Newsletter Excerpt, November 19, 2025 -- "Mailbag, Pt. 2 -- Looking Forward"

 

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As a lifelong Tigers fan, I’m concerned the Tigers might fall into the same trap that the Orioles fell into -- too in love with their own prospects and not making a big trade or signing that could push them over the top. This team has a good number of decent young players and prospects but not any superstars (other than 

Tarik Skubal). I’d love for them to really go for it this year, but I doubt they will. Any advice?

-- Keith F.

I don’t think these Tigers have the depth those Orioles teams did. I’d have never recommended they trade Holliday or Henderson or Rutschman, the Kevin McGonigle/Max Clark equivalents. They were so deep, though, that they should have been moving some of the Westburg/Cowser/Mayo class. Not doing so, while ALSO not spending real money, may have blown up the rocket on the launch pad.

The Tigers have to do something this winter that’s bigger than Gleyber Torres/Jack Flaherty. They’ve been a much better story than baseball team the last two years, with underlying numbers pegging them as a middling squad, not a good one. Maybe that’s a big deal built around Bryce Rainer, maybe it’s signing both Bregman and a starting pitcher. Maybe it’s all of that. If this is the last year they’ll have Skubal, they have to be all in around him. 

--J.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, November 18, 2025 -- "Mailbag Pt. 1 -- Looking Back"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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Yes, Clase and Ortiz got caught, but Clase had been carrying out these activities since 2023. The system worked here, but it took its sweet time. It's possible that if Clase hadn't gotten greedy (or, perhaps, if Ortiz hadn't gotten blabby) all of this might have proceeded for a good deal longer. We don't know how many guys got (or are getting) away with pitch-fixing now, but that number probably isn't zero.

-- Rich J.

I don’t think the system worked here. The system just isn’t really designed to catch what Clase and his confederates were doing, though I am pretty shocked you could get down this kind of action on “first pitch,” and then keep doing it to the tune of six figures in profits. It’s because the system can’t regulate this stuff that you have to consider eliminating the exploitable markets. They’re just too easy to manipulate and too easy for a player to justify to himself “hey, it’s just one pitch.” It feels different than throwing a game.

And yes…the chance that Clase or Ortiz were the only guys doing this is probably not zero.

It all comes back to these spot markets. They create the problem, and while I’ll never come out against sports betting, I am in favor of removing markets that are bad for the game. 

--J.

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, November 17, 2025 -- "Mariners Retain Josh Naylor"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The skills Naylor does have, though, give him a high floor for the next few seasons. He combines contact, plate discipline. and power in a way that’s hard to find. Since 2023, among 229 hitters with at least 1000 PA, Naylor is 22nd in strikeout rate, 39th in SLG, and 128th in walk rate. That last figure, 8%, doesn’t jump out at you, but it’s not bad for a player who puts the bat on the ball as much as Naylor does. Naylor chases a lot -- 19th in this group -- but is above average at making contact on those chases and gets above-average results when he hits the ball (.331 wOBA on those swings). Naylor, on the page...come to think of it, on the field...looks like Vladito Lite in every way. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, November 11, 2025 -- "An Ugly Proposition"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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You can see where the idea would be seductive. A pitcher can give up some performance equity by starting a batter 1-0, but as we saw above that’s unlikely to change the outcome of a game. Again, in just one of the cited instances did the game state change with Clase pitching, and that was the one in which Clase intended to throw a strike and did, retiring the batter in question. Porter and Rozier would let their confederates know they were planning to exit games early with injuries, allowing under bets on their statistics to hit. Freeman went the other way, intending to hit his overs, something he controlled as a high-usage star on a mediocre team.

Everyone in that paragraph got caught.

I am no longer sure that means the system is working. There are too many markets, too many players, too many points of weakness in the system. Microbetting introduces temptation for everyone, and rigging one pitch or one jump shot or one bad pass is easier for a player to justify to himself than shaving points or throwing a game. MLB made a big deal yesterday of partnering with betting companies to limit pitch bets to $200 a pop and not allow parlays on them. It addresses the specifics of the alleged wrongdoing by Clase and Ortiz, but it fails to do anything about the larger issues of microbetting. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, November 7, 2025 -- "QOs and DePo's"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The NFL hasn’t worked out for DePodesta, and you can understand his taking an opportunity to return to where he had his greatest success. DePodesta is smart and data-driven, traits the Rockies desperately need. My biggest concern is just the length of time he’s been gone; baseball, and particularly player analysis and development, has aged a century in the last decade. The metrics, the tools, the thinking are nothing like the game DePodesta left in 2016. Even assuming he’s kept up a little as a long-time baseball guy with an interest in the sport, he’s going to have to learn a lot in a short period of time. He’s also going to have to drag the Rockies into the 2020s by building out a modern player development system almost from scratch.
 

 

 

 

Awards

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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My picks for the major awards:

 

AL MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Tigers

AL Rookie of the Year: Nick Kurtz, Athletics

 

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pirates

NL Rookie of the Year: Drake Baldwin, Braves

 

I don't pick Managers of the Year.