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When projecting a playoff series, I try to think of paths. What ways could each team beat the other, and how realistic are they? It’s hard to identify the Guardians’ paths through the Rays. They are off-rotation, with a heavily worked pitching staff, and they have the second-best everything. The Rays’ weak spot is one of the worst infield defenses in baseball by Outs Above Average. The Guardians, though, have a bottom-ten groundball rate (higher, though, since the trade deadline). The Guardians manage the strike zone well, with the best offensive K/BB in the AL. Rays pitchers had the fifth-lowest walk rate of any team this decade. If we take strikeouts and walks off the table and evaluate a team’s offense based on how it did when the bat hit the ball, the Guardians were second-to-last in the majors, just ahead of the Blue Jays. No team barreled fewer baseballs.
I don’t see how the Guardians are going to score, and I don’t think the current version of this pitching staff can hang enough zeroes to win a bunch of low-scoring games. Everything, save perhaps seven innings of Gavin Williams, points to the Rays. We’ll call it a gentleman’s sweep, Rays in five.
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