Monday, April 29, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 29, 2019 -- "Joey Votto"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"As of this morning, Votto is hitting .233/.340/.407 (95 OPS+), with an astonishing 26 strikeouts against just 13 walks. Votto hasn’t struck out more than he’s walked since 2016, and he hasn’t had a ratio anything like this since his rookie season in 2008. Votto’s 26% strikeout rate would be the highest of his career by far; he’s been up around 20% a few times in the past. His walk rate of 13% would be his lowest since 2009. A hitter defined by his command of the strike zone has badly misplaced that skill in the first month of 2019."

Friday, April 26, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 26, 2019 -- "A Month of Parity"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The extremes we saw in 2017 and 2018, the game dominated by a handful of great teams at their peaks, beating up on an underclass of squads indifferent to that night’s score, was not always entertaining. The rules that inhibit the teams at the top from getting better -- revenue sharing, the luxury tax, draft-pick penalties for very high payrolls -- are dragging the top back towards the middle. Teams like the Padres, Twins, and Phillies are emerging from rebuilding cycles to punch up at that weakened top tier."

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 23, 2019 -- "Expectation"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"When you throw those numbers together, you see how pitchers are changing the game. In 2008, when a team had a runner on third with less than two out, the pitcher got a strikeout 12.7% of the time. In 2019, that figure is 22.4%, nearly twice as often."

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 16, 2018 -- "Dingers!"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"For all of the complaints about the way batters approach their job now, what’s clear is that it works. Trading contact for power is producing the best on-contact results ever, despite what the old guy in the booth, who never in his life saw a 94-mph cutter, says. Five years ago, the league hit .251 and slugged .386 while scoring 4.2 runs a game. The pitchers are even better today, and it’s even harder to get a hit, but slugging is up 34 points and isolated power is up 40. Runs scored are up to 4.7 a game. We can have a debate about the aesthetics of it all, but you can’t argue the value of these approaches."

Friday, April 12, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 12, 2010 -- "Ozzie Albies"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"What this contract does is underline the challenge facing the MLBPA in the next CBA negotiation. For all the attention paid to free agents who have gone unsigned, or who signed contracts for far less than their comps in 2012 or 2002 might have, the real war is now over the likes of Ozzie Albies: excellent young players jammed up by a system that values service time rather than performance. Albies isn’t alone; there are dozens like him who have to be both good and healthy for nearly four seasons to gain any leverage at all in salary negotiations. Francisco Lindor was a top-ten player in MLB from 2015 through 2017, and he made $623,000 last year, about 10% over the league minimum. Corey Seager was one of the best players in baseball in 2016 and 2017, and was paid $605,000 in 2018. Aaron Judge has a section named after him at Yankee Stadium, one of the best-selling jerseys in the game, and a 2019 salary of $684,000."

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 10: "Thinking Inside the Box"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"We’re in an era in which managers have access to information that outside analysts do not. I’m reluctant, particularly this early in the season, to indict Kapler, because he may be picking his pitchers based on pitch type or arm action or the swing plane of the opposing hitters. What does seem to be certain is that he’s not picking them based on the save rule, or the inning-and-score model than has dominated reliever usage for a decade. How Kapler runs his bullpen -- a source of considerable controversy a year ago -- will be a fascinating topic this season."

Monday, April 8, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 8, 2019 -- "The Third Start"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"Who else is under a spotlight this week? Well, Corey Kluber hasn’t lost his fastball quite as rapidly as Sale has, but over two seasons his four-seamer has gone from 93.1 to 92.4 to 92.0, and his bread-and-butter pitch, the two-seam fastball, from 93 to 92.4 to 91.8. He hasn’t been getting the same amount of sink he did on the two-seamer as he did at his peak, either. I was wary of Kluber in the offseason, and will be watching his start in Detroit tomorrow carefully. Kluber’s five-year peak measures up to any of his peers, but at 33, we may be seeing the start of the decline phase."

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Newsletter Excerpt, April 4, 2019 -- "The Disappearing Single"

This is an excerpt from the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for more than 20 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with Joe and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $39.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"[Insert “Singles” Pun Here] (1B/PA)

2019  12.9%
2018  14.2%
2017  14.5%
2016  14.9%
2015  15.3%


"Singles are disappearing, and I mean quickly. From the end of World War II up until 2015, singles occurred in 15-17% of plate appearances and about 21% of events on contact. The only four seasons in baseball history in which singles haven’t been above 15% of PAs are the last four. The last time singles accounted for fewer than 21% of events on contact was 1888 (20.8%). The number was 21% last year, and is 19.7% in 2019."