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I want to separate the player from the transaction. I don’t think Murakami is going to hit well, at least not out of the gate. If you made me hang numbers for his 2026, I’d say .195/.270/.410, around what Michael Harris II hit last year for an 83 wRC+. Ceddanne Rafaela was in that range, as was Luis Garcia Jr. All those players hit for more average and less power than Murakami will, and all have more defensive value. Projection systems are far higher on Murakami.
That doesn’t make it a bad move by the Sox. It’s an upside play for them, betting on Murakami’s age and raw power. The investment, $17 million a year, means that he’s a net plus at two wins a year and not really hurting them at one. The money, for a team that had a $74 million payroll last year and may not get to $100 million this year, is just about irrelevant. With the Sox trying to get back their fan base after a brutal run of losing, Murakami provides an additional reason to come to the park.
