The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Deadline Day
Vol. 17, No. 61
July 31, 2025
With eight or so hours until the trade deadline, no trade has risen to the “write it up and send it” standard yet this year, the first time that has happened since 2021. Am I too picky? Last year I wrote up the Randy Arozarena deal and the Dodgers/Cardinals/White Sox three-way; two years ago it was Max Scherzer to the Rangers. I don’t think the Jhoan Duran or Eugenio Suarez trades rise to those levels. Suarez is a rental bat traded for a package led by the #9 prospect in a decent system. Duran, as good a relief pitcher as he is, is still a relief pitcher. It’s an indication of the weakness of this year’s deadline that those two headline the activity so far.
By my count, there were 13 trades completed yesterday, counting the as-yet-unofficial Suarez deal as one of them and calling the late-night Dodgers/Reds/Rays deal as just one. Eight involved relief pitchers, and of all the prospects on the move, just two -- the ones the Phillies traded for Duran -- show up in top-100 rankings. It was a busy day, but by and large just a super-sized version of the agate-type deals that made up the deadline activity to date. MLB sent a breathless press release pegging the Suarez trade as a “blockbuster,” but it’s just not.
Here’s what I’ll be tracking today as we approach the 6 p.m. deadline. It’s a great day to join the Newsletter Slack, where #hot-stove-talk will have subscribers talking about the action and inaction all day and night.
-- Will we get a bigger deal than what we’ve seen so far? Even with Duran and a number of other relievers traded, there are others in the rumor mill, including Mason Miller and Robert Suarez. The best starters include righties with ace peaks and middling 2025 lines such as Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Charlie Morton. With Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor both in Seattle now, the pickings are very slim among hitters -- Marcell Ozuna, Luis Robert Jr., Ryan O’Hearn, maybe Brendan Donovan.
-- Will the trend of teams holding their best prospects continue? Whether any individual prospect is a top-100 guy, a top-five guy in a system, varies, but we can say that no consensus top-100 prospects were moved a year ago. This year, the best ones to be traded are Phillies A-ball catcher Eduardo Tait and Triple-A righty Mick Abel. Maybe that’s “prospect hugging,” but I think it’s just a reflection of the MLB talent on offer. The trend, as illustrated by the Mets’ moves and the Suarez trade, is to trade bulk for rentals without touching the top of the system. Teams trading for the future lean on their pro scouting departments to identify players who will be contributors, even if they may lack the upside or certainty of top-rated minor leaguers.
I expect that by the end of today, Abel and Tait will remain the best prospects dealt.
-- Will everyone get in the pool? Seven teams have yet to make a trade of note during the deadline window, including two division leaders (the Dodgers and Astros) and two others in playoff position (the Red Sox and Padres). All have needs, and all but the Astros have more than enough talent to make a big deal. The Sox have a position player logjam and a need to add pitching and a first baseman. The Padres have been rumored to be trying a buy/sell dance, offering up Robert Suarez and Dylan Cease for some desperately needed hitters.
On the sell side, neither the A’s nor the Marlins have moved players off their rosters, while the White Sox have made one small deal. The Sox don’t have much left; Robert Jr. has hit .219/.288/.368 since the start of 2024 and might not be a center fielder any longer. Mike Tauchman (.291/.372/.472) would look good in a lot of lineups, though, and Michael A. Taylor has fourth-outfielder value for lefty-heavy teams. Adrian Houser could eat innings for a better team, though he may not make a playoff pitching staff.
The A’s, notably, held Mason Miller out of a save situation Wednesday night, driving speculation he will be dealt today. They could also move Luis Severino and/or Jeffrey Springs.
The Marlins have Alcantara, the hard-to-price former Cy Young winner who has had the worst season of his career in his comeback from Tommy John surgery. He’s shown some flashes of his former self, and he’s controlled through 2027, making him a bit more attractive than his stat line indicates. Edward Cabrera is controlled through 2028 and pitching better than Alcantara. Peter Bendix doesn’t have to trade any of these guys, and with the Marlins playing very well this summer, may see his team’s path back to the playoffs as featuring these starters, not dealing them.
The Padres, the Marlins, and the Red Sox control the board today. Whether we have a very big deadline or just another agatefest depends on their level of aggressiveness.
-- Is there a surprise out there? With the modern rumorocracy, it’s hard for us to be truly surprised anymore. Just about any player who could possibly be dealt is usually mentioned at some point, especially now that deadline coverage starts around Easter. If we get a surprise, it will probably come from an organization not known for leaking, such as the Rays, A’s, or Marlins. Throw the Dodgers in there if you want.
The Dodgers, with a very old roster driving a win-now mandate and a farm system deep in position players, are the team most likely to come out of the blue with a shocker along the lines of 2021’s additions of Scherzer and Trea Turner in a single deal. Maybe Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber from the Guardians? Alcantara and Dane Myers from the Marlins? Mason Miller and Jeffrey Springs from the A’s? If we get a 6 p.m. shocker, I think it’ll come from Andrew Friedman and Co.
(While this was being edited, the Guardians seem to have traded Bieber to the Blue Jays. Oh, well.)
With MLB clearing the decks for the deadline -- just three games all day, and none going between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. -- it’s a big day for iced coffee, refreshing [your social media app of choice] and talking ball. I’ll be on Slack all day, will write up any truly big deals if they happen, and no matter what have something for you tonight wrapping the day’s events.
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Most of the trades yesterday fell into the “we’ll get to them in bulk after the smoke clears” category, but let’s at least touch on a few of the bigger storylines.
The Phillies paid a big price in talent for the best player dealt so far in Jhoan Duran. The Twins’ righty has a career 2.47 ERA and 2.77 FIP, with some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. The 97-mph “splinker” he throws helps him post the second-highest groundball rate, 65.4%, among all relievers (min. 40 IP). Duran becomes the best pitcher in what has been a rough Phillies pen, and probably the one-inning save collector role Rob Thomson has been trying to fill all year. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering will set him up, with David Robertson eventually joining the mix, and Jose Alvarado returning from his suspension for some regular-season innings.
The Phillies didn’t need Mick Abel, their #7 starter now and unlikely to move up past #6 in 2026. They may eventually miss Eduardo Tait, a teenaged catcher who has hit well for his age in A ball, though in the long term he may move out from behind the plate. The Phillies, like the Dodgers, are an aging team in win-now mode; they can move their 2029 catcher without remorse.
The Mets traded six players for two relievers, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley, three guys for each. The first trade was a bit of a shocker, as the deal included one of the outfielders the Mets got for Justin Verlander, Drew Gilbert, and a pitcher who was throwing high-leverage innings in last year’s playoffs, Jose Butto. While three players for 20 innings of relief seems like a lot, after taking a beat I came around on the trade. Not being a prospecthead, I initially reacted to Gilbert’s name, but he’s no longer a top prospect, just a familiar face. The best prospect the Mets dealt yesterday was probably shortstop Jesus Baez, a 20-year-old with a career .243/.332/.401 line in the low minors.
Rogers and Helsley bring depth to a Mets bullpen that was weak behind Edwin Diaz. In adding the two, David Stearns gave Carlos Mendoza both power and funk, Helsley a traditional fastball/slider guy, Rogers a submariner whose groundball rate is just behind that of Duran this year. Rogers also has a history of being tough on lefties even with his unusual arm angle (.232/.287/.335 career, 120/28 K/UIBB, with three seasons allowing a 557 or lower OPS to them).
The Reds made a couple of peculiar trades, adding a glove man in Ke’Bryan Hayes and a homer-prone starter in Zack Littell. The swaps made them buyers, but maybe not better. Hayes is one of the most extreme players in baseball. a non-hitter who plays a gorgeous third base. Hayes is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2030, and even with a .236/.279/.290 line this year is on pace for about a two-win season. I can see an argument for acquiring him, especially given the limited cost in talent (Sammy Stafura, a walkcentric A-ball shortstop who will get the bat knocked out of his hands at higher levels). He’s just a strange fit for the Reds, who needed to improve their offense and probably made it worse in this deal.
Noelvi Marte, in the middle of a breakout as the Reds’ third baseman, will now move to right field, as the Reds continue their tradition of taking good young third basemen and trying to break them. Before yesterday Marte had played eight professional innings on the grass. If the team really wants to play Hayes at third, I’d rather see them install Marte as the everyday DH and use Austin Hays and even Gavin Lux on the outfield corners. Marte is too valuable to force him into on-the-job training just when he’s finally getting things together at the plate. The move is all downside risk and it’s not like playing him out there to squeeze Lux into the lineup is necessary.
The Reds backed this up by acquiring the pitcher who leads MLB in homers allowed, Zack Littell, to pitch at Great American Small Park. Littell has the 19th-highest flyball rate among 64 qualified starters this year, leading to 26 bombs while with the Rays. Adding any starter provides some insurance against Hunter Greene’s fragile body, and this could let the Reds make Chase Burns a relief pitcher down the stretch. The Reds are going to want to manage Burns’s workload -- I’ve been heard on whether that’s a worthwhile endeavor -- but I think it may be the best way to deploy Burns. He could become the team’s best relief pitcher before the season is out, and the dominant righty they simply do not have in the pen right now.
The Reds seem to want to get better on the margins without making a serious investment in the roster. They haven’t done enough yet, and they are a team with a lot on the line today. Nick Krall has to commit.
After midnight, the long-awaited Eugenio Suarez trade happened, with the Mariners bringing back their former third baseman without moving talent anywhere near the top of their strong farm system. Even with Suarez’s big 2025 season, and some evidence to suggest it’s real, the Mariners got Suarez for volume in a package led by the next Ty France, Tyler Locklear.
I’d said a few times that I think the Mariners would be fine with Ben Williamson at third base and adding a DH. I think that’s still the case; were I Dan Wilson, I would leave Williamson alone at third and make Suarez the everyday designated hitter, turning Jorge Polanco (.210/.282/.345 since May 1) into the backup infielder or maybe even an ex-Mariner. Suarez can move to third when Cal Raleigh gets his half-days off at DH. The defensive gap between Williamson and Suarez is very large, larger than the gap between the bats of Willamson and Polanco. With the decline of J.P. Crawford on defense, a Crawford/Suarez left side could be quite damaging. The team’s best alignment lets Williamson field, Suarez hit, and Polanco watch.
