Thursday, March 23, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 23, 2023 -- "Season Preview 2023: Conferences"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Beginning with Selig’s cashiering of his preceding commissioner, Vincent, the leagues have been ground to dust. They no longer exist other than as labels atop the standings and All-Star uniforms. The execrable construct 'the MLB' spreads because for fans -- hell, for media -- under the age of 40, there’s no real memory of 'the AL' and 'the NL' as going concerns. There’s just one league with two conferences."

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 22, 2023 -- "Getting Lucky"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 15, No. 18
March 22, 2023

It doesn’t always work out this way, of course. Not in baseball. You build something like the World Baseball Classic, you hope for it, but you can’t make it happen.

The first one, back in 2006? It ended with the tying run nowhere near the scene, Akinori Otsuka whiffing Yuli Gurriel to win it all for Japan. Two players who would have nice MLB careers, to be sure, but hardly the stuff of legends. In 2009, you had Yu Darvish taking out Keun-Woo Jung to lock it up for Japan, again. In ’13, it was Fernando Rodney against Luis Figueroa. Good ballplayers all, but there’s a reason this thing was drifting from ESPN to MLB Network over time.

That’s baseball, of course. Last year’s World Series, that wasn’t bad, Ryan Pressly retiring the heart of the Phillies’ order to win it for the Astros, getting Bryce Harper along the way. In 2021, though, it was Tyler Matzek wiping up a 7-0 Braves win against, hey, that man again, Yuli Gurriel. In baseball, the game chooses the players, not the other way around.

In football, boy, it’s not like that. The last Super Bowl had the greatest player in the game, Pat Mahomes, orchestrating a game-winning drive as the clock ticked down in a tied contest. The one before that saw a star, Matthew Stafford, leading the Rams down the field in a fourth-quarter drive that flipped the game. The Rams’ win was sealed when perhaps the league’s best defender, Aaron Donald, sacked the Bengals’ quarterback on fourth down.

In the NBA, the stars always run the show. Last summer, in the clinching game of the NBA Finals, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 41 of the Warriors’ 92 shots, and threw in nine assists, too. For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum took more than half of the team’s 80 shots between them in a losing effort. The end of almost any important basketball game, certainly any championship game, is about the superstars.

Baseball doesn’t allow for that. Sometimes it’s Chris Sale mowing down Manny Machado to bring on the dogpile, but more often it’s Mike Montgomery against Michael Martinez, or Jason Motte finishing off David Murphy, or Otis Nixon trying to bunt his way on against Mike Timlin.

Sometimes, though...sometimes you get lucky. Sometimes the end of a big international tournament comes down to a one-run lead with one out left, and a matchup between the greatest player ever and the one coming to take that crown from him.

That’s what we got last night at the end of the 2023 WBC, Mike Trout against Shohei Ohtani, teammates most of the time, thrown together in opposition with two outs, nobody on, Japan holding a 3-2 lead in the title game, looking for their third win in five WBCs. The U.S., for its part, was trying to join Japan as the second team to win multiple WBCs, and match Japan’s record of winning two in a row.

Shohei Ohtani, mind you, had already put in a day, working a walk and beating out an infield single, a ball he hit at 114 mph, the second-hardest hit ball of the game. Now he was on the mound, nine pitches deep, a walk and a groundball double play behind him. Ohtani, coming off two of the most incredible seasons in baseball history, establishing himself as one of the best hitters and best pitchers in the sport, something I thought impossible, now had a chance to end the biggest game he’d played since leaving NPB in 2017.

He started with a breaking ball, low, never a strike, a chase pitch that Mike Trout is way too good to chase. Down 1-0 to the tying run, Ohtani came back with...I don’t know how “country hardball” translates, but this was it, 100 mph middle-middle, hit it if you can see it. Trout couldn’t, 1-1.

With some room to maneuver now, Ohtani went back off the plate, just off the outer edge, with another 100-mph fastball with some cut to it. Trout, once again, refused to chase. 2-1. Watching, the dominant emotion was gratitude. A homer on the first pitch, or a pop-up to third on the second, would have felt anticlimactic. I was standing by now, wanting this to last like cold lemonade on a summer day, like a great second date, like your kid’s childhood.

There are days when it seems like we’ve forgotten Mike Trout, his greatness, fragile and therefore frustrating, now existing in the shadow of Superman. Plenty of hitters, though, would have been long gone after these three pitches, swinging over the breaking ball and behind that 1-1 heater. Trout, though, had the count in his favor, had a bat in his hands, had the home-country advantage.

Ohtani? He had a hundo more, again fired over the middle of the plate, a couple inches higher than the first one. Mighty Casey swung through it, not all that close to doing damage, and was down to his last strike. On a night when the pitchers of Samurai Japan had thrown enough splitters to bring Roger Craig back to life, [Ed. note: The legendary pitching coach and manager is very much alive. I apologize.--JSS] their win was coming down to a guy throwing fastballs in the happy zone and living to tell the tale.

Ohtani reared back now, and for the first time, cracked a little. He overthrew, pulling a fastball down and away, sending it to the backstop at a snappy 102 mph.

Three and two.

Two outs.

Top of the ninth.

3-2 ballgame.

The greatest ever.

Maybe the next greatest ever.

Ohtani made Trout choose. Having been beaten twice with fastballs middle-middle, Trout had every reason to think the payoff pitch would be a third. He was geared up for one, his bat carving an arc through the middle of the strike zone, but the ball wasn’t there. It was moving away from his bat, towards the outside corner, at a mere 87 mph. The decision to throw a slider here, that’s one we can discuss.

The slider Ohtani threw, though, ends that discussion. Tight, late break, on the black. We don’t know for sure who invented the slider, a pitch that sort of emerged from a primordial soup of breaking balls. We do know that 80 years of sliders all led to this one, aimed down the middle and then cornering like something out of “The Fast and the Furious.” Strike three. Game, silks.

You invent the WBC, and then you wait 17 years for a moment like we got last night. You watch baseball, and you wait 45 years for a moment like we got last night.

Classic, indeed.
 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 21, 2023 -- "Rays, and the Guardians"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"What connects these two teams is that they complicate the modern criticism of teams for not spending money. Spending money on players isn’t an end in itself, but a means to build a winner. The Rays and Guardians have run low payrolls while routinely winning. Over the last ten years, the Guardians have the fourth-best record in baseball, the Rays the seventh-best. Those ranks are second and fifth in the AL alone. Between them, they’ve accounted for 11 playoff berths in those ten seasons, and the AL hasn’t contested a postseason without at least one of them since 2015."

Monday, March 20, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 20, 2023 -- "Mariners, and the Brewers"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The Mariners didn’t always do it right, but they always tried to do it right. Their process paid off last year in a trip to the Division Series, and it could well pay off again with an even deeper run in 2023."

Friday, March 17, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 17, 2023 -- "Mailbag"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"The player who will fare the best in MVP/Cy Young voting and did not get a single vote in 2022 is....

(I would take Wander Franco or Bobby Witt Jr.)

-- Angelo G.


Great question. Juan Soto is the obvious answer, but Witt and Franco are in the mix. Gerrit Cole. Jacob deGrom. Corey Seager. Luis Robert. Corbin Carroll, to be really spicy.

--J."

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 15, 2023 -- "The Coming War"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"There are a few ways this could go. It could be 1994, where teams agree on a deal in which large-revenue teams will rescue small-revenue ones, so long as they can all get the players to pay for it through restrictions on the market. I am not sure how that would end up, but I am certain we’d lose a season finding out."

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 14, 2023 -- "Jim Crane and the Astros"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The task of succeeding Click, and before him Jeff Luhnow, now falls to a different sort of executive. Dana Brown, 57, has had a 30-year career in baseball taking him from the playing field to coaching and scouting, then on up through a variety of executive roles with the Nationals, Blue Jays, and Braves."

Monday, March 13, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 13, 2023 -- "Liberty Media and the Braves"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"I may be the low man on the Sean Murphy trade, mostly because I think William Contreras will be a star, maybe better than Murphy over the next few years. At least for 2023, Murphy’s defensive skills, including framing, should make him an upgrade on the younger of the Contrerii."

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 11, 2023 -- "Carlos Rodon and the Yankees"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Bad luck? Bad process? Bad, for sure. The Yankees have made the playoffs the last few years by being a run-prevention team, and they’re down four run preventers with less than three weeks to Opening Day"

Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 21, 2017 -- "The WBC"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
I’m writing this at about 1:45 a.m. in Yonkers. It’s also 1:45 a.m. in Puerto Rico and 1:45 a.m. in Curacao. It’s 6:45 a.m. in the Netherlands proper.

So about that “the World Baseball Classic is a marketing event” take…

The WBC semifinal last night showed off the Classic’s ineffable mix of exciting, fun baseball and facepalm-inspiring nonsense. The game between Puerto Rico and the Netherlands kicked off at 9 p.m. ET, which is parallel to an NBA Finals game and the NCAA basketball championship, more or less, and ran well past midnight on the East Coast. There’s probably no way to start it earlier, given the location; it’s hard enough to get Los Angelenos to Dodger Stadium for 7 p.m. starts with Clayton Kershaw on the mound; asking them to get to the yard by 6 p.m. for Jorge Lopez and Rick van den Hurk is…aspirational. About 25,000 tickets were sold, which strikes me as pretty good for a baseball game in March. It falls short of what you’d hope for in a global championship semifinal.

The game was a hoot, the kind of sloppy-but-watchable baseball we get every four years in this event. Wladimir Balentien and Carlos Correa hit booming homers, Yadier Molina made a gorgeous throw to catch Jurickson Profar napping, there were bang-bang plays at third and home, and what felt like a constant stream of baserunners stranded (19 in total, as it turned out). It ended, unfortunately, with the extra-innings gimmick taking front and center. The international-baseball rules that govern the WBC dictate that starting in the 11th inning, all half-innings begin with runners placed on first and second. Think penalty kicks, but if the goalie had to face two at once. It’s a bad idea that might work when you’re running some U21 event in East Wherethehell, but turns the semifinal of what is supposed to be a great event into a carnival act. The Netherlands stranded their runners, Puerto Rico scored, and that was that. “Anticlimactic” doesn’t begin to describe the moment for anyone not invested in a Puerto Rico victory. At the very, very least, this rule needs to be suspended for the elimination rounds.

Still, it happened at 1:30 a.m., and only the diehards were watching. Same for the amazing, game-saving Adam Jones catch on Saturday night, which happened at about 12:15 a.m., when only the diehards were watching. The World Baseball Classic, which should be minting new baseball fans, is all but invisible to them, happening on a cable network no one gets at times casual fans are sleeping, or watching basketball, or doing what people do late on a Saturday night. It’s been a joy for the people in my Twitter feed, but just a line on the ticker the next morning for the 99.99% of people outside that world. The WBC has basically become great at fan service, at pandering to the base, without doing a damned thing to move beyond that base.

There’s an attitude you face when you criticize the WBC that you should, and I’m only lightly paraphrasing here, “shut up and enjoy it.” The core principle of good journalism, to be sure. There are people deeply invested in the success of the event, and there are people just giddy to be watching moderately meaningful baseball in March. Those groups aren’t wrong; it’s just that you can’t watch the WBC and not be struck by the lost opportunity to do it better. That catch by Adam Jones, which preserved a two-run lead over the United States’ top rival in baseball, in which he robbed a teammate, in which he reached three rows into the stands, should have been seen by tens of millions of people. It should have had the stage for days. Jones should have been on with Jimmy Fallon to talk about it.

Here’s how that can happen.

Most of the WBC’s problems come down to scheduling. You can’t get full buy-in from all the best players because it interferes with preparations for the MLB season. You can’t turn the pitchers loose because so many games occur before they’re ready for significant workloads. You can’t get eyeballs in the U.S. because casual fans aren’t thinking about baseball yet -- especially during the run-up to, and first weekend of, the NCAA basketball tournament. That event sucks up all the air among casual sports fans, non-sports fans and the media that chases both. Rick van den Hurk can’t compete with that.

Instead of shoehorning the entire tournament in prior to the season, take the WBC and split it up into two parts. The first would begin roughly ten days before MLB Opening Day, or this year, March 23. Take your 16 teams and play the first round of the tournament as currently structured: eight teams playing down to four in Asia, eight playing down to four in North America. That round usually takes three days’ worth of games, with some room on either side for travel and practice time. The later start and smaller time commitment should make it easier to get the best players on board. You’ll never have full participation -- some guys will be hurting, some will prefer the days off -- but 15 of the 25 best players in baseball passed on this year’s WBC, which undercuts the event before a pitch is even thrown. You’ll also have pitchers prepared to go 75-90 pitches, adding credibility to the competition and, frankly, leveling the playing field for countries who lack the pitching depth the U.S. has.

The eight teams who advance from this round would play the quarterfinals, semis and finals in July. In World Baseball Classic years, MLB would forego an All-Star Game and replace it with this weeklong event, one that would unquestionably be more competitive than the modern All-Star Game. It would necessitate stretching the midseason break by four to five days -- just using the current scheduling, you would need six game days to play it out, with at least three travel days, maybe four. I don’t want to minimize the change here; you’d need buy-in from the leagues in Japan and Korea, whose players would face a greater travel burden, and you’d be chewing up close to a week -- including a weekend -- of prime summer real estate both at the ballparks and on television.

However, what you would get is the stage to yourself. One reason why the All-Star Game persists, despite being a shadow of itself as a competitive event, is where it falls on the calendar. There’s nothing else going on in sports, so people turn to Fox on a Tuesday night and the highlight shows run the video and the talk shows yammer about it. Instead of the gristle and bone of an All-Star Game, though, think about that summer week with the red meat of a true world championship of baseball, not with Tanner Roark and Tomoyuji Sagano, but with Clayton Kershaw and Masahiro Tanaka. Not in half-filled ballparks in March, but in Camden Yards and AT&T Park in the summer. Picture the semis and finals at Wrigley Field or Fenway Park.

Fairly or not, picture them on Fox or ABC or ESPN. With respect to the good things MLB Network does, in our modern media world, the importance of an event is proportionate to the caliber of its distribution channel. If you’re going to use the WBC to show off baseball at its best, you can’t do it late at night on a channel not everyone gets. (I’d add that a number of people have told me, through Twitter, that WBC games have been blacked out on MLBN internationally.) Say what you want about ESPN, but it’s on in airports and bars and barber shops all over the country, the set-it-and-forget-it option for places that just want some sports on in the background. If you’re going to get people to fall into the WBC, you have to provide a big enough hole. Moving the WBC to July would make it far more likely that ESPN (and its distribution partner ABC) and Fox would be involved, growing the potential audience and, most importantly, the event’s reach with casual fans. If you know how to find MLB Network, baseball already has you. It needs the other people.

There’s a cost here. Every four years, you’ll have to work around the Classic. Whether that means lengthening a season already too long by a week on either end, or scheduling doubleheaders, or squeezing out some off days, or even playing a shorter schedule, I don’t know. That’s a problem that can be solved, however. The World Baseball Classic, right now, is a half-measure, and most of its problems can be traced to it being played in March. You’re not getting the best players, you’re not getting the biggest audience, in March. By moving half the event into the summer, you can address those problems and start the Classic on its way to becoming what MLB wants it to be: baseball’s World Cup.
 
 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 7, 2023 -- "Michael Conforto and the Giants"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"The Giants had a terrible offseason, and while they have some prospects coming, they’ve now drifted behind the pool of NL wild-card contenders."

Monday, March 6, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 6, 2023 -- "Andrew Pain...whoops...and the Phillies"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Adding Turner to the top of this lineup is a little ridiculous. Kyle Schwarber, miscast as a leadoff man, now gets to bat second, a perfect spot for him. The top three spots in this lineup match up with almost any team in baseball, and that’s even without Harper. With Stott and Marsh at the bottom, there’s a chance the Phillies will have average hitters or better at all nine lineup spots."

 

Friday, March 3, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 3, 2023 -- "The Disappearing Pitching Phenom"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Andrew Painter turns 20 next month. No pitcher 20 years old or younger has thrown 100 innings in the majors since Fernandez threw 172 in 2013. (Fernandez tore his UCL in 2014 and would throw just 116 innings over the next two seasons.) In the nine seasons since then, pitchers 20 and younger have thrown a total of 341 innings in the majors, and pitchers 20 and younger have made a total of 35 starts in the majors. "
 
 

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, March 1, 2023 -- "Gavin Lux and the Dodgers"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"Gavin Lux was, perhaps accidentally, the linchpin of the 2023 roster, and losing him exposes the Dodgers. They won’t hit as well, they won’t be as balanced, they won’t be as deep."
 

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 28, 2023 -- "Manny Machado and the Padres"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--
 
"For all the attention on the huge contracts and the trades for the likes of Juan Soto, the Padres are a run-prevention team. They have a very deep pitching staff with a strong rotation, a shutdown bullpen, and they go 16 or 17 deep in credible major-league pitchers."

Monday, February 27, 2023

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, February 27, 2023 -- "The New Rules: Epilogue"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 

One of the challenges in looking at the 2023 season is that MLB announced a series of changes at once, which will make it harder to suss out the impact of any one change. As I wrote yesterday, the larger bases and the pickoff restrictions work in tandem to affect basestealing. The restrictions on defensive positioning should add a thousand or more singles, which makes stealing second more valuable. Those same restrictions should make turning double plays a bit easier, again giving teams reason to steal. If the pitch clock hampers the effectiveness of pitchers, that will add baserunners and, presumably, more singles and stolen base opportunities.

I don’t know that any of these changes, by themselves, is major. I can, though, without working too hard, tell a story that is a win for MLB: batting averages up, steals up, movement up, run scoring up. Everyone will fundamentally be the same players they were a year ago, but by hamstringing defenses and pitchers, the outcomes will be different. If MLB rolls the clock back to 2012 -- .255 batting average, more hits than strikeouts, 3200 stolen bases -- they’ll declare victory and get the hell out.

That’s a lot to ask with the same set of players. The hitters are all going to be trying to hit the ball hard and up, because that’s where the runs are. They will still be trading off contact to hit those hard line drives and fly balls. Pitchers, in turn, will still be trying to miss bats and, at least for one more season, exploiting umpires’ reliance on guesswork to get strikes on pitches outside the zone. They’ll be going at maximum effort because that’s how they have been trained. They’ll be returning from Driveline with three extra ticks on their fastball, and using Trackman and Rapsodo to craft ever more evil breaking stuff.

The 2023 changes are baseball trying to do everything in its power to change the game without without addressing the main issue: Pitchers are witches. We’re going to learn this year whether fiddling around the edges of the game is enough to even things out.

Hovering over all of this is the baseball. We had a rabbit ball in 2019, then perhaps a different one that postseason. We had two baseballs with different characteristics in play in 2021. We had at least two, maybe three, in use in 2022. It’s an article of faith to some that MLB will use a livelier ball in 2023 in an effort to juice offense and make it seem as if the changes are having an effect. The league has lost all credibility on the matter, so in addition to watching how gameplay changes in 2023, we’ll need to see how the performance of the baseball interacts with the rules changes.

Stepping back, there are three things I am going to be focused on once the season begins. Unlike many, I don’t think exhibition games will provide actionable information, so this experiment starts March 30.

1. Will pitchers stay healthy? I don’t care about violations and game times and soul-reading fan engagement from the press box. The pitch clock will live or die on whether MLB pitchers working at max effort to get MLB batters out and win MLB games can pitch at the required pace and stay upright. What happens when relievers start going three days out of four, or starters begin throwing 30-pitch innings? I won’t pretend to know the answer to that, beyond a general, “When pitchers pitch tired, they are more likely to get hurt.” It’s the single biggest factor in the future of the pitch clock.

That, by the way, is the last thing I’ll say about the pitch clock for a while. It’s clearly a fetish for some. Me, I don’t think anything matters until the games do.

2. How many hits are coming back? There were just shy of 28,000 singles in 2012, and 25,877 last year. (That was up from 2021’s floor of 25,006.) The rules restricting defensive positioning create an entitlement zone in short right field that should give back maybe half of those to left-handed batters. Singles are still going to be rare relative to the game’s history, but rolling their rate back to that of 2017-18 -- mid-26,000s -- could push the league batting average back over .250. Where the total number of singles fall in that range -- 25,000 to 28,000 -- will determine the success of the shift ban.

3. Can MLB thread the needle on stolen bases? The bases are less than five inches closer to each other, and pitchers can still make two pickoff throws per plate appearance, and pitcher/catcher combinations are still faster than ever at moving the ball from the mound to second base. Still, the combination of bigger bases and pickoff limits in the minors had a large effect. From Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com:

In 2022, with the mound disengagement limits, pitch timer and bigger bases imposed across the full-season Minor Leagues, the uptick in action on the basepaths continued:

Year SBA/G SB%


2022 2.81 78.0
2021 2.52 75.7
2019 2.23 68.2


MLB would like to generate more stolen bases, as they see that as something the fans want. Stolen bases are exciting when there’s drama as to whether the baserunner will beat the throw to the bag. Once we close in on an 80% success rate, that drama diminishes. There is a fine line between adding excitement and creating automatic doubles. The changes to the basestealing dynamic are the most interesting ones, because the range of possible outcomes is wide.

I can’t think of a parallel in the game’s history for what we’re seeing in 2023. There have been changes -- to the baseball, the strike zone, to the balk rule, to which players get to bat -- but never so many, all at once, out in the open. I disagree with some of the moves, not just on their merits but because it’s all a means of avoiding the real problem, the one between the mound and home plate. It’s my hope that whatever happens this year, success or failure, this willingness to change will be put to better use in years to come.

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 26, 2023 -- "The New Rules: Basestealing"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"As with the pitch clock and limiting pickoffs, making the bases bigger is a change made for one reason -- to reduce injuries on plays around the bag -- with the potential for a secondary effect that increases basestealing. Moving first and second base just a little closer together could change the timing math that has been disrupted by increased velocity over the last 40 years, leveling the battle between the baserunner and the defense."

Saturday, February 25, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 25, 2023 -- "The New Rules: The Pitch Clock"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"My prediction is that the average nine-inning game will run 2:56 this year, the pitch clock shaving seven minutes off the average year over year, rather than 20 or so in the minors."
 
 

 

Friday, February 24, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 24, 2023 -- "The New Rules: Defensive Positioning"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"The fig leaf is that the new rule will bring athleticism back to the game by forcing infielders to run more. I don’t think that will be the case. I watch as much baseball as any three people you know, and I didn’t notice a dearth of highlight plays, a struggle for MLBN or ESPN to fill sizzle reels, in the shift era."

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 22, 2023 -- "LABR Report"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"13. Bo Bichette

...who I thought might not be there for me at 1.13. This is a bet on Bichette being a durable five-category star at shortstop after two seasons in which he missed just six games total, averaged a .294 BA with 106 runs, 98 RBI, 26 homers and 19 steals. He’ll be 25 in 2023, and the Blue Jays have made changes to the fences at Rogers Centre that should make it even more hitter-friendly. I was very, very happy to get him here."

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 21, 2023 -- "LABR Day"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"Note that in this specific format -- 32 players, no free agents or trading, small lineups each week picked retroactively by the computer to give you your best score -- certain traits have more value, like positional flexibility. I do like Varsho and MJ Melendez a lot, but maybe not as much in other formats."

Monday, February 20, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 20, 2023 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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Who would be a good non-traditional manager hire for an MLB team in 2023? Are there any candidates that come to mind?

-- Mike C.


This is where baseball is really missing a bit. “Baseball player exceptionalism,” Charlie Pierce once called it, this idea that baseball players are some special breed of human being. NFL and NBA teams are coached, often very well, by people who didn’t play the game. There’s just so much resistance in MLB to the idea that a non-player could do the job; it's a non-starter. It was a big deal when teams started hiring guys who hadn’t even played in the majors. I don’t think we have a MLB version of Gregg Popovich or Bill Belichick on the horizon.

Who would be the guy? I truly don’t know. Maybe some stat guy who has spent a while liaising with the team, has some athleticism, played in college. It’s just so hard for me to imagine it. The best chance is probably a woman, to be honest. The Rachel Balkovec path.

--J.
 
 

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 15, 2023 -- "Major League 4, and the A's"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The A’s playing 162 games is merely what has to happen to keep the franchise going until Fisher gets the cash cow of his dreams. It’s a miserable situation. A sport with real leadership would do more than just point to Las Vegas with one hand while pointing a gun at the city of Oakland with the other. Alas, baseball hasn’t had that since Walter O’Malley died."

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 14, 2023 -- "Extra Innings"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"In the online era, long games have helped build the baseball community. How many of you kept ice cream in the freezer to celebrate #weirdbaseball with Kevin Goldstein and friends? How many of you hear 'Let’s Go Pirates!' and twitch a little bit? Remember when Chris Davis and Darnell McDonald faced off on a May afternoon at Fenway Park, when position players pitching was still rare enough to be fun?"

Monday, February 13, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 13, 2023 -- "Andrew Chafin and the Diamondbacks"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The Diamondbacks have been bringing forward a crop of hitter prospects that should form the core of a contender through the middle of the 2020s. Corbin Carroll is already here, and with recent first-round picks Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones he gives the Diamondbacks three of the top 20 prospects in baseball. Gabriel Moreno, acquired from the Blue Jays in December, would make it four if not for barely exhausting his rookie eligibility last year. Throw in a group of pitchers who rate a bit below the hitters, and the Diamondbacks are poised to be young and good for a while."

Super Hold

 I guess once a year now I write about football. The last time was a little more than a year ago, when the Chargers lost to the Raiders and were eliminated from the playoffs in a strange game-ending sequence that came to be blamed on coach Brandon Staley and the boogeyman “analytics,” when the real culprit was bad run defense.

Super Bowl 57 didn’t have a moment like that. In fact, the Eagles’ success on fourth downs meant that the issue of analytical thinking in football never really came up. It’s only when a team doesn’t convert a fourth down that the topic becomes fodder for discussion.

No, what we had at the end of this game was history unlike the kind anyone had ever seen before. The Eagles had played a near-perfect game for 59 minutes, running up a 35-0 lead on the Chiefs, who were overmatched in all phases of the game. The Chiefs were driving, having gotten into the red zone, when on third down, Eagles defensive back James Bradberry tugged Juju Smith-Schuster’s jersey as the receiver went into his break, preventing Smith-Schuster from getting into his route. As Patrick Mahomes’s pass landed incomplete in the end zone, referee Carl Cheffers threw his flag and called defensive holding, giving the Chiefs a new set of downs with 1:50 to play and the Eagles down to one time out. After a series of kneeldowns, Harrison Butker came on and kicked a 38-point field goal to give the Chiefs a 38-35 lead with just seconds to play. The penalty call by Cheffers opened the door to the most important kick in football history, and could rightly be said to have cost the Eagles the game.

That’s not quite how it happened, but you would be excused if you thought so given the reaction to that play. At the point of the penalty, the Chiefs had scored 35 points, including six on a fumble recovered for a touchdown and six more set up by a punt return inside the ten-yard line. In the second half, the Chiefs had had three possessions and scored three touchdowns prior to this one. Just seconds prior, the Eagles had let the gimpy Mahomes run 26 yards straight up the middle of the field to set up the final sequence.

So no, whatever you think of the call itself, it most definitely did not cost the Eagles the game. They’d allowed 35 points, a defensive touchdown, a massive special teams play, and three straight touchdown drives. They’d blown a 13-point second-half lead. Any number of plays in the first 97% of the contest “cost them the game” more than a holding penalty did.

Where this conversation goes awry is in making the referee the central actor. The central actor was James Bradberry, who grabbed Smith-Schuster’s jersey to prevent Smith-Schuster from beating him off the line. It looked like a hold on the screen; I’d argue that the most effective way to draw a defensive holding penalty is to pull the receiver’s jersey away from his body, which is exactly what Bradberry did. After the game, Bradberry said, “It was a holding. I tugged his jersey. I was hoping they would let it slide.” They did not.

It looked like a hold in the moment. The referee made a quick and decisive call. The offending player concedes he held. If we put instances of defensive holding on a scale of 1-10, this wasn’t a 1 and it wasn’t a 10. You might see a 2 where I see a 5. At first I thought it was a bad call, but the more I looked at it, the pull on the jersey just makes it easy. It interrupted Smith-Schuster’s route pretty severely. It was defensive holding de jure and de facto.

There’s an idea sports fans hold that players, not referees, should decide games, that officials should avoid making calls in high-leverage situations. It’s silly, because officials affect the game constantly throughout the contest. This idea is based on the fallacy that calling violations is the only way officials can affect the game. Officials -- hockey fans, where you at? -- can also impact a game by not calling fouls in key moments. (That doesn’t make people happy, either.) To say that Cheffers should not have called the hold is to say that he should have influenced the game, just in a way more palatable to everyone not a Chiefs fan. That’s the last thing I want from officials; I want them calling what’s in front of them without respect to the game state. They’re arbiters, not dramatists. I don’t want them making or not making calls to produce a better TV show.

The call gave the Chiefs a full set of downs inside the ten, and with the Eagles down to one timeout, allowed the Chiefs to all but run out the clock and kick a game-winning field goal. To their credit, the Eagles tried to let Jerick McKinnon walk into the end zone with about 1:40 left, which would have left them time for a tying drive. McKinnon slid down at the one-yard line to foil the strategy and set up the final sequence. The penalty changed the endgame, but 1) it didn’t decide the game and 2) not calling the penalty would have been just as impactful.

MLB is trying to fix its umpiring, if a bit too slowly for my tastes. Baseball, though, is an easier sport to officiate using technology. The calls are binary -- did the foot hit the bag before the ball hit the glove? The worst part of baseball umpiring, pitch calling, may soon give way to technology that may not be perfect but is better, certainly better for identifying the location in an imaginary box of an object moving at 95 mph and turning unpredictably. You can fix baseball officiating with automation.

I’m not sure that solution is out there for the NFL, where the decisions are judgment calls. I’m not the first person to observe that offensive holding occurs on far more plays than those on which it is called. Defensive pass interference is entirely judgment, and offensive pass interference seems to be called at random, like a DUI check on the highway, just to keep players honest. The job of an NFL referee may well exceed the ability of human eyes, even eight pairs, to do it, but unlike baseball, the shape of football just won’t lend itself to a technological solution. We’re a long way from Ref-GPT.

Whereas as a baseball fan I have demanded better because I believe better is out there, I don’t know that that is the case in the NFL. There were any number of judgment calls last night, some of which went to the replay system, and none of which any three fans agreed upon. There was a bang-bang “offsides or false start” call on the Eagles’ first drive that gave the Eagles a first down and seemed like a coin flip. The Eagles seemed to wait too long to get a play off on a number of occasions. Some of these you could handle with expanded replay, a solution no one wants, but most of them are going to come down to judgment in a way “safe or out” doesn’t. Football has too many gray areas. The NFL allowed coaches to challenge pass interference calls a couple of years ago; it was a mess and they don’t do that any more.

I think Cheffers made the right call. Even if you don’t, though, you have to admit there’s no binary here, only a range, and that within that range there is room for disagreement. MLB umpiring can be improved. NFL refereeing may just have to be accepted.


Friday, February 10, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 10, 2023 -- "Andrew Benintendi and the White Sox"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"The White Sox have done nothing to bolster that depth despite a payroll one star short of the first tax threshold and a market that, when the winter started, was filled with players who could help them. The Sox swapped out Jose Abreu, who went to the Astros in free agency, for Andrew Benintendi. That is a downgrade offensively but a big upgrade defensively, getting Andrew Vaughn out of the outfield and over to first base."

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, February 8, 2023 -- "Leftovers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 
"Wacha is a hard player to sign because he’s not part of the “great or unavailable” group, and he’s also not an innings guy -- almost exactly 125 innings in each of the last three full seasons. What are you really buying, especially given he was meh -- 4.11 ERA, 4.36 FIP -- after the shoulder injury?"

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, May 31, 2022 -- "The Double-Bank-Shot Theory"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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--
 

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 14, No. 43
May 31, 2022

You’ve talked a lot about how batters have sold out for the long ball as their only defense against the warlocks on the mound. While I agree that the chicanery with the baseballs is beyond dumb, do you think there’s a possible long game here where batters have to revert more to line drives than fly balls? It would obviously be a 20-year or so cycle but is there any merit to coupling deader balls with the other changes you propose (move the mound back, etc.) to eventually get to a more aesthetically pleasing style of play? 

--Brandon Z.

Readers send me this question more than any other, whether it’s to my inbox or on Slack or in my Twitter feed. What I have dubbed the “double-bank-shot theory” is an incredibly popular one among baseball fans, as well as some writers and analysts.

By putting a baseball in play that flies less well, MLB has reduced the value of fly balls. In the first two months of 2019, batters hit .300 with a .954 slugging on fly balls, as classified by Baseball Reference. So far in 2022, batters are hitting .254 with a .767 slugging on fly balls. It’s not a classification problem -- the number of plate appearances in both data sets is nearly identical. There have been 500 fewer homers hit on fly balls in roughly the same number of plate appearances ending in a fly ball.

The double-bank-shot theory proposes that by making fly balls less valuable, MLB will dissuade hitters from hitting the ball up and far, and instead encourage them to hit in a more contact-oriented style that produces more balls in play and fewer strikeouts. The new ball has also reduced the value of line drives, but not by nearly as much: Over the same periods as discussed above, batting average on line drives is the same, although slugging has dropped by 60 points. To the extent the double-bank-shot theory has merit, it’s in these numbers. Line drives are much more valuable, relative to fly balls, than they were three years ago.

Unfortunately, that’s the only point in its favor. 

Let’s start from first principles. Batters have been trying to hit the ball hard and far since the game was called “town ball” and played for recreation, mostly by kids. The idea that hitters just discovered, maybe six years ago, the value of hitting the ball over everybody is silly. You can’t read three pages of baseball history without coming across the phrase “mighty wallop.” We’ve been celebrating power hitters since being one meant swinging a log at a ball of wet socks held together by wishes.

We have, of course, put numbers to the idea in recent years. Early statheads quantified the value of slugging. Later ones showed that the most valuable thing a player can do is pull a fly ball. Batters aren’t trying to maximize contact rate or batting average, they’re trying to maximize the number of runs their team scores. They do this by being judicious about when to swing and then trying to hit the ball hard and far when they do.

In today’s baseball, there is already a massive incentive for hitters to try something different. Data-driven defensive positioning -- your people call it “the shift” -- has a built-in reward for contact hitting and spray hitting. Most hitters today...this is why I don’t like calling it a “shift”...bat against a defense aligned to field batted balls to the pull side. Rangers prospect Josh Smith made his MLB debut last night, and in the lefty batter’s first career plate appearance, the Rays had shortstop Wander Franco positioned behind shortstop and second baseman Vidal Brujan playing short right field. Against Shohei Ohtani on Sunday, the Blue Jays played no infielders to the left of second base, with five of their seven defenders on the outfield grass.

Teams can do this because they know what the batters know: You score more runs hitting up. You score more runs hitting to the pull side. You score more runs hitting over the defense. The defense can concede one base, especially with the bases empty and at least one out, if it means the batter will forego the chance to hit the ball hard and far. They’re not trying to prevent hits, they’re trying to prevent runs. Batters have the opportunity, to varying degrees and projected success rates, to hit singles by changing their approach. They turn them down because in most cases, overall run production is lowered by doing so. 

Batters are not doing this in a vacuum, of course. One reason this approach is run-maximizing is that modern pitchers are throwing the nastiest pitches ever devised. It’s become a joke online, one I’ve made myself, to snark “just go the other way” when Pitching Ninja drops a clip of a Bugs Bunny breaking ball delivered by some anonymous 26-year-old who spent the winter sleeping on Kyle Boddy’s couch. These pitchers are asked to do less individually than any pitchers in baseball history, they almost never pitch tired, they are the primary beneficiaries of modern technology and analysis. There has been a scientific takeover of pitching that has no parallel on the other side of the ball.

As pitchers became harder to hit, batters doubled down on trying to make sure that the contact they made was the most valuable kind: up, pulled, and hard.

The Revolution

         FB%     Pull%     Hard%
2015   33.8%     39.1%     28.8%
2016   34.6%     39.7%     31.4%
2017   35.5%     39.8%     31.8%
2018   35.4%     40.3%     35.3%
2019   35.7%     40.7%     38.0%
2020   35.7%     41.0%     33.3%
2021   36.5%     40.0%     32.1%
2022   36.6%     40.5%     29.7%

(thanks, FanGraphs)


These calculations come from Sports Info Solutions, and you can see that the baseball has changed since 2019 in the decline in what they define as hard contact. Other studies have shown that batters are getting less value from their best-hit balls -- what StatCast calls “barrels” -- than they have in recent seasons. Batters are being punished for hitting the ball hard against the toughest pitchers ever.

Some fans will lament the failure of batters to evolve. The thing is, batters did evolve. People just don’t like the way they did. 

The double-bank-shot theory is wrong because it gets the order of events wrong. It ignores the main driver of recent changes in MLB, namely the evolution of pitchers and pitching. Instead, the theory burdens the hitters even further. Nothing at all has been done to rein in pitchers. The 13-pitcher limit, itself an ineffectual gesture, has been pushed back repeatedly under the guise of “health and safety.” Moving the mound back has been argued, tried, and seems to have been dismissed.

There are a lot of people betting that a pitch clock, almost certainly coming in 2023, will be what throttles back pitching. The idea is that forcing pitchers to work more quickly will lessen their ability to put maximum effort into each pitch. There’s been a very tight clock -- 14 seconds with the bases empty, 18 with runners on -- in place for about six weeks in the minor leagues. This is probably a topic for another day, but I am skeptical that this is a real short-term solution for MLB, for a set of reasons best summarized as “people actually care about MLB results.” Even at that, the clock hasn’t changed the statistics, other than time of game, in the leagues in which it’s been used. 

Deadening the baseball penalized hitters for adapting to modern pitching in a way that puts runs on the board, while making things even easier for a generation of pitchers-turned-witches. The only thing propping up offense, as strikeout rates rocketed from 17% to nearly 25%, was outcomes on batted balls. Making those balls less valuable for hitters showed that the decision-makers fundamentally didn’t understand what they were watching. It’s the pitchers, not the hitters.

The double-bank-shot theory fails because you can’t force hitters to hit in ways that produce fewer runs. The runs are in pulled fly balls, not in sprayed singles. You could, at one time, build an offense in different ways, back when pitchers could only strike out one in six, one in seven batters, when they would pitch tired, when they would face a batter four times a game, when the league hit .260 and the best teams might hit .285. Those days are over and until MLB takes action, they’re not coming back. You’d need to roll strikeout rates back to the mid-teens to make long-sequence offense viable again. The only path to that is moving the mound back or something truly radical like requiring four strikes for a strikeout.

MLB’s effort at behavior modification is misguided because in modern baseball, it’s not the hitters, it’s the pitchers. Until MLB gets serious about addressing the evolution of pitching -- until it shows it even recognizes the problem -- we’re nowhere.