Newsletter Excerpt, June 26, 2025 -- "Deadline Data"

 

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MLB now allows 40% of its teams into a playoff system that compresses the quality gap between good and bad teams. There is more value to sneaking into the MLB playoffs than there is to sneaking into the NFL and NBA version. I’ve been saying for years that this would mean less active trade deadlines because of an imbalance between buyers and sellers. I’m not sure, three deadlines into this structure, that has been borne out.

2024: 17 buyers, 11 sellers, 2 both/did nothing/undefined
2023: 17 buyers, 9 sellers, 4 both/did nothing/undefined
2022: 12 buyers, 12 sellers, 6 both/did nothing/undefined
2021: 16 buyers, 13 sellers, 1 both/did nothing/undefined  

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, June 25, 2025 -- "The Angels"

 

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Their aggressive promotion of first-round picks, along with the performance of ones who have been around a while, makes them a lot of fun. Schanuel had the night off last night, but Monday the Angels started six of their own first-round picks, including all of the top four in their lineup. That’s a rare feat, and one even the most aggressive rebuilding teams rarely pull off. The Angels may not be good, but any team that puts this many homegrown players on the field is doing at least one thing right. I’m looking forward to seeing that group this afternoon in the sunshine. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, June 23, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

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It will be interesting to see how he holds up. In each of the last three years, Raleigh hit better in the second half than he did in the first, this despite leading the league in innings caught last year and finishing second in 2023. It’s very hard to see him continuing that streak, but because he’s shown he can hold up over a full season, it may not be necessary to project a big falloff. Raleigh, already with 4.2 bWAR, has a very real chance to join a short list of eight-win catching seasons:

Best Ever? (highest bWAR* by catcher, min. 80 games caught)

Mike Piazza    LAD    1997   8.7

Gary Carter    MON    1982   8.6

Johnny Bench   CIN    1972   8.6

Johnny Bench   CIN    1974   7.9

Joe Mauer      MIN    2009   7.8

*note that Baseball-Reference WAR does not include framing stats

So no, I don’t care that Raleigh has done all of this by a particular date on the calendar. That’s just the schedule. What’s real is that he’s combined two very specific and valuable elements of 21st-century baseball -- framing pitches and pulling fly balls -- into a league-dominating whole. 

 

 

 

All-Star Ballots

  

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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American League

 

First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros 

Third base: Jose Ramirez, Guardians 

Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

Catcher: Cal Raleigh, Mariners

Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees

Outfield: Byron Buxton, Twins

Outfield: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners  

Designated Hitter: Brent Rooker, Athletics  

 

National League

 

First base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Second base: Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 

Third base: Manny Machado, Padres 

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Mets

Catcher: Will Smith, Dodgers

Outfield: Juan Soto, Mets

Outfield: Kyle Tucker, Cubs

Outfield: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

 

Newsletter Excerpt, June 18, 2025 -- "NL Central Notes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ headache dump of Aaron Civale -- hey, go enjoy being a White Sock! -- was mean. Civale, though, simply overestimated his value. Despite occasionally impressive ERAs, he’s a #4 starter at best, and he has a better chance of falling out of the league than starting another playoff game. He’s now been traded in three straight seasons, and his FIP has climbed from 3.57 to 4.74 to 5.21 in that time. That guy doesn’t get to dictate his usage.

The Brewers, again in contention with a fairly anonymous roster, have too many good starting pitchers. They’ve already been jerking around rookie righty Logan Henderson, who despite a 1.71 ERA (3.02 FIP) in four starts, hasn’t been able to keep his roster spot. Last Thursday the team called up power arm Jacob Misiorowski, who had been whiffing nearly a third of the batters he faced in Triple-A. He sat 99, touched 102, got 13 swings-and-misses on 37 swings and generally abused the Cardinals in five no-hit innings.

Those two aren’t even the most productive rookies. Chad Patrick, a 26-year-old in his third organization, leads the NL in starts and all NL rookies in fWAR, coming out of nowhere to be the Brewers’ #2 starter this year. The Brewers, led by Patrick, have gotten more value from rookie pitchers than anyone but the White Sox and Dodgers. More importantly, they enabled me to create a list, in the year 2025, on which the White Sox and Dodgers are the top two teams.

Strange Bedfellows (most fWAR by rookie pitchers, 2025)

             ERA    FIP   fWAR

White Sox   3.70   4.20    2.2

Dodgers     4.37   3.80    2.0

Brewers     4.73   4.41    1.6

Yankees     4.56   3.29    1.5

Astros      4.92   4.38    1.1

The Brewers have become a pitching-development machine, whether it’s with castoffs like Patrick and Tobias Myers or with their own prospects like Henderson and Misiorowski. This ground gets even more crowded in the second half, when Brandon Woodruff, who has been a bit snakebit in his rehab stints, joins the group. A rotation of Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski, and Henderson, with Patrick, Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, maybe even Nestor Cortes around for depth, is one that could find its way back to the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.

  

Newsletter Excerpt, June 16, 2025 -- "Red Sox/Giants Trade"

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You can squint and make baseball arguments for this trade, if you’re motivated to do so. What I see is a front office that lost a couple of power struggles, didn’t like that, and saw the opportunity to have the final word and take back close to $300 million in the process. This wasn’t a trade, it was a tantrum.