Sunday, February 28, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 28, 2021 -- "Kevin Mather and the Mariners"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Change happens slowly, but it does happen. In baseball, we’re not far removed from Jim Bouton teaching us about the way baseball players treat women, not that far removed from Al Campanis lecturing Ted Koppel about the 'necessities' Black men supposedly lacked, not that far removed from a young Black superstar angering people because he wore his hat backwards. Change happens slowly, and in the same way that Fortune 500 companies now meet America where she is."

Friday, February 26, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 26, 2021 -- "Running Back 2019-20, and the Diamondbacks"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"That same management team is still in place, and we could see that upper-level development this season with Andy Young, with Josh Rojas, with speed demon Tim Locastro in center, with prospect Daulton Varsho. The Diamondbacks have a chance to win 85 to 88 games...in a world where that might get them exactly what it got them in 2019: a handshake and a free October. They needed to add a star, and instead they added Asdrubal Cabrera."

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 25, 2021 -- "Believing in Breakouts, and the Giants"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Still, the Giants project to have the oldest lineup in baseball this year, starting seven players 31 and older most days. As great a story last season’s offense was, this is going to be a slow, past-prime team at the plate and in the field."
 
 

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 23, 2021 -- "The Tatis Jr. Contract"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"So when the San Diego Padres look at 22-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. and decide to keep him in the brown-and-mustard well into his thirties, a marginal-win/marginal-dollar analysis seems largely beside the point. That model no longer fits, not when teams are treating the first win as essentially free, not when teams are rejecting all but the very best players who hit the market at 30 and older, not when the league subsidizes not trying to win more than it ever subsidized trying to win."
 
 

Friday, February 19, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 19, 2021 -- "Seven Free Agents, and the Red Sox"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The Sox signed six free agents this winter for a total 2021 outlay of $24 million. Throw in their decision to bring back Martin Perez, and the Sox are paying seven free agents about what the Jays will pay George Springer this year. They will actually pay three players, David Price, Dustin Pedroia, and Andrew Benintendi, more than that to not pay for them this year."
 

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 17, 2021 -- "LABR Recap"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"I was happy with the draft last night, and a bit less so today. Passing on Kris Bryant and Justin Turner left the team with a hole. I’m too heavy on players, as many as five, who won’t be on Opening Day rosters. And as is standard, I’m light on steals, having drafted slugs like Schwarber, Sano, and Arraez."
 
 

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 16, 2021 -- "LABR Preview"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Forget the 'best shape of his life' stuff. Even in what seems like a slow start to his career, Vladito has a 115 OPS+ in a bit more than a full season of playing time. We’re spoiled for comps, but his 38/19 K/UIBB last year is excellent for a 21-year-old in the modern game. The breakout is coming. His ADP is 55.8, which means I probably have to take him with that fourth-round pick or lose him."

Monday, February 15, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 15, 2021 -- "Three Relievers and the A's"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"This week, the A’s packed their bullpen, trading for Adam Kolarek, bringing back Yusmeiro Petit, and signing Sergio Romo. None of those names are going to drive talk radio, but collectively they create a very high floor for the bullpen, give Bob Melvin a lot of different looks with which to work, and all told will make less than $6 million guaranteed."

Friday, February 12, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 12, 2021 -- "Four Small Additions and the Tigers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The setup combination of Gregory Soto and Jose Cisnero is quietly very good. Bad teams often have bad bullpens, but this group is solid. The Tigers won’t have many leads but they should cash in the ones they have. With A.J. Hinch not needing to show much loyalty to anyone in this pen, the roles could be fluid."

Thursday, February 11, 2021

For Entertainment Purposes Only, 2021 v0.9

 

This is the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 

Part of the season-preview package around here is a set of recommendations for the season win total over/under bets that have become popular in recent seasons. Those are based on my official predictions that come out around Opening Day. In the last few years, in response to demand, I’ve also done some early versions once the numbers are published. Looking back, those came out on January 9 in 2019 and January 15 a year ago.

I’d have done the same this year, but the lines have only come out this week. Like the teams themselves, the bookmakers seem to have been waiting to see if the season would be delayed, shortened, or both, and perhaps also waiting to see how major offseason storylines -- Trevor Bauer, Nolan Arenado, the NL DH -- played out. This week, we finally got some numbers to use, as the Wynn became the first book to publish a set.

The value in doing these now is that the early numbers are usually where the value lies, betting them before they get moved by sharp bettors willing to let their money float for nine months. In theory [long pause for effect] I should be a sharp in this context. Well, in 2018 my three early picks went 3-0. In 2019, they went 2-1. Last year, my only recommendation was the Mariners under 67.5 and they didn’t come anywhere near...oh, fine, we won’t count that one, on your little “technicality.” It’s a small sample, but pairing these with my official picks -- 5-0* in 2018 and 2019 -- you can make your Newsletter subscription money back pretty easily on just two issues. That doesn’t even count my occasional longshot prop hits, like Christian Yelich to win the MVP at 200-1.

(*Maybe 4-0 with a refund depending on how the 2018 Marlins bet (U63.5, final record 63-98) is graded.)

So what jumps out from the Wynn numbers? Too much, to be honest.

Pirates under 62.5 wins. The Pirates were 19-41, a 51-win pace, in 2020. They traded away their best power hitter and most reliable starting pitcher and their starting pitcher with the highest 2021 upside. Their big winter pickup is Brian Goodwin. I have said a number of times that going under the lowest number on the board is usually a bad idea, but in recent years, that actually has not been the case. Today's worst teams are worse than the posted numbers. This is my favorite early pick.

Similarly, I’d recommend the Orioles under 64 wins. The Orioles are just as bad as the Pirates, with what could be the worst starting rotation we’ve seen in a long time. They’ll play the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays 57 times and might go something like 11-46 in those games.

Five other picks jump out at me, but I’m going to resist making a full recommendation on any of them. See, all five are among the 12 teams that I have yet to cover this offseason:

A’s under 84
Brewers under 83.5
Diamondbacks under 76
Mariners over 71.5
Marlins over 67.5

Now, that’s mostly because these five teams have been inert all winter, so I haven’t had the impetus to write about them. That all five come from that group of 12, though, makes me wonder if my initial reactions to these numbers are missing something I’ll find by digging deeper. So they’re a light pass for me, but if you want action, take a closer look at them.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 10, 2021 -- "Stability, and the Phillies"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"There are two ways to fix this problem. One is to improve the defense, which as we’ve discussed, did not happen. The other is to get relievers who will strike batters out. This is why I’d put Velasquez (27% strikeout rate as a reliever) out there. This is why the Phillies signed Archie Bradley (27% strikeout rate 2019-20) and traded for Jose Alvarado (28%) and Sam Coonrod (throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer at 98 mph)."

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, August 12, 2020 -- "Extra Innings"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Entertainment value cannot be the only measure of an idea, even in a spectator sport. The integrity of the competition has to matter, and placing a runner on second to start innings in extras is deleterious to the integrity of the competition. We know this in part because MLB has said so itself: MLB will not use the rule in the postseason, because the league recognizes that it’s a gimmick unfit for deciding a championship."
 
 

Monday, February 8, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 8, 2021 -- "An Empty Mound, and the Angels"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The Angels not getting Bauer underlines just how poorly Mike Trout has been served by his teammates on the mound. Since his first full season in 2012, just two teams have gotten less from their starting pitchers than the Angels have.

Used and Abused (worst team SP FanGraphs WAR, 2012-20)

         fWAR
Padres   61.9
Orioles  63.3
Angels   66.2
Royals   70.7
Marlins  71.2"


 
 
 

Sunday, February 7, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 7, 2021 -- "Expectations, and the Mets"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The Mets’ offseason is now carried by one very good trade, a trade that that might add eight wins all by itself. In acquiring Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, the Mets added the best player anyone added all winter and arguably more win expectancy than any team did."
 

Saturday, February 6, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 7, 2021 -- "Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"I don’t think Bauer is the pitcher he was for four months in 2018 or two months last year; the control has rarely been there to support that level of run prevention. Still, if I had to bet on any single player to make 30 starts in 2021, I’d pick Bauer. He has a very high floor, which pairs well with the Dodgers’ collection of hothouse flowers -- pretty ones, to be sure -- on the mound."
 
 

Friday, February 5, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 5, 2021 -- "A Busy Week, and the Twins"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Yes, that’s right, I still have the Twins as the best team in the Central. The White Sox are right there, but the Twins added four wins, and maybe as much as eight or nine, with their moves in the last week, and they did it without making a single 2022 commitment or spending all that much money in 2021. The rotation depth is a real problem and may have to be addressed in season; the Twins’ relatively low 2021 payroll ($125 million, per Cot’s) gives them the room to add a starter in July. If the Twins want to push their chips in this year, they have some prospect depth in the outfield and at shortstop that they could put to the cause."

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 3, 2021 -- "Nolan Arenado and the Cardinals"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Molina and the Cardinals are roughly where Derek Jeter and the Yankees were after the 2011 season: A declining great player wants to be paid as if only one of those adjectives were true, while it is clear that the player has more value to the team with which he’s spent his whole career than with any other. Jeter eventually squeezed three years and $51 million from the Yankees and was not a good player on his way out of the league. Molina won’t get nearly that much, but the dynamic is much the same. The player wants to be paid commensurate with his status, but his status applies only in one city. The team doesn’t want to pay for past performance."
 
 

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 2, 2021 -- "Negotiations and Love Songs"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"No, what MLB offered the players was playoff expansion in a Trojan horse. The league wants to make the playoff expansion it got in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season a permanent part of the baseball landscape. Remember, a year ago, before SARS-CoV-2 changed our lives, there were leaks of proposals that would expand the playoffs to seven teams in each league. MLB loves large playoffs."
 
 

Monday, February 1, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, February 1, 2021 -- "The End of an Era, and the Rockies"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The Rockies could fall to the level of a full-on tankbuilder team in the next few years, and while the definition of a 'playoff team' is in the process of being watered down, they don’t look likely to be a contender until the middle of the decade."