of his career is now warped, fractured. It’s arguable whether he’s even the best player of his era, given the accomplishments of Shohei Ohtani and the ongoing excellence of Mookie Betts.

Trout will return next year at 33, and if the Angels are going to get what they need from him, they have to make the long overdue decision to get him not just out of center field, but off the field entirely. This is the shift Ken Griffey Jr. never accepted, and continuing to play center cost him time and value. Trout, who has resisted a move to left field in the past, has to have the decision taken out of his hands now. His bat is too important to the Angels, even in light decline. 

Mildly Interesting Statistical NuggetAnthony Rendon is back on the IL with, I don’t know, bad dreams or something. He cannot play in 100 games this year, which will make five straight seasons with the Angels in which he didn’t reach that threshold. If he doesn’t play in 27 more games, it will be the fifth straight season in which he doesn’t even reach 60 games played. (Yes, I’m cheating and including 2020.) For a franchise with an absolutely epic track record of disastrous free-agent signings, Rendon may end up the worst one of all.

Who Plays Where Now? Boy, there sure are a lot of bad teams that kept their best players. The Angels opened the closer role by trading Estevez, which seemed like it created a path for rookie Ben Joyce. Not so fast. The first opportunity went to Garcia, and the next two to Hunter Strickland. I think Don Aase is next up.

 
 
 

 

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, July 31, 2024 -- "Incoherence"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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A trade deadline like the one we just watched upsets us because it’s incoherent. The deals, individually, can be analyzed and explained and even justified. Looked at as a market, though, they don’t make sense. Bill C. wants to understand why his team’s GM didn’t do better than the Blue Jays’ GM did given he had better pitcher on offer with more team control. He reads Miguel Vargas and two A-ball infielders as less valuable than Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, and Will Wagner. So why didn’t Getz just trade Fedde to the Astros? We want an explanation.

There’s not going to be a satisfying one. As a practical matter, trades aren’t made as in a fantasy league, with someone posting that they have a starting pitcher on offer and they’re looking for draft picks. Some front offices do work better with others, whether it’s because they value players similarly or they have established personal connections. That’s been true for decades. The deadline is dynamic, as every single trade changes the mix of players on offer and the talent teams are looking to add. Each front office is under a different set of pressures from ownership, from fans, from the local media, from its players. Many of them simply aren’t working by the same rules everyone else is, as evidenced by the players in the Rockies/Angels game last night.
 
 

 

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, July 30, 2024 -- "Deadline Day"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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There are two teams that have yet to make a major-league trade in the deadline window. The A’s have been vocal about how they like their core, which is almost all controlled and inexpensive for years to come. They won’t buy, but unless they trade Brent Rooker, they’re likely to stand pat. The Twins are what the A’s hope to be in a few years, built around a core of homegrown players and shrewd trade additions. The Twins hold the AL’s second wild-card slot and are just 5 1/2 games out of first in the AL Central. They won’t be selling; it just doesn’t look like they will be buying big, maybe a reliever to lengthen the pen.

Monday, July 29, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, July 29, 2024 -- "Cardinals/Dodgers/White Sox Trade"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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I am second to very few people when it comes to believing in Miguel Vargas. However, Vargas has lost two years to the Dodgers’ failure to just drop him in the lineup and let him cook. Vargas has a .201/.294/.364 career line, an improved .239/.313/.423 this year. He strikes out just 20% of the time and, in 2024, has a 16/8 K/BB that’s much better than the league average. Vargas’s career OBP at Double-A and Triple-A is over .400. He just couldn’t find a place to play. The White Sox will have no such issue. Vargas, more than any of the three teams, is the biggest winner of this trade, maybe the biggest winner of the entire trade deadline.
 
 

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, July 28, 2024 -- "Early Deadline"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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How unusual? The trade deadline floats now, from as early as July 30 to as late as August 2, the actual date and time seemingly picked to maximize the amount of chaos before a night of baseball games. This year’s deadline falls 35 minutes before the Blue Jays and Orioles, two teams that have been and will continue to be active, take the field at Camden Yards. If you set deadline day, whenever it lands, as a fixed point and work backwards, you get D, D-1, D-2, etc. 

I did that for the last three years, using MLB.com’s transaction log. Sometimes a deal gets leaked to Jeff Passan at 8:30 p.m. and doesn’t become official until the next afternoon. Take it up with MLB. With that said, there’s no way to massage the numbers that changes the conclusion that this has been a notably active stretch. The 14 trades we’ve seen over the last three days, D-5 through D-3 in this parlance, are nearly as many as occurred on those days total over the last three years.

2021: 5
2022: 5
2023: 5
2024: 14