Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 28, 2022 -- "Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"You can tell just about any story you want to tell about the 2023 Rangers. It all comes together and they chase down the Astros to win the West. The pitching staff falls apart in a hail of injuries and the lineup makes too many outs, leaving them in fourth place. Something in between -- 70 good starts from the expensive guys, a much-improved bullpen, a quietly excellent defense, and 85 wins -- is my bet."

Thursday, December 22, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 22, 2022 -- "Wil Myers and the Reds"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Any time a bad team signs a player like Myers, you’ll hear 'and they can trade him at the deadline,' as if the market for two months of a two-win player is robust. That’s a line of thought I’d love to see stricken from coverage of the game. If Wil Myers had trade value he wouldn’t be signing with a bottom-five team for $7.5 million."

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 21, 2022 -- "Wait...what?"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Heyman reports that Correa will play third base, with the Mets’ incumbent. Francisco Lindor, keeping his shortstop job. This isn’t an Alex Rodriguez/Derek Jeter situation; Lindor is a very good defensive shortstop, and by some measures better than Correa is. Between the two, you’d likely project Correa, taller and with some back issues in his past, to have to move off shortstop first. Steamer pegs this as a 3 1/2-win upgrade for the Mets, and as someone very high on Correa, I think it’s closer to five wins."

Monday, December 19, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 19, 2022 -- "Dansby Swanson and the Cubs"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"So it’s not the years, and it’s not the money, it’s making a “big move” that doesn’t do what you need it to do, which is significantly improve the offense. The Cubs’ 2023 lineup is a feat of wishcasting, from Seiya Suzuki to Matt Mervis to Cody Bellinger, hoping a whole lot of players perform at or near the top of their ranges."

Friday, December 16, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 16, 2022 -- "The Years Don't Matter"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"So teams now have the strongest incentives in a long time to minimize AAV. There was a time they did so to keep short-term expenditures down, a time before massive national and local television deals made next year’s cash flow a non-issue. Now, they want to keep AAV down as a means of keeping the payroll from interfering with their ability to operate in the amateur talent markets."

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 14, 2022 -- "Uncle Steve Arrives"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"This December, though, we got the Manic Pixie Dream Owner that Mets fans have been waiting for. In a rush of signings wrapped around the winter meetings, Cohen retained key pieces of last year’s 101-win team while trying to build in pitching depth last year’s team lacked."

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Free Preview: "Trevor Hoffman and Andy Benes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 7, No. 125
December 21, 2015

Trevor Hoffman and Andy Benes were born about two months and 2,000 miles apart in 1967. Not that either of them would have cared at the time, but there were 782 complete games in MLB that year, and just 649 saves. In 375 of those saves, the pitcher credited with the save recorded at least four outs -- about 57% of the time. Two pitchers, John Wyatt and Elroy Face, led the league with 10 saves of one inning or fewer apiece -- a good month for someone like Glen Perkins these days.

Benes, from Indiana, would grow big and strong, dominating schoolboy hitters in Evansville, staying home for college at the Missouri Valley Conference outpost and becoming the very first pick in the 1988 draft. The Padres selected him and signed him to a contract with a $235,000 signing bonus, the highest ever to that point. A little more than a year later, Benes made his debut for a Padres team struggling to stay above .500 and within shouting distance of the Giants in the NL West. He acquitted himself well, with a 3.51 ERA (100 ERA+) in ten starts as the Padres closed on, but never caught, the Giants.

The strapping right-hander would never see the Padres' farm system again. For the next five years, he took the ball when it was given to him and tried to be an ace: 33 starts and 219 innings a year from 1990-93, as Tom Werner tore down the Padres, and on pace for more of the same when the players went on strike in 1994. In the 1994 Player Ratings Book, Bill James called Benes "one of the best pitchers in the game," while noting that Benes's win totals wouldn't rise until he joined a better team. At the start of 1995, it was clear that Benes wouldn't be a Padre for much longer. Even having his worst year --  4.17 ERA -- Benes was one of the prizes at the '95 trade deadline, and would eventually be sent to the Mariners in exchange for Marc Newfield and Ron Villone. Those names may not mean much today, but Newfeld was a top-30 prospect and Villone a top-60 prospect at the time, representing the kind of package you can't get any more for a half-season of an impending free agent.

Hoffman had a less-direct path to his MLB career. Undrafted out of high school and barely recruited, Hoffman ended up at Cypress College in Orange County, Calif. He played well enough to eventually land at the University of Arizona and -- as a shortstop -- was drafted by the Reds in the 11th round in 1989. Benes took about a year to reach the majors; Hoffman took almost two just to find his position. After two seasons of anemic batting in the lower levels of the Reds' minors, the organization moved him to the mound to take advantage of his arm. After a year of effective relief work, he rose to become the #8 prospect in the Reds' system per Baseball America. The Reds tried him as a starter in 1992, but he was back in the bullpen by the end of the year. The Marlins took Hoffman in the expansion draft after the season and he made the team out of spring training. By the end of April, he was the expansion squad's set-up man behind Bryan Harvey, even as his command often failed him. Hoffman had a 3.52 ERA on June 22 when the Marlins shipped him as part of a three-player package to San Diego for Gary Sheffield.

The very first save opportunity Hoffman got in San Diego was protecting a 1-0 lead for Benes on June 27, 1993. The first overall pick turned the game over to the converted shortstop on a night when the starter had struck out ten men over seven one-hit innings, only to leave for a pinch-hitter in the seventh. Hoffman would blow the game, allowing a pinch-hit RBI double to Gary Varsho in the eighth.

The two players would be teammates for two years, but in that time, Hoffman went from some kid acquired in a fire sale to an established closer, saving 20 games in the four-month 1994 season and 31 more in the shortened 1995 one. Benes went from the Padres' ace to a focal point for the local fans' frustration -- this #1 pick who couldn't win 20 games! -- and eventually became a Seattle Mariner.

At 21, Benes was the most desirable amateur baseball player in the country. At 21, Hoffman was a college shortstop. At the age of 24, Benes was a 15-game winner, Hoffman was a failed shortstop and failed starter throwing Triple-A relief and about to be exposed in the expansion draft. At the age of 25, Benes was an ace, while Hoffman was the guy the ace's team could pay a lot less than they had to pay the MVP-caliber third baseman. At 26, Benes had already thrown more MLB innings than Hoffman would in his entire career.

At 48, Benes is a forgotten man, while Hoffman is a candidate to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

In thinking about Hoffman and the Hall of Fame, I keep coming back to Andy Benes. Benes was a starter in college and in the minors and for all but a handful of outings in his 14-year major-league career. He was a horse in that role -- basically healthy through the age of 33, missing a handful of starts in 1997 not to an arm problem but a broken finger. Benes is one of the better overall #1 picks of all time. He may have disappointed Padres fans by being a league-average starter rather than a superstar one, but he was an All-Star and he picked up award votes a handful of times. When he hit free agency, which he did twice, he was paid the going rate for top-tier starting pitchers. At no point during his career did anyone suggest that Benes should stop throwing 200 innings a year and start throwing 70.

If they had, would he be on a ballot today?

Benes is why I can't get behind the idea of Trevor Hoffman for the Hall of Fame. I don't know for sure that Benes could have done what Hoffman did, but I know that many, many pitchers have done so. I am certain that Hoffman could not do what Benes did, and just as certain that what Benes did -- be a good starting pitcher for a decade -- is more valuable than what Hoffman did, which is to be a short reliever, and then a one-inning reliever, for 15 years. Benes isn't being considered for induction; in fact, he never appeared on a ballot.

Average starting pitchers are more valuable than closers, and we know this because salaries are made public. The most money anyone's every paid a relief pitcher in a given year was $15 million -- that was to Mariano Rivera. Rafael Soriano did the best in the market, at $14 million per season. The biggest single contract went to Jonathan Papelbon, at $50 million. Do any of these numbers cause you to gasp? Jeff Samardzija has been a lesser version of Andy Benes for the last four years; he's going to make $18 million a year. J.A. Happ is a #4 starter, maybe a #5. He'll get $12 million a year. This very offseason, Happ and Darren O'Day were both free agents. O'Day has been one of the best relievers in baseball for four years running; he got less over four years than Happ got for three. The best starting pitchers in baseball make $30 million a year. The best position players in baseball make $25 million a year. The best reliever ever maxed out at $15 million.

Given everything we've seen over the past 20 years, closers being made out of starting pitchers and first basemen and catchers and shortstops, with the industry drawing a clear distinction between the players it values and the players it doesn't, with every roster now peppered with guys who can do what Hoffman did, elevating the standard for what a pitcher in this limited role can do if trained for it, how can we consider players in this role -- this thing you land in when you can't do the other stuff -- for the Hall? How can we forget Andy Benes and lionize Trevor Hoffman when the real difference between them is that Benes was too good and too valuable to do Hoffman's job?

The argument against modern relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame is the gap between Andy Benes and Trevor Hoffman. Is there much question that if you told a 26-year-old Andy Benes to stop providing all those starts and all those innings, and instead focus on throwing 15 pitches a night three days a week, he'd have been both more effective and less valuable? Or that if you'd told a 26-year-old Trevor Hoffman to start carrying his weight and ramp it up, he'd have washed out of the league in under two years?

If you want to put Trevor Hoffman in the Hall of Fame, that's fine. Just remember to save the spot on the wall next to him for Andy Benes, because then Benes belongs, too.

Monday, December 12, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 12, 2022 -- "NL East and AL East Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"It’s funny to see all the praise being heaped upon Dave Dombrowski, when for a decade now his primary skills have been trading other people’s prospects and spending other people’s money."

Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, December 7, 2022 -- "Aaron Judge"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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Around 4 a.m., I texted a friend to cancel lunch plans for…well, now. It was hubris to make plans during the winter meetings. Maybe I just forgot what the meetings could be like after two years without them. Maybe I expected them to be uninteresting, because interesting baseball Decembers have gone the way of complete games and dedicated pinch-hitters and 16th innings.

The text read, in part, “Aaron Judge is probably leaving the Yankees.” I went to sleep thinking that would be the case, that the most popular athlete in New York since Derek Jeter retired would be taking his talents westward, to the Giants, who need a star like San Francisco needs housing. Signing Judge would serve to replace Buster Posey as the team’s locus, the team’s best player, the team’s likable superstar. 

Then, I slept, and when I woke up, the Yankees were once again the Yankees. The team had agreed to sign Judge to a nine-year contract for $360 million, the third-largest in baseball history, bringing back the 2022 AL MVP, the owner of the AL single-season home-run record, the spiritual architect of the Judge’s Chambers in Section 104.

Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner were trapped by their lack of options. Judge was, for most of last season, the Yankees’ offense. He produced 80 batting runs for a team that produced 96 in total. No returning Yankee produced more than 17. There is young talent coming, including a potential superstar in Anthony Volpe, but the projected Yankees offense without Judge…now around Judge...is heavy on the same group of thirtysomethings who weren’t good enough or available enough this past season. There was no Judge-like second option in free agency, either. The Yankees’ choices were to sign Judge or not score enough runs to win.

This will surely keep the Yankees in the American League mix in 2023, even perhaps allow them to once again fend off the Rays and Blue Jays for an AL East crown. Judge will be the bridge from this aging, expensive lineup to one with Volpe and Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells and Oswald Peraza and Trey Sweeney.

The money won’t matter; the Yankees print money. No, how this deal ages will depend on whether Judge can fight the historical trends on tall hitters, both performance and health. The cautionary tale, of course, is right there: Giancarlo Stanton is 2 1/2 years older than Judge and one of the only comps for him in baseball history. Stanton has played just over 500 innings in the field the last two seasons, missed more than 70 games to injury in those two years and hit .211/.297/.462 at age 32. Judge, of course, was a better player than Stanton was at 29 and 30, and so he has further to fall. Judge is likely to be one of the best players in baseball next year and a very good one for a few years to come.

The Yankees have retained their one essential talent, and if in the long term they end up paying for the decline of that talent, well, that is just baseball’s compensation structure. They paid Judge about $36 million for the first six-plus seasons of his career. They’ll pay him more than that, on average, each year for the remainder of it. 

This contract isn’t about 2028 or 2029, though. It’s about 2023. The Yankees kept their best player, a homegrown superstar, by paying him a lot of money to stay. Judge is worth more to the Yankees than he would be to any other team, and come March 30, no one is going to be thinking about the aging curves of tall players or the luxury tax or Judge’s 2027 Steamer projection. They’re going to be cheering #99 on a cool spring afternoon, waiting for the command to all rise. 

 

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 6, 2022 -- "deGrom and Verlander"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The Mets signing Verlander wasn’t a choice they made between him and deGrom. The Mets signing Verlander was a very quick, very essential reaction to the loss of their #1 starter."

Monday, December 5, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, December 5, 2022 -- "AL West Notes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"As much as some six-win addition seems necessary to tie this together, perhaps it will have to be enough for Rendon and Mike Trout to be those additions by playing a full schedule. The two missed a combined 158 games last year, and 230 in 2021. There is no factor more important to the success of the 2023 Angels than $70 million worth of baseball players playing with the frequency and productivity that figure implies they should. Perry Minasian can make all the small deals he wants, but if the Angels don’t get 12 WAR from Rendon and Trout, they probably can’t make the playoffs."
 
 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, December 5, 2022 -- "NL West Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The way the incentives work now, though, it’s not certain. The Dodgers learned last year what they keep learning, which is that lots of regular-season wins just don’t buy you very much. Only nerds like me care whether you win 97 or 117. The Dodgers also know that the repeater penalties for going over the tax threshold are severe and to be avoided if possible. One year under the threshold would be a big deal for a team that paid $60 million in taxes the last two years, while also working under the various other penalty structures -- draft-pick penalties, differentiation in free-agent compensation, differentiation in international bonus pools."

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 30, 2022 -- "AL Central Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The real key, though, won’t be found in San Diego next week, but in Chicago next summer. That vaunted Sox core combined unavailability with underperformance in a brutal fashion. Only Jose Abreu played in 140 games, only Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, and AJ Pollock qualified for the batting title. Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada, two of the team’s reliable OBP sources, tanked. This core, save Abreu, is all coming back, and Grifol’s primary task will be getting them back to health and to their pre-2022 levels."

Monday, November 28, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 28, 2022 -- "NL Central Notes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Yelich is now a problem for the Brewers, who have a lot of good-not-great players like him. Their stars are on the mound, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, and early speculation has them possibly trading one of them to manage payroll. This would effectively be adding to the cost of the Yelich contract and likely be the start of an ugly spiral. It’s one thing to spend $29 million a year on three wins; it’s another to sell off your true core to subsidize that expense."

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 17, 2022 -- "Cashman's Cash Men"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Drill down further, and you see Cashman built a 99-63 team in 2022, one that was beaten in the ALCS by a better team, the one that went on to win the World Series. Is Cashman just a bystander to that success? No, of course not; he and the front office he leads drafted Aaron Judge, signed Luis Severino, traded for Clay Holmes, picked Matt Carpenter off the scrap heap. That trade with the Twins everyone hates now (emphasis on now, as opposed to May) was good for a net 1.4 bWAR and sent away a player, in Gary Sanchez, whom the fan base despised by the end of his time in New York. Enjoy Nestor Cortes? That was Brian Cashman. Like the Jose Trevino story? Also Cashman."

Monday, November 14, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 14, 2022 -- "The Interesting List"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"They have to spend some money right now. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are here, Grayson Rodriguez is coming, you’re paying the three of them $2 million, maybe $3 million a year, through 2025. You can afford some $30 million players around them. Go get two middle-of-the-order hitters and two starting pitchers and you’ll still be $50 million under the tax threshold. The 2022 season caught the locals’ interest; it’s critical to keep it."

Friday, November 11, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 11, 2022 -- "Carlos Correa"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"A team signing Correa gets his age-28 to age-34 seasons. Forget positional value, platform year, career to date, all of it. It’s incredibly hard to make up the difference between getting one player from ages 28 to 30 and the other from 35 to 37, which is what we’re talking about."

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 10, 2022 -- "Trea Turner"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The players who age the best are the ones who have broad skill sets that include speed. Turner, like Larkin, does everything well on a baseball field. Larkin was the better defensive shortstop, Turner hits for more power. In Larkin’s era, Turner might have stolen 80 bases a year, and in Turner’s era, Larkin might have hit 300 homers. (He had 198 in his career.) Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores have Larkin as Turner’s second-best comp through age 29."

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, November 9, 2022 -- "Aaron Judge"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 14, No. 112
November 9, 2022

Measuring baseball greatness is both an exact science and a muddled mess, so take a statement like “Aaron Judge just had one of the 25 best seasons ever” with a grain of salt. Which version of WAR you use, how much you adjust for era, whether you just toss seasons prior to integration...you can get to a lot of answers. What we can say for sure is that we witnessed history in 2022, Judge hitting .311/.425/.686 with, and this didn’t get a lot of attention, an AL-record 62 home runs. With the Yankees outfield a tragedy, Judge played 78 games in center field and acquitted himself well.

What’s certain is that Judge’s 2022 season (10.6 bWAR) is one of the all-time walk years in history. Only Barry Bonds in 2001 produced more bWAR (11.9) entering free agency, and only Alex Rodriguez in 2000, in addition to Judge and Bonds, was over ten wins just before entering the market. Rodriguez signed a record-setting $252-million contract; Bonds, then 37, settled for five years and $90 million from the Giants. Platform year performance and age are the two biggest determinants of a free agent’s eventual contract. Judge is at the extreme end of one and on the wrong side of the other.

If it were just about 2023, or even perhaps the next three years, signing Aaron Judge would be a no-brainer at almost any number. The best free-agent investments are always, always, at the top and bottom of the market. Sign superstars, or sign lottery tickets. It’s the big money for the middle of the pool that gets everyone in trouble. The best players are more likely to stay great and they have further to fall while still being productive. If Aaron Judge is half the player he was last year, he’s still a star, and that’s an unlikely fall.

Judge being 31 next year, though, is a concern no matter how good he was at 30. Baseball is increasingly a young man’s game, with older hitters at the most risk of no longer keeping up with modern pitching. In the entire league last year, there were 14 hitters 31 or older who were worth three wins. There were 23 in 2021, 12 in 2019, nine in 2018. (I’m guessing that 2021 figure has something to do with the pandemic, maybe with young players’ development being hurt in 2020.) Judge will be 33 in the third year of his next contract. In 2022, there were five players 33 and older who were worth three wins. There were eight last year, ten in 2019, five in 2018.

Your eyes may be blurring at this point, so let me sum up that paragraph for you: It’s very hard to be a good player in your thirties in modern baseball. Mind you, the standard here is just three wins, a good MLB regular. If by 2025 Aaron Judge is posting three-win seasons while making $45 million a year, no one is going to consider that a success.

The biggest free-agent deals are generally signed by the youngest players, the ones who still have some peak left, some upside left. Alex Rodriguez was 24 in his walk year, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were 25. (Jason Heyward, too, whoops.) Corey Seager was 27. Aaron Judge was 21 on the day he signed out of the draft and 25 before he was a major-league regular. He had five five-win seasons for the Yankees. You want to guess at how many he has left? I’ll set the line at 2.5 and want no part of the over.

The Yankees paid Judge, in salary, about $40 million for 37 WAR; he will get more than that in the first year of his next deal, which isn’t the problem. The problem is he will get more than that in the final year of his next deal, at 37 or 38 or 39, and there’s just no case for paying any hitter at those ages. Since 2016, there have been a total of six four-win seasons by players 35 and older. There have been a total of 17 three-win seasons by players 35 and older. Your list of productive older players in the Strikeout Era is basically Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Yuli Gurriel, and Ben Zobrist.

Age is one strike against making a long-term commitment to Aaron Judge. He’s surely had his best years and you will have to pay him current-market value at ages when almost no players are good, much less worth $40 million a season. Judge, though, comes with another strike, one we’ve discussed here before: He’s 6'7", and the track record of aging tall hitters is a disaster.

Falling From Great Heights (bWAR from age 31 on, hitters 6'6" and up)

Dave Winfield       26.2
Frank Howard        17.8
Giancarlo Stanton    3.8
Dave Kingman         2.8
Adam Wainwright      2.2



As I always point out, that’s Adam Wainwright's production as a hitter and defender -- it doesn’t include his pitching. He’s among the top five tall hitters after age 30.

Everyone wants to think the next guy is different, and maybe Aaron Judge is. Dave Winfield did it! Well, Winfield was one of the all-time great baseball athletes, the kind of true three-sport star we don’t let develop any longer. He played until he was 43 but had just one good year after 36. Judge is very athletic for his size; he’s not Dave Winfield. Frank Howard was a beast at the plate who might have hit 500 homers had he not played through Deadball II in the 1960s. Howard was not the athlete Judge is, and he was done at 35. That’s the list.

Oh, that third name on there? Do you think the Yankees really need to be lectured about the downside risk of tall outfielders? Giancarlo Stanton had a three-win year at 31 and was useless at 32. He played barely 500 innings in the outfield in that time and might not play that many over the rest of his career. Stanton is guaranteed $160 million over the next five years. The presence of Stanton complicates any Judge contract for the Yankees because you can’t play two players at DH, and Judge will eventually need to stop playing 1200 innings in the field.

(The Yankees, who have been a very popular topic in my inbox, will get a dedicated Newsletter soon.)

I can’t say for sure why very tall hitters age so poorly. My best guess is the bigger you are, the longer it takes to get all the moving parts of a swing going. Losing just a little bit of the hand-eye coordination it takes to be a great hitter may affect this group more than it does shorter players. If you lower the qualifier to 6'5", it brings in some guys who lasted a bit longer, but with injury-riddled thirties -- Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas. John Olerud is on the list but was basically done at 35. Jayson Werth was a zero at 32 and 33, then had two good years and was done at 36.

If you tell me I can sign Judge for five years and $225 million, I probably take that and just live with the decline in 2025 and 2026. Judge, though, turned down 7/230 already, and with this likely being his only chance to get paid, is probably uninterested in that sort of structure. Judge’s average salary could be anything, but I am pretty sure the contract length won’t be any shorter than seven years, and it could stretch to ten. I’m entirely uninterested in signing him, given all the data above about older players and tall hitters, to anything like that deal.

The one structure I would try to put together is an early opt-out that captures Judge’s short-term value while potentially getting me off the hook for the rest of his career. I would treat him like a pitcher, in other words, front-loading a deal for 2023 and 2024 and offering an opt-out after ’24, in the hopes that Judge plays well enough to test the market in two years, getting me off the hook for his age-33 seasons and beyond. Maybe something like 8/360, where the first two years are $50 million each and the last six average $43 million or so. Even writing it out, though, I am having a hard time crafting a deal that is both attractive to Judge and formatted so it's likely he will opt out.

The combination of one of the best platform seasons ever with a truly terrible free-agent profile makes this a brutal case. This piece makes it seem like I think Aaron Judge is bad, which is obviously not true. He’ll probably be an MVP candidate in 2023, wherever he plays, and at least a decent player for a few years after that. I just can’t see investing $350 million in any player’s thirties, much less one of Judge’s height.

So if not Judge, who is the most attractive free agent on the market? Tune in tomorrow...
 
 
 

Monday, November 7, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 7, 2022 -- "Coda"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Playoff coverage is actually getting worse instead of better, for reasons I don’t completely understand, beyond the obvious commercial ones. There is more money in making people mad than making people understand, a media lesson that goes far beyond sports. Until the messaging about the playoffs gets better, until fans are told over and over again that the results of short series aren’t big-picture meaningful, that there is no team-building methodology that makes you more likely to win October games than June games, we’re going to go through this again and again."

Sunday, November 6, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 6, 2022 -- "Dynasty"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Alvarez knew. He knew before Alvarado did, knew before Matt Vierling out in center did, knew before the guys in the booth or the fans in the stands. He didn’t strut, didn’t pose, just started down to first watching the ball like a guy who knew he wouldn’t be running hard. I’ve watched a lot of games played at Minute Maid Park, and I am sure I have never seen a ball hit over the batter’s eye in center, but that’s where this one landed, 450 feet away from home plate. It would have been an epic blast on a muggy night in July against the Marlins. To win the World Series? It was legendary before the ball even landed."

Friday, November 4, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 4, 2022 -- "Phillies Chas-tened"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The Phillies bullpen, though, is the story of this postseason. Phillies relievers have allowed just three runs in 23 2/3 innings in this World Series. They are striking out the Astros, a very hard team to strike out, 30% of the time. It was just not possible to see this coming."

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, November 3, 2022 -- No(hit)vember

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 14, No. 108
November 3, 2022

So, yeah, Cristian Javier is pretty good.

Once again leaning on that four-seamer that hitters can’t seem to find, Javier threw six no-hit innings as part of a combined no-hitter that tied the World Series up at two games apiece. Javier struck out nine batters, and of the nine who put balls in play, none came close to a hit. Per Baseball Savant, none of the Phillies’ batted balls had even a .330 expected batting average, and six of the nine came in under .100. Javier didn’t pitch past the sixth, but this is what a dominant postseason pitching performance looks like in 2022.

(Editor Scott points out that this is also what no-hitters look like in 2022. Six of the last seven no-hitters have been combined efforts.)

It was the second time this year Javier contributed to a combined no-hitter, the first coming against the Yankees in June. In 12 1/3 innings in these playoffs, Javier has allowed just one run on two hits, and he’s struck out 36% of the batters he’s faced. In his three-year career, he now has a 2.20 postseason ERA, with 48 strikeouts against just 14 hits allowed. No, that’s not a typo.

It’s fair to hold combined no-hitters apart a bit, as no-hitters are more individual accomplishments than team ones. When that combined no-hitter happens with a team down 2-1 in the World Series, though, it’s possible to be too jaded. It was a no-hitter in the World Series! That’s happened exactly once, 66 years ago. It was a no-hitter in the postseason! That’s happened one other time, 12 years ago. I don’t care if the Astros used all 38 pitchers they’re carrying and the Phillies went up there with souvenir bats, that’s a big moment, that’s an incredible accomplishment.

Last night I got a text message from a friend who more or less told me to do more bat flips, so from October 11...

One Big Question: Will we see the third postseason no-hitter this year? Justin Verlander left the game with a no-hitter intact three times in his last six starts. The Dodgers (1114) and Astros (1121) allowed the second- and third-fewest hits of any team since 1968, and two of the bottom-15 totals of all time.

To turn a no-hitter into a win, however, the Astros needed to score, something that has been a problem for them this postseason, and was one for four innings last night. The Astros strung together three singles to start the fifth, though. With Yordan Alvarez coming up, Rob Thomson hooked Nola and went to his best left-handed reliever, just as he did in Game One. It was another aggressive call from Thomson, who just seems to understand postseason baseball. Unfortunately for him, the other guys get paid, too. Alvarado drilled Alvarez with his first pitch, forcing in the first run of the game. He then got too much of the plate with an 0-2 sinker -- at 101, mind you -- to Alex Bregman, who was able to go the other way for a two-run double. By the time the inning was over, the Astros were up 5-0 and the Phillies bullpen’s scoreless streak was over.

The Astros’ five-run fifth was the latest crooked number in a World Series defined by them. There have been 30 runs scored in the Series, 15 by each team. Of those 30, 27 have come in innings of two runs or more. There have been just three single-run innings in four games. Of the 72 “ups” in the World Series, runs have been scored in just 13 of them. It’s big-inning baseball, and both teams have been up for it.

That the Phillies are tied 2-2 in this Series is remarkable when you consider that everyone figured their path to a victory was through the right arms of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Through four games, the two of them have allowed 13 of the 15 runs the Phillies have conceded, they have an 8.10 ERA in 13 2/3 innings, and neither has seen the sixth inning. Wheeler isn’t even starting today’s critical Game Five on four days’ rest, Thomson electing to hold him back over concerns about his fatigue level.

The Phillies are going with Noah Syndergaard instead. Syndergaard, acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline, isn’t really Thor any more. He throws 94 now, down 3-4 mph from his pre-surgery peak, and is as likely to try to get you out with his curve as he is to blow a fastball past you. He was basically average this year for the Halos and Phils, a 3.94 ERA, 3.83 FIP in 5 1/2 innings a start, a combined two wins above replacement. Thomson has worked around him in this run, starting him just once, in NLDS Game Four, and hooking him after ten batters (3 IP, 1 R).

Given Syndergaard’s current skill set, Thomson’s aggressiveness, the off day tomorrow and a lightly worked bullpen, I don’t think the starter will be in the game for long. While all this is game-script dependent, something like Syndergaard for 11 batters, Ranger Suarez for three (Alvarez/Bregman/Tucker), Zack Eflin for six, then Jose Alvarado, David Robertson, and Seranthony Dominguez for whatever is left seems right. I’d rather ask Suarez for 15 pitches on his second day after a start than put Brad Hand into a meaningful spot or use Alvarado that early in the game. If the Phillies can get to Alvarado with the game still in the balance, they can win this one. All of the risk, though, is in that first time through the lineup. The last time they were in this spot, needing help from the back of the rotation, Bailey Falter put them behind 4-0 after seven batters.

The story today, though, is Justin Verlander. In this space, where we don’t define players by small subsets of their career, Verlander’s legacy is set. He’s one of the very best pitchers of the 21st century, with an argument that he is the very best. He has a ring, he has awards, he has career earnings of more than $300 million, and he has a supermodel wife. There’s nothing Verlander can do tonight in Philadelphia to change my mind about him.

This space, however, isn’t the wider world. Verlander goes to the mound tonight with an increasingly horrid track record on the biggest stage: a 6.07 ERA in eight World Series starts. His teams are 1-7 when he takes the mound in the Fall Classic and have lost four straight. He’s never had a signature start at this level; his best postseason start came in 2017, when he posted six innings of two-run ball (Game Score: 67) in a 3-1 Astros loss. He has two other six-inning quality starts in the World Series. He’s pitched into the seventh once in eight Series starts, and never gotten an out after the sixth. He’s never been credited with a World Series win. Cristian Javier, just to pick a name at random with less than 1% of Verlander’s career, has been. Verlander’s good work, at volume, in the AL brackets over the years -- a 3.04 ERA in 160 ALDS and ALCS innings -- isn’t what people remember.

This is arguably the biggest game in which Verlander has ever pitched, with his team tied 2-2 in the World Series. Verlander has had two chances to clinch World Series in the past. In 2017’s Game Six, he pitched well but got just one run of support in a 3-1 loss. In 2019, he coughed up an early lead in the fifth inning, allowing two solo homers to put the Astros behind for good in a Series they would lose in seven games.

Everything is set for Verlander tonight. He was the best pitcher in his league this year and is pitching for the best team he’s ever played for. He gets the ball on a fairly cool, fairly dry night; we saw the ball wasn’t flying much in last night’s contest, and the conditions will be similar tonight. He’s had an extra day of rest, and in fact, has barely pitched over the last five weeks. He doesn’t need to go the distance, doesn’t need to pace himself. The Astros have such incredible pitching depth that five good innings from Verlander should be plenty.

The ugly reality of the expanded-playoffs era is that to history, October matters more than the six months that precede it. All-time greats have had their career accomplishments ignored in favor of a listing of playoff failures. Others we remember as legends because they got the big hit, the big strikeout, the big double play. Barry Bonds over here, David Ortiz over there. Alex Rodriguez over here, Derek Jeter over there. No stats, just vibes.

Tonight, Justin Verlander’s career gets sorted, for good, into one of those groups.
 

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, November 2, 2022 -- "Blowout"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"After these last few games, I am wondering if I was overrating Baker because his teams have been so good they’ve been hard to screw up. For him to express worry about going through his whole pitching staff, which consists of 13 pitchers, ten of whom were available to him in relief last night, is mind-boggling."

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 30, 2022 -- "Game Two"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Wheeler pitched away from his four-seamer last night, throwing just 15 in his five innings. He may have felt something; his best fastball last night was about a full tick below his average fastball in his last start against the Padres. The combination of his pitch selection and the missing velocity is something to watch for if Wheeler gets back to the mound in this Series."

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 29, 2022 -- "Ghosts"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Thomson put on a clinic, using his best lefty, Jose Alvarado, to face Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in the fifth, rather than the one you might expect to see in the fifth inning, Brad Hand. He later tapped his lefty starter, Ranger Suarez, to face that same part of the lineup in the seventh and eighth. He went to his best reliever, Seranthony Dominguez, to preserve a tie in  the eighth and ninth. In all, Thomson got 5 2/3 shutout innings from his bullpen on a night when they needed every single zero."

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 27, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: World Series Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Thomson’s goal should be to ape Dave Martinez’s work in ’19, using those six pitchers for as many innings as possible, keeping the Astros away from the soft underbelly of his staff. The Phillies are unlikely to score runs in bunches the way they did in getting here, and will need to win low-scoring games to win the World Series."

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, October 25, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: A Thousand-Word Play"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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From Sunday night:

@joe_sheehan: Oh, I want to do 2,000 words on that play.

The play in question was a double play turned by the Yankees in the ninth inning off a Jeremy Peña bunt. It contained, in ten seconds, as much baseball as entire games in this postseason have had.

The Astros led 6-5 with the top of the order due to bat in the ninth against Clay Holmes. Jose Altuve led off the inning with a soft single to right, giving him his first two-hit game of this postseason.

Jeremy Peña, who had earlier hit a three-run homer to tie the game, saw Josh Donaldson playing on the dirt and put down a bunt to the left side. While it wasn’t a perfect bunt, Peña did well to get his bat on the pitch, a 95-mph two-seamer up and with a ton of armside run, a very difficult pitch to bunt. He was clearly bunting for a hit, with Donaldson back and Holmes, being right-handed, falling off to the right side. Had Peña gotten it just a bit more towards the third-base line, he probably would have succeeded.

“Never bunt” is a great slogan, and one of the triumphs of the stathead revolution is getting teams to all but eliminate the use of the sacrifice bunt. It's usually a play that costs a team more than it helps. Bunting for a hit, though, is often a good play, an underused one. Bunting is harder than it once was, for the same reasons hitting is harder than it once was. But in situations where just reaching base is valuable -- with nobody out, mostly -- it can be a weapon. Bunting for a hit and bunting for a run -- squeeze plays -- are exceptions to the “never bunt” rule.

Holmes made a great read and react, stopping his momentum and getting to the ball with plenty of time to throw out Peña. He had the ball while Peña was less than halfway down the line. Holmes, though, double-clutched, making the play at first a bit closer, but he still threw out Peña by about half a step. For a right-handed pitcher, this was a very good defensive play. To this point, everyone had executed, Holmes a little better than Peña.

It wasn’t a notable play until Jose Altuve took a shot. Seeing that third base was entirely uncovered, Altuve never broke stride going around second and took off for third. Josh Donaldson was over by the mound, having charged the bunt. Shortstop Oswaldo Peraza had jogged towards second to take a possible throw that never came. When Altuve rounded second, there was no one within 40 feet of third base.

I love this aggressiveness. Take an undefended base! More than that, I love the awareness. Altuve, who had the play in front of him, picked up that Donaldson was far from the bag on his way to second and never slowed down.

Donaldson, to his credit, realized there was a problem. In a series, in a month, when his failure to hit has been one of the big reasons the Yankees’ season is over, he still showed up in the field. As Altuve rounded second, and as Holmes’s throw arrived at first, Donaldson began to break back to the bag. Now, it’s a footrace.

Well, it’s not just a footrace, because Donaldson needs the ball. This is where Anthony Rizzo comes in. Rizzo likes to use his arm. One of the images I keep from those great Cubs teams is Rizzo charging a bunt, often ending up a few feet from home plate in an effort to make a play on the lead runner. It’s a wonder no one ever swung away and took his head off with a liner. In his 20s, Rizzo was regularly throwing out 20 guys a year at second base, almost always among the league leaders in doing so. Rizzo threw out just five this year, which is mostly due to the disappearance of sacrifice bunting as he moved to a DH league.

Rizzo’s throw on the Altuve play is a reminder that he still retains the skill, assist totals be damned. Nearly flat-footed, he hit a moving Donaldson on Donaldson’s glove side about six feet from the bag, beating Altuve by...well, Altuve was barely in the frame when Donaldson went to tag him. Although Altuve made his decision to go to third pretty early, he was still running straight to the second-base bag and ended up making a very wide turn. That cost him here, and in trying to get to third he overslid the bag. I can’t tell if Donaldson got Altuve before he arrived, but Altuve never came close to holding the bag and was easily called out.

The term “TOOTBLAN” (Thrown Out On The Bases Like A Nincompoop) has become a fun part of the lexicon, and I use it a lot myself. Not all baserunning outs are TOOTBLANs, though. Sometimes they’re just plays where everyone executes and the defense wins. That was the case here. With the base undefended, with one out (Altuve turned his head to see if Peña would be out at first), with a fast baserunner, with Yordan Alvarez likely to be walked no matter where Altuve stopped, all of the green lights were on. Altuve, slowed by his path to third, was just beat by a good throw and a nice hustle play by Donaldson.

So much of baseball happens between the mound and home plate now that we forget how it is supposed to be a game that happens everywhere else. In its design, the “pitcher” was just that, someone who pitched the ball to the batter, underhand, to start the action. Nowadays, hurlers all too often end the action. This play -- a bunt, a sharp fielding play, aggressive baserunning, a strong throw -- is a rare play this postseason that has the DNA of baseball as it was meant to be played.
 

Monday, October 24, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 24, 2022 -- "Heroes"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"So when Bryce Harper walks to the plate in the bottom of the eighth, his team down a run, a baserunner on first base, the pennant on the line, it’s an opportunity. Not for Harper, but for us. Sure, it’s a fun story when Trent Grisham or Jean Segura emerges as the bold-faced name for a day or a week, and baseball has a long history of those as well. October makes heroes."

Friday, October 21, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 21, 2022 -- "No Days Off"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"If the series does get extended, Aaron Boone may have to do something he almost never does. Boone was the first manager to stop using relievers on three straight days, not doing it once in the 2019 season. He did it once in 2020, three times in 2021 (twice with LOOGYs going limited stints), and not once this year. Until using Wandy Peralta three straight days last weekend, he had never done it in the playoffs. Can Boone go to the well and ask pitchers who have not been used aggressively to pitch on three straight days in a playoff setting? Whether he does, and how those pitchers respond, will be a big part of any Yankee comeback."

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 19, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Astros/Yankees Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"With so many non-hitters and so much good pitching on these rosters, we’re unlikely to see many long rallies. The Yankees led MLB by scoring 51% of their runs on homers; the Astros were fifth at 46%. Each team makes you hit the homer to beat them, too: The Yankees allowed 45% of their runs on homers, the Astros 40%. (MLB average was 39.8%.) The Yankees just played a five-game ALCS in which they got 28 hits and just 17 singles, a bit more than three a game. They are not going to have many rallies."

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 18, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Padres/Phillies Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"This is a baseball hipster series, a series for very online baseball fans, ones who might have been tired of the Dodgers and Braves and hungry for new blood. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are far more popular on Twitter than among normals. (I can say that, I’m part of the former group.) The specific builds of these teams speak to the success of going out and trying to win, certainly a conversation that happens more online than it does off."

Monday, October 17, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 17, 2022 -- "Five Teams Left"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The Guardians are a fantastic run-prevention team because their pitchers have stuff that is incredibly hard to hit and when it does get hit, their fielders turn balls in play into outs at a high rate. Win or lose tonight, that -- and not their average-minus offense -- should be the story."

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 15, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: Quick Turnaround"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"It took me a long time to come around to Snitker as a manager. The Braves won the World Series last year in part because he took the big mistake out of his bag. Yesterday, he found it again, and it cost him dearly."

 

Friday, October 14, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 14, 2022 -- "Division Series Catch-up"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"I’m as high on Alvarez, who hit a ridiculous Luis Castillo fastball -- 98, with run, off the outside corner -- for a two-run game-winning homer yesterday, as anyone. He’s still someone who is going to make an out 60% of the time, and 70% of the time you don’t walk him. If Servais is going to treat him like Kelly Leak, this series will be over quickly."

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 12, 2022 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The Braves didn’t lose because Rackley blew a call, even one that big. However, they were made more likely to lose because of it, and that’s what drives me crazy. Ranger Suarez didn’t do his job, missing inside with an important pitch. William Contreras did his job, taking that pitch for ball three. David Rackley inserted himself into that moment and changed the game. That’s not a human element, that’s just bad."

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: LAD/SDP Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The fascinating thing about the Dodgers’ hit and run prevention is the names behind it. Kenley Jansen left as a free agent. Walker Buehler got hurt. Another famous starter got suspended for two years. Craig Kimbrel pitched his way off the roster. The Dodgers are carrying 13 pitchers and most of them are anonymous. Of those 13, 11 have ERAs of 3.10 or lower. Only Dustin May, rostered for his raw talent rather than his performance in six appearances, is above 4.00."

Newsletter Excerpt, October 11, 2022 -- "Playoffs 2022: NYY/CLE Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $59.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"One Big Question: Will the running game matter? The Guardians were second in the AL in steals and attempts. The Yankees allowed fewer steal attempts than all but a few teams allowed steals. They allowed the fewest steals, 40, in the league, and threw out the highest percentage of attempted basestealers, 36%. The Guardians probably need to squeeze a few runs from this battle to win the series."

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, October 11, 2022: "Playoffs 2022: HOU/SEA Preview"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--

Of the four teams advancing from the weekend, the Mariners start their Division Series in the best shape. They’ll run Logan Gilbert out to the mound against the Astros this afternoon, easily the best pitcher any of the wild-card teams have left in their pocket. Gilbert didn’t hold the high note from early in the season, when he had a 0.40 ERA in April, but by taking the ball every fifth day -- he was one of just 21 starters to make 32 starts -- he established himself as a true #2 starter.

The Mariners’ pitching depth will come into play here. They traded for Luis Castillo, who can pitch Game Two on full rest. They signed Robbie Ray, who probably comes back for Game Three. If there’s a Game Four, that should be rookie George Kirby, who walked 22 batters in 25 starts as a rookie. That’s enviable rotation depth, even for a playoff team, and there are a lot of opponents, including the one they just beat, against which the Mariners would have a big edge on the mound.

Unfortunately, they drew one of the other ones. The Astros, like the Braves, won’t have any bad pitchers starting playoff games. They won’t even have any bad pitchers on their playoff roster. It’s possible they’ve banned bad pitchers from Harris County. The Astros allowed just 518 runs this year, the fewest of any AL team in the DH era. But for the stupid runner (they allowed 21 extra-inning runs), they might have become the first team in 50 years to allow fewer than 500 runs. (Another team this year can make the same claim.) Astros pitchers struck out 26% of the batters they faced, second in baseball. When those batters weren’t striking out, they were hitting for the second-lowest BABIP (.268) and lowest HR/FB (9.3%) in baseball.

When you look at pitching statistics for the last few seasons, and particularly this year, you see staffs seeming to get control of the things that, not so long ago, we did not think were controllable. The Astros’ pitchers miss bats, and across the staff they seem to have unlocked the key to generating weak contact: low average exit velocities, few barrels, the lowest barrel rate allowed in the game. They do this, mind you, while throwing more fastballs than all but a handful of teams -- which is supposed to be what good pitchers don’t do any more.

There are good reasons to ignore regular-season results when projecting playoff matchups. Rosters change, teams improve or get worse, there’s a lot of randomness in any set of baseball games. With that said, man, what the Astros did to the Mariners this season gets your attention: a .219/.303/.343 line in 19 games, just 3.4 runs allowed per contest. The Mariners have one of the weakest offenses left in the field, and it’s hard to see how they repeat the weekend’s offensive explosion against the Astros’ staff. They’re not getting Jesse Winker back; even in a lost year Winker’s ability to work counts and get on base would have had value in this series.

The Astros remain a good offensive team, sixth in the majors in wRC+, but not at the level of their recent squads. They’ve lost George Springer and Carlos Correa to free agency, Michael Brantley to the frailty of the human form, and have not found adequate replacements for any of them. It’s really a four-man lineup at this point; the Astros will have just eight players on their playoff roster who were average or better at the plate this year. That includes Jeremy Peña, who hasn’t been anything like that since April; Trey Mancini, who had a 77 wRC+ with the Astros; and David Hensley, an infield prospect with 34 MLB PA.

(I’ve had a great email exchange about Peña with a subscriber, who passed along this story about his mechanical adjustments of late. Peña is hitting .274/.307/.512 since making the change. I’d still bat him down in the order, but Dusty Baker seems committed to him in the #2 hole. I’d watch to see how many innings he ends in front of Yordan Alvarez.)

The Astros’ lineup isn’t quite as unbalanced as the Jays’ was, but just four teams had more right-on-right PAs. Unless the team recalls J.J. Matijevic -- who didn’t hit at all in sporadic playing time -- they’ll have just two left-handed batters on the roster: Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. (Those three are the only left-handed batters on the team’s 40-man roster.)

The Mariners’ path through this series is on the mound. As we discussed in advance of the wild-card series, they have a deep well of good right-handed relievers behind that strong rotation. Those guys should be able to eat in this series. They are one of the few teams who can go inning-for-inning with the Astros’ pitchers. Seattle can score quickly, tenth in the majors in homers, ninth in isolated power. There’s a path where they allow nine runs in four games and steal this thing.

One Big Question: Will we see the third postseason no-hitter this year? Justin Verlander left the game with a no-hitter intact three times in his last six starts. The Dodgers (1114) and Astros (1121) allowed the second- and third-fewest hits of any team since 1968, and two of the bottom-15 totals of all time.

One Big Stat: The Astros used 22 pitchers this season. Just two of them, Pedro Baez and Ronel Blanco, had ERAs of 4.00 or higher. It’s the first time since the 1991 Dodgers any team can say that, and just the fourth time a team in a DH league has turned the trick. Now, neither Baez nor Blanco pitched even seven innings for the Astros. If we draw the line at 10 IP, the Astros stand alone as the only team to play a full season in a DH league with no bad pitchers.

Even if I have real doubts about the Astros’ lineup, and a lot of faith in the Mariners’ ability to keep these games close, I’m just not sure the Astros will allow runs this week. Astros in four.