Newsletter Excerpt, September 12, 2025 -- "“Step right up and beat the Mets...”

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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The Royals scored eight runs in four games against the Guardians, losing three, and probably their playoff hopes along with them. In three seasons as GM, J.J. Piccolo’s offenses have a 91 wRC+, 27th in MLB ahead of just the Pirates, White Sox, and Rockies. This year’s team is going to fall short of the postseason thanks to the fourth-worst offense in the game. For all Piccolo’s success in picking pitchers to trade for and sign, he’s been a disaster when it comes to acquiring and deploying hitters, and he shares blame for the team’s failure to develop its own. Fixing the lineup has to be priorities #1 through #5 for the Royals this winter. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 10, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Phillies 9, Mets 3

HR: Schwarber (50)

Kyle Schwarber doesn’t have an NL MVP case, but so what? He has a 50-homer season, money in the bank. an enviable postseason track record, and the love of two fanbases.

It seems to me that Schwarber’s last two years underline the value of getting him off the field. Schwarber made 138 starts in left field in 2022, his first year with the Phillies, and 103 two years ago. Last year, they turned him into a DH, and he’s had just 13 starts in the field over two years. Those are also two of the best three years of his career, including this one: .240/.364/.562 with those 50 jacks and his lowest strikeout rate since 2019. He’s also been very durable: Schwarber is tied for third in plate appearances since he joined the Phillies in ’22, just a handful behind Matt Olson and Francisco Lindor.

Schwarber’s three-run homer in the seventh sealed the Phillies’ win and ended the NL East race. The Phillies’ magic number is nine and it’s just a race to see who will clinch their division first, them or the Tigers. The Phillies are also four up on the Dodgers for a first-round bye, and 2-0 since losing Trea Turner. Being able to coast through the final few weeks and not play in the first round will buy some extra time for Turner’s strained right hamstring to heal.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 8, 2025 -- "No Sweeps"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Since losing Jonathan Aranda at the trade deadline on July 31, the Rays are 23rd in runs scored and 22nd in wRC+ (93), down from tenth and 16th (99) in those categories prior to Aranda breaking his wrist. Aranda’s long-awaited breakout season -- .316/.394/.478 -- was sustaining this offense, and his loss may cost the Rays a playoff berth. The Rays have failed to reach even three runs in a game a third of the time without him. They have seven games left with the Jays, but have now dropped to 11 behind them, ending their AL East hopes.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 5, 2025 -- "Showdown Showcase"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Brewers, I can understand. The Jays’ success is a bit harder to get at, as the individual elements aren’t as impressive. Third-order record, though, sees them as just two games worse than actual. They do get a boost in close games; their one-run/extra-innings record is 23-18. They’re 8-4 in extras, and as I wrote a couple of weeks back, that is pretty much their edge over the Red Sox and Yankees. Updating...

Blue Jays in regulation, 73-55, 570 (8-4 in extras)

Yankees in regulation, 73-54, .575 (5-8 in extras)

Red Sox in regulation, 71-51, .582 (7-12 in extras)

The stupid-runner rule is flipping the AL East this year.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 4, 2025 -- "The AL West"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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These races will largely play out on the scoreboard. The Mariners have more games left with the National League (12) than they do with the American (10). Seattle plays just three more games against a relevant opponent, September 19-21 in Houston. They’re in an odd spot, with the Rangers and Astros playing each other. The Astros winning makes it harder for the Ms to win the division but easier for them to make the tournament. The Rangers winning keeps the division in play but puts a playoff spot at greater risk. Mariners fans, who are you rooting for this weekend?

The current ordering of the teams in the AL West is how it’s most likely to end. The Astros held on for months with a patchwork roster -- Joe Espada is still my AL Manager of the Year -- and now have gotten their best player and a number of rotation upgrades back. The Mariners were in position to take the division in August and saw their starting pitching collapse, aided by some bad batted-ball luck, at the wrong time. The Rangers didn’t hit for two months, then just when they seemed ready to make a 2023-like charge, lost three key players and their #2 starter for the year. Once again, it’s the Astros’ division. 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, September 2, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The concern with the Brewers was always the pitching staff, not the offense. I had the hitters 15th preseason, the rotation 23rd, the pen 17th -- the latter two units backed up by the best defense in baseball. The Brewers’ hitters have combined the second-highest BABIP and sixth-highest walk rate in baseball to produce the second-highest OBP, driving an offense that is top ten in wRC+. It may be a little over its skis, but it’s not going to be the problem. No, the risk here is entirely in the pitching staff. I am not entirely sure who the #2 starter is, and the injuries in the pen have pushed a lot of work onto Uribe and Aaron Ashby. Ashby is third in the majors in relief innings pitched since the break, Uribe is tied for 22nd.