Saturday, July 30, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 30, 2022 -- "Mariners/Reds Trade"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

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"In trading for Castillo, the Mariners set their rotation not just for 2022 but also for 2023, as Castillo will be his final year of arb eligibility. A ’23 rotation of Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Ray, and Chris Flexen or Emerson Hancock already pegs them as a threat to the Astros next year."
 
 

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 28, 2022 -- "The Slow Market"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"By expanding the playoffs yet again, MLB lowered not just the bar for entry but the bar for contention with two months to go. That 'eighteen' is part of the problem, as it leaves just 12 teams that are clearly sellers, and not all of those 12 have chips."

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 26, 2022 -- "Guardians of Contact"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The Guardians are squeezing all they can out of their contact-oriented offense, and they have a 99 wRC+. The offense is representative of a team that’s pretty much average down the line: The rotation is 17th in FIP, while throwing the seventh-most innings in baseball. The bullpen is 13th in FIP. The defense rises above that, rated a bit above average by Defensive Efficiency and Defensive Runs Saved, and third in all of baseball by Outs Above Average."

Monday, July 25, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 25, 2022 -- "The Reeling Red Sox"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Things should start getting better as soon as this week, with Martinez back tonight and Wincowski back tomorrow. Wacha and Hill are throwing simulated games and could be headed for minor-league rehab assignments shortly. Story should be back next week, and perhaps Arroyo and Devers as well. Even without adding from outside the organization, the August Red Sox will be better than the July ones."

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 21, 2022 -- "2015 Reprise Coming?"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"We know the league switched the baseball in 2015. What I am wondering is whether MLB will do so again. I mean, nothing is really out of the question at this point. They made this switch in 2015. They seemed to have a different ball in play for the 2019 postseason than was used in the 2019 regular season. They put two balls with very different characteristics in play throughout the 2021 season. At this point, MLB simply cannot be trusted to have a single baseball in play for an entire season."

Monday, July 18, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 18, 2022 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The other possibility is trading for someone to replace Yuli Gurriel. Gurriel had a big bounceback from the pandemic year, but in 2022 he’s been a replacement-level player, hitting .238/.289/.391. At 38, his defense at first base is no longer anything special. The Astros could trade for Josh Bell, a two-month rental, and get a huge bump at the position. Dom Smith hasn’t hit this year and could be a nice buy-low play if they want to take a chance."

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 17, 2022 -- "Juan Soto"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"History tells us that the Nationals can screw up their team for decades if they trade Juan Soto. It would be a lot easier to just make him an offer that’s more in line with what Soto’s peers are making. Do they want to win the news cycle, or do they want to win the World Series?"

Friday, July 15, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 15, 2022 -- "Moving Weekend"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"What happens in a three-game series shouldn’t be determinative, but if the Orioles were to win this series, or even sweep, and perhaps head into the All-Star break clinging to a playoff berth, it will be that much harder for Mike Elias to take the next steps in this building process. Buying would become a potential option; keep in mind that the Orioles have gotten replacement-level performance from their double-play combination this year, and not much better at third base, so adding even league-average infielders would make a big difference to them."

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 13, 2022 -- "The Solution"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Baseball should move to seven-inning games.

"Lopping two innings off the game cuts out about 40 minutes, rolling back game times to what they were during the 1970s. Ever notice, at the game, that the crowd tends to leave around two-and-a-half hours in no matter what is happening? That’s about how long casual fans, and most people with kids, will stay at the ballpark. They’re leaving at 9:30 unless someone’s got a no-hitter going or you’re already in the bottom of the ninth with some drama possible."
 
 

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, June 28, 2022 -- "No Longer LOLrioles"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 14, No. 54
June 28, 2022

Well, it wasn’t my intent to go dark for nearly the entire trip to Chicago, but that’s the way it turned out. Other than the White Sox/Orioles game Thursday night, I haven’t watched an inning of baseball in a week, and have kept up largely by following Slack and occasional scrolls through Twitter. This wasn’t a relaxing trip, but it was a restorative one, and I find myself very much looking forward to a full slate of games Tuesday.

Before I leave that trip behind though, let’s talk about the team I watched at New Comiskey -- you can’t make me call it something else -- last week. Oh, no, not that one, they’ve gotten plenty of coverage here for a sub-.500 squad. No, I mean the Orioles, who used four pitchers in throwing a nine-hit shutout of the Sox on a gorgeous night on the South Side. The White Sox are a bit shy of major league players at the moment, and the lineup they started was light on OBP in the bottom half, but shutouts are shutouts.

The Orioles walked just three of the 38 batters they faced, striking out ten. Dean Kremer scattered seven hits over 5 2/3 innings. Felix Bautista, who just looks like a dominant reliever, entered a jam in the sixth, whiffed Seby Zavala to get out of it, and tacked on two more strikeouts in the seventh. Jorge Lopez, surprise closer, entered the ninth with the tying run on deck and struck out Tim Anderson and Andrew Vaughn on seven pitches combined.

The pitchers weren’t the only impressive Orioles on this night. Adley Rutschman hit a rocket of a two-run homer, part of an ongoing hot streak that has put his 8-for-56 start in the rear-view mirror. Rutschman has hit .327/.373/.673 with just seven strikeouts in 59 PA since June 10. I pegged him for AL Rookie of the Year and he just might win it from behind, though the competition -- Julio Rodriguez, Jeremy Peña, Bobby Witt Jr. -- is fierce. Behind the plate, Rutschman has nailed two of six runners stealing, and in early returns is 17th among 71 catchers in framing runs (min. 250 pitches). The wait for Rutschman was certainly longer than it needed to be, but he’s here now and he’s going to be the Orioles’ best player in the 2020s.

It’s an odd thing to take away from a game in which the team allowed nine hits on 24 balls in play, but the Orioles’ defense made a big impression. Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander each made a play on balls hit over their heads with a runner on base, preserving the shutout while showing strong range. Austin Hays made two great plays, first throwing Gavin Sheets out at home in the fifth, then the play of the night, a diving catch on the right-field line to rob Jake Burger of at least an RBI double and maybe more. By Defensive Efficiency, a simple measure of batted balls turned into outs, the Orioles have their best defense since 2015. 

That Hays catch rescued Dillon Tate, who along with Bautista and Lopez threw 3 1/3 innings of the shutout. The Orioles’ bullpen, a laughingstock in recent seasons, is the biggest surprise of 2022:

No Longer For the Birds

         ERA   Rk     FIP   Rk    fWAR   Rk
2022    3.05    3    3.59    6     4.0    2
2021    5.70   30    4.87   30     2.5   18
2019    5.79   30    5.38   30     1.0   22
2018    4.78   27    4.59   28     2.7   18

(Thanks, FanGraphs)


Orioles relievers have thrown more innings than any other team’s. Of the five teams who have asked at least 300 innings from their relievers, the Orioles have the lowest ERA and by far the lowest FIP. They’re getting both volume and run prevention from a group of pitchers who, even today, wouldn’t get recognized across the street from Camden Yards. 

I’ve named eight Orioles so far, and just two are older than 27 this year. None are even 30 yet. Every one of the hitters has been at least average -- Mullins exactly so with a 100 wRC+ -- and every one of the pitchers has been above-average, albeit in very small samples. This is normally a reason to get excited, and surely it’s been more fun for Orioles fans, but we’re still a year early. None of those eight may be 30 yet, but just two, Rutschman and Hays, are younger than 27. Rutschman is 24, which is old for a superstar rookie these days. Grayson Rodriguez, whom we expected to see in Baltimore right about now, is 22 and will enter his age-23 season having yet to throw 105 innings in a year as a pro. That makes it hard to rely on him next year. DL Hall has walked 28 men in 38 1/3 innings at Triple-A. Gunnar Henderson may end up topping prospect charts in six months -- he turns 21 tomorrow and has wrecked Double-A and Triple-A this year.

What I’m getting at here is that at 35-40, the Orioles have been the most entertaining they have been in a long time. And at 35-40, the Orioles are still best served by focusing on 2024 and beyond. They’re not good enough now, and they are unlikely to be good enough in 2023, though they will likely be a sexy sleeper pick this coming winter. The next month is the time to figure out which of the players responsible for this surprising half of baseball might be on that ’24 team, and which ones should be traded for players who will. I think you can go forward with Rutschman, Mullins, Hays, and Ryan Mountcastle as the core from this roster. I would keep Bautista and probably Dillon Tate from the pitching staff, though in truth, neither Kremer nor Keegan Akin is going to draw much trade attention, so you can continue to let them develop.

That leaves a pretty good list of trade chits:

-- Pop-up closers should always be dealt. Jorge Lopez had a 6.04 career ERA and a 5.15 career FIP coming into this season, and while he’d been better in relief, including late last year, he doesn’t project as a long-term solution. He’s 29 now and a free agent after 2025. Look around at the bullpens of some contenders -- looking at you, Twins -- and tell me you can’t cash in Lopez for more than he is reasonably worth. 

-- I have always liked Anthony Santander, and he’s playing well this year: .239/.332/.433, though with not much value outside the batter’s box. Like Lopez, he’s a free agent after 2025, and with the Orioles having Mullins and Hays, I don’t think they need to lock up an entire outfield. They’ll need a spot or two in the lineup to fit the free agent stars they should be looking to sign in the next few seasons. Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad may also be putting claims on left field by 2024. Santander could look good to a contender looking to hedge its bets on 2022 by acquiring a player they can control for additional years, perhaps the White Sox or Giants.

-- Trading Trey Mancini will be a hard thing to do. He’s the longest-tenured Oriole, he’s been productive, and his battle with cancer has inspired fans both in and outside of Baltimore. He’s also 31 next year, with a .429 SLG since his return, and while he can fake it in an outfield corner, he’s mostly a DH/1B. If Carlos Santana can bring back a pretty good return in trade, Mancini should be able to as well.

If the Orioles choose to keep him, though, they really should try to work out a two-year deal before the trade deadline. We still don’t know if there will be a qualifying-offer system, but if there is, stapling a draft pick to Mancini would wreck his market value, and I don’t think the Orioles want to do that, or lose him for nothing otherwise.

-- Jordan Lyles can be set outside Camden Yards with a “Free to Good Home” sign.

We can now say with confidence that the Orioles are back on their way up after a miserable five-year stretch. The next step is to take advantage of the good play of the players who are not long-term Orioles to help make the mid-decade teams a little better. The AL East is no joke and isn’t likely to become one. Even with the expanded playoffs and more balanced schedules, the Orioles won’t have the luxury of building a .500 team and hoping to catch some variance. They have to aim for 90 wins, and that effort should continue in July.

 

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 12, 2022 -- "Fun With Numbers"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"The A’s have a .272 OBP through a little more than half their season, so to reach .280, they’ll have to have about a .290 OBP the rest of the way. Looking at their lineup, that’s going to be a tall task. The A’s are making history, just not the good kind."
 
 

Monday, July 11, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 11, 2022 -- "NL East on the Line"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"Now, these performance changes have hurt the Mets, but you don’t lose nine games off a lead while playing over .500 without some help. At the end of May, the Braves were 23-27 after blowing a 6-2 lead to the Diamondbacks, including a 7-6 lead in the tenth inning. The next day, they shut out the Snakes and they didn’t lose for two weeks, ripping off 14 straight wins. Over the same 39-day stretch in which the Mets went 18-16, the Braves went 28-8, making up almost all the lost ground. "

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 6, 2022 -- "Mariners Worse, But Better"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"That’s not been the case in 2022. A team that was 39% better than its baseline in high-leverage spots in ’21 is 9% worse in them this year. As statheads have long preached, clutch hitting isn’t a skill over and above hitting, and outlier performances in those spots, good and bad, will always regress."

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 5, 2022 -- "The Market"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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Kansas City Royals: Getting the Royals to act in their own best interests is the challenge. Whit Merrifield should have been traded two years ago; now he’s 33 with a .291 OBP. Andrew Benintendi is the most likely prize, as he’s bounced back from a lost 2020 to hit .290/.345/.427 as a Royal with strong defense in left field. He’s basically Alex Gordon Lite. Michael Taylor is having a career year and would be a big upgrade in center for a number of contenders, even a couple of World Series favorites. He’s signed through 2023. Hunter Dozier is just in the way here, has bench-bat value on a good team and is signed inexpensively through 2024 with an option for 2025.

 

Friday, July 1, 2022

Newsletter Excerpt, July 1, 2022 -- "Players' Weekend"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and has been a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

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"I retired the “my guys” conceit a while back, but had I done it this year, Luis Arraez would have been high on the list. I have Arraez in both Mixed LABR and AL Tout, valuing his bat-to-ball skills and positional flexibility. Arraez leads the AL with a .340 batting average thanks in part to being one of the best contact hitters in baseball: an 8% strikeout rate this year, 9% in his four-year career. Since his debut in 2019, Arraez is one of just three players, with Alex Bregman and Juan Soto, to walk more than he’s struck out."