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10. Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76, second in NL West, 801 runs scored, 766 runs allowed).
This year’s winner of the award for Best Tee-Ball Team is...
Offense: fifth
Defense: third
Starters: 23rd
Bullpen: 23rd
You can’t say they haven’t invested in pitching, signing Corbin Burnes, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Soroka, and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, and pulling back Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly from that same pool. They built a pretty good bullpen, the best of which will miss most-to-all of the season with injuries. Maybe you ding them for bad judgment in some of their choices, but who was really against signing Burnes or giving Justin Martinez an extension a year ago.
The Diamondbacks have been better than they are given credit for. They won the NL pennant in 2023, missed the playoffs on a three-way tiebreaker at 89-73 the next year, and had to sell at the ’25 deadline when all their best pitchers got hurt, only to go on a 29-18 run that had them a game out of a playoff berth with five to play. They lost a Calvinball game to the Dodgers, though, then got crushed in a bullpen game, ending their run.
This core is extremely strong, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Ketel Marte each has a top-five MVP finish over the last three years. That group is finally joined by forever prospect Jordan Lawlar, still just 23, and now an outfielder who did post a 14/10 K/BB in spring training. The floor for position players is high, with Alek Thomas plus defensively in center and big defensive upgrades on the infield corners with Carlos Santana and Nolan Arenado. We’ll see how Lawlar works out in left while waiting for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s return, but there’s a pretty good argument that the Diamondbacks won’t have a below-average defender on the field most days.
They’ll have to out-hit and out-field their pitching, and I think they can, especially getting Burnes back at midseason and being able to go into the market to add relievers at the deadline. There’s a very small chance they push the Dodgers in the West, and a much higher one they settle into a wild-card berth.
Upside: The MVP candidates all play at that level together in one season, the team leads MLB in runs scored, and they give the Dodgers a fright at 93-69.
Downside: Even a strong defense can’t keep them from giving up 800 runs, and the bad bullpen causes them to lose a lot of close games. They sell at the deadline, but stay in the mix again and finish 81-81.
Modest Proposal: Drey Jameson didn’t pitch well in the Cactus League, earning a trip to Reno in his return from a couple of years lost to elbow issues. I wouldn’t let him get comfortable in the Biggest Little City in the World, as he was throwing 97 in camp and both his slider and change were getting some whiffs. Of the many options to bolster this pen, I like him the best.
