Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 31, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: Teams #10 - #6"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"I’m not sure any of it will matter. That’s how good this offense is. The Mets haven’t scored 800 runs since 2007, a lifetime in baseball terms, but this group probably has that number as its floor. The defense won’t keep the Mets from making the playoffs, but it is what keeps them from challenging the Braves atop the division."

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 30, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: Teams #16 - #11"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"We’ve been talking about Mike Trout and greatness relative to his age for so long that we didn’t notice he got older. He’ll play his age-29 season this year, turning 30 in August. The shape of his game is changing; he’s hit more homers than doubles for a while now, and a strikeout rate that he had lowered mid-career is ticking up again. He’s attempted just 15 steals since the start of the 2019 season, and his defensive numbers in center are slipping."

Newsletter Excerpt, March 30, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: For Entertainment Purposes Only"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Rangers under 66.5 wins. I have them at 59-103, and it’s probably easier to see them falling apart than making a run. They have a bad rotation, and their bullpen has been eviscerated by injuries this spring. I liked this one a lot coming in, and feel better having gotten an email from a pro bettor telling me he was on this one (at 67.5)."

Monday, March 29, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 29, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: Teams #23 - #17"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"As with the Reds, you can see a path where the Royals hit the high end of their range, the top teams in the division don’t, and they contend or even steal the division. I think the young pitching and improved OBP give the Royals more upside than downside, with the chance that the rotation will be bolstered in the second half by all these young arms."

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 28, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: Teams #30 - #24"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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--
 
"For 2021, it’s a transition. The Mariners have brought in some veteran ballast for the rotation, but they have to learn what they have in Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn and Logan Gilbert. Is Kyle Lewis an everyday center fielder or the fourth man when the three prospects get here? What the heck was that last year from Evan White? Within those questions is how you get to thinking of this as a surprise team. The Mariners have the highest upside of these seven teams, and enough 'yes' answers here can help them realize it. I don’t think they get there, but even as I write this graf, I’m wavering. Why not, indeed?"
 

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 25, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: Final Standings"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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Projected 2021 standings, postseason and awards picks:


Team        W-L   Pct  GB   RS   RA

Rays       96-66 .593  --  755  628
Yankees*   90-72 .556   6  844  758
Blue Jays  82-80 .506  14  822  798
Red Sox    80-82 .494  16  810  816   
Orioles   55-107 .340  39  663  936

White Sox  87-75 .537  --  783  726
Twins*     86-76 .531   1  820  775
Indians    82-80 .506   5  652  633
Royals     81-81 .500   6  692  701
Tigers    62-100 .383  25  672  855

Astros     86-76 .531  --  771  728
Athletics  85-77 .525   1  715  691
Angels     83-79 .512   3  806  777
Mariners   73-89 .451  13  731  815
Rangers   59-103 .364  27  661  885


AL MVP: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Vaughn, White Sox

Yankees win Coin Flip Round
Rays win ALDS over Yankees, 3-2
White Sox win ALDS over Astros, 3-0
Rays win ALCS over White Sox, 4-1


Team        W-L   Pct  GB   RS   RA

Braves     92-70 .568  --  828  728
Mets*      87-75 .537   5  812  745
Phillies   84-78 .519   8  810  771
Nationals  83-79 .512   9  801  784
Marlins    78-84 .481  14  664  698

Brewers    87-75 .537  --  782  732
Cardinals  83-79 .512   4  718  687
Cubs       83-79 .512   4  729  712
Reds       79-83 .488   8  718  731
Pirates   62-100 .383  25  670  875

Dodgers   113-49 .698  --  882  540
Padres*    92-70 .568  21  765  648
D’backs    78-84 .481  35  757  791
Rockies    72-90 .444  41  793  875
Giants     70-92 .432  43  707  834


NL MVP: Corey Seager, Dodgers
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola, Phillies
NL Rookie of the Year: Sixto Sanchez, Marlins

Mets win Coin Flip Round
Dodgers win NLDS over Mets, 3-0
Braves win NLDS over Brewers, 3-1
Dodgers win NLCS over Braves, 4-2

Dodgers win World Series over Rays, 4-2

 

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 24, 2021 -- "Season Preview 2021: The Revolution"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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--
 
"There are looming changes for 2022 as well, including the near-certainty of a universal DH and the likelihood of a larger playoff field. The next Collective Bargaining Agreement, to be negotiated this coming winter, could see the biggest changes to the business of the game since 1976, the start of free agency."

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, "Random Player Comments, 3/23/21"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Measuring Porcello against what he was supposed to be out of the draft, or what he was for one glorious summer in Boston, hurts him a bit. As we watch rotation battles shake out around the league, pitchers who are clearly worse than Porcello are claiming jobs. It’s strange that he’s out in the cold coming off a year in which he pitched as well as he did, ERA be damned. Julio Teheran has a job. Jon Lester has a job. Wade Miley has a job. I’d take Porcello over all of them, and many others."

Monday, March 22, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 22, 2021 -- "Conundrums, and the Rays"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The Rays ran a bottom-five payroll, reached the World Series, traded two of their top starting pitchers, brought in almost no talent...and are one of the best teams in baseball again. Are they a problem to be solved, or a team producing outcomes that fans of 20 other teams wish they could root for?"

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 18, 2021 -- "NL Lineup Notes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"[Dylan] Carlson hasn’t been batting up high, but he has been playing. At a time when many teams are still messing around, Shildt has used a starting outfield of Carlson in right, Tyler O’Neill in left and Harrison Bader in center in four straight games and six of seven. The Dexter Fowler trade cleared the way for this group to play, and at least for now, they’re all playing."
 
 

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 16, 2021 -- "Bobby Witt, Jr."

 This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 13, No. 16
March 16, 2021

The biggest player story this spring comes out of Surprise, Ariz., where Bobby Witt Jr. -- yes, this guy’s kid -- is making a run at the Royals’ roster despite almost no professional experience. Witt, the second pick in the 2019 draft, is hitting .333/.379/.667 in 29 Cactus League PAs, playing his expected good defense, and making jaws drop with his power.

The performance is a bit out of the blue. In his pro debut two years ago, in the complex-level Arizona League, Witt hit just .262/.317/.354 with one homer in 180 PA. Like all minor leaguers, Witt was sidelined by the pandemic in 2020, costing him a year of development, though he was at the Royals’ alternate site and garnered good reviews. (Keep in mind that 112.3% of prospects at alternate sites garnered good reviews. Alternate-site baseball was the greatest baseball ever played.) Coming into this spring, Witt was a mostly consensus top-20 prospect, with Keith Law the low ranker at #27.

I have a general principle that if it was silly to think a player should make the team on February 15, it’s just as silly on March 15. Witt falls comfortably into that rubric; he has never played outside the controlled environments of complex league and alternate sites, and while his spring performance has been impressive, it’s 29 plate appearances against miserable pitching. Baseball Reference calculates the quality of pitching and hitting faced by players in the spring. On average, Witt has faced below-Double-A quality pitching.

Digging into that a bit more, Witt has nine hits and two walks this spring off the following pitchers:

1B Kirk McCarty
1B Bennett Sousa
1B Andre Jackson
HR Tyler Rogers
1B Wandy Peralta
HR Yusmeiro Petit
1B Taylor Guerrieri
1B Josh Lindblom
HR Julio Urias

BB Tyler Johnson
BB Julio Urias


That’s not all dreck, of course; Julio Urias is a star, Yusmeiro Petit is a good reliever. On balance, though, Witt has done his damage against minor leaguers and fringe major leaguers. Taking his 2021 spring training performance at face value is a mistake, even if the ball he hit off Petit hasn’t landed yet.

Moreover, the Royals don’t need to elevate Witt. They have an established player, Adalberto Mondesi, at Witt’s position. Witt is probably a better defender than Mondesi is right now, but if he does make the Royals, he would be the one asked to defer and move to second base or third base. Witt could very well make that adjustment -- he has played some second this spring -- but it adds to the degree of difficulty of making the leap to the majors. I also don’t care for moving the long-term better player off his primary position in deference to a mediocre veteran. Bobby Witt Jr. is the Royals’ shortstop of the future, Adalberto Mondesi is a guy with a .304 career OBP.

The Royals also have a third baseman to whom they just gave a long-term contract in Hunter Dozier. They have two second basemen in Nicky Lopez and Hanser Alberto. Carlos Santana is locked in at first base, as is Jorge Soler at DH, limiting the ways in which Mike Matheny could get everyone playing time. This isn’t the Orioles, running out a Triple-A team and hoping no one notices. The Royals have a decent infield; Witt may or may not be better than the available options. Putting Witt on the roster on Opening Day might be a mistake, but putting him on the roster on Opening Day and then not playing him every day would definitely be one.

Complicating all this is the delay of the 2021 minor-league season. In a normal year, it would be easy to send Witt to ... whatever we call the Carolina League now ... and let him define his own path to the majors. You could even be aggressive and send him to Double-A. The Royals’ choice, however, is bringing him to Kansas City or leaving him in Arizona for another month, working out and playing in more exhibition games against subpar competition. That moves the needle a bit for me; remember, Witt was 19 the day he was drafted and turns 21 in June. That’s very old for a high-school draftee to have almost no pro experience. He needs real reps. Not in a complex, not in an alternate site, not in the Cactus League. He needs to be facing guys trying to get him out for real.

Still, when I consider Witt’s lack of pro experience, the pitchers he has hit this spring, the roster logjam he would create, and that he wouldn’t be playing shortstop, it all adds up to leaving him in Surprise for another month. There is really no risk to doing so, whereas having him start the year with the Royals is almost all downside. Witt isn’t Fernando Tatis Jr. two years ago, with a strong professional performance record and no one in front of him.

This also isn’t service-time manipulation; you get the sense the Royals want to promote Witt in part to continue staking out their position as an organization that does right by the players. Again, though, he’s not a player who is clearly qualified for the major leagues. He’s an inexperienced one having a few good weeks against spring-training pitchers.

Soon enough, Bobby Witt Jr. will be a Royal. It just shouldn’t be on Opening Day.
 

Monday, March 15, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 15, 2021 -- "MiLB Rules Changes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"As we’ll see below, I don’t agree with all of these changes, and in general the league seems too focused on baserunning and not enough on the pitcher/batter dynamic, which is the root cause of what people don’t like about modern baseball. However, the idea that MLB will use its newly-owned minor leagues in this way is a significant positive."

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 11, 2021 -- "AL Lineup Notes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"One thing I like to watch is who plays at home versus who plays on the road. Managers will usually spare their core guys the tougher bus rides of March. This is relevant in Indians camp, where Andres Gimenez is getting most of the home starts at shortstop (six starts, four at home), with Amed Rosario getting his playing time on the road (five starts, three on the road, including long trips from Goodyear to Mesa and Surprise)."
 
 

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 9, 2021 -- "Transition, and the Indians"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"What’s left is still a good team because the Indians are run by very smart people who have been well ahead of baseball’s trends. They’ve been leaders in maximizing the value of talent in their system, from Corey Kluber to Jose Ramirez to Shane Bieber, players who weren’t top-100 prospects coming through the minors but who became superstars in the majors. This year’s team won’t be bad, even after trading ten wins to the Mets, but it now slots in behind the White Sox and Twins, fighting for a wild card it’s unlikely to win."
 
 

Friday, March 5, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 5, 2021 -- "One Bad Week, and the Astros"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"I’ve listed 13 hitters so far. More of them had OBPs below .300 (seven) than above .300 last year. Yes, I’m still on Team 'let’s write everyone’s 2020 statistics in chalk and get the hose ready,' but that’s a daunting figure."
 
 

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 4, 2021 -- "Jackie Bradley Jr. and the Brewers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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--
 
"In signing Bradley Jr. on the heels of signing Kolten Wong, the Brewers have turned themselves into one of the best defensive teams in the NL. Remember, the best Brewers team of this run also featured the best Brewers defense of this run, the 2018 team whose .704 Defensive Efficiency Rating was second in the NL. That slipped to .691 in 2019 and .687 -- tenth in the circuit -- a year ago. This should once again be a strong defensive squad, with the primary question being how Keston Hiura adapts to playing first base."

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 2, 2021 -- "Very Bad Timing, and the Reds"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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--
 
"There aren’t very many teams in baseball who were hurt more by the fact or the timing of the pandemic. Starting in the 2018-19 offseason, they brought in Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas over the course of a year. The 2020 Reds were projected to have the highest payroll in franchise history, more than $150 million."

Monday, March 1, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, March 1, 2021 -- "Kim Ng and the Marlins"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"You can see the outlines of a build here, with the returns for the stars the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group inherited beginning to reach the majors. The catch is that they didn’t get enough back in those deals, have mostly been worked on the trade market, and their drafts have been disastrous for too long. Finally separating from Michael Hill was a long overdue move, and new GM Kim Ng brings decades of experience to her first decision-making role. It will be a year or two, at least, before it’s fair to judge her based on the standings."