Thursday, August 17, 2023

Newsletter Excerpt, August 17, 2023 -- "The Troy O'Leary Paradox"


This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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"The Troy O’Leary Paradox states that a team that identifies an undervalued player and is proven right will attach too much weight to the player and not enough to their process. This causes them to retain that player right at the point they should be moving on from him.

"In the winter of 2002-03, the -dians made a minor trade for a blocked Rangers hitting prospect, Travis Hafner. From 2004 through 2006, Hafner would be one of the best hitters in baseball, leading the AL in OPS+ twice and hitting .308/.419/.611 for the three years. A couple of weeks after Hafner’s 30th birthday in July 2007, the -dians signed him to a four-year, $57-million contract extension. Hafner, coming off two top-ten MVP finishes, never appeared on another ballot, and over his last six years in Cleveland posted just eight WAR."