Monday, February 24, 2014

Excerpt: "Have the Orioles Done Enough?"

"Cruz, like Jimenez, isn't a high-impact player. Whereas Jimenez was worth 2.7 bWAR last year and a total of 2.7 bWAR the past three years, Cruz was worth 2.2 in last year's suspension-shortened campaign and a total of 5.9 over the same three years. As with Jimenez, the lowered cash cost of the contract makes Cruz worth the risk, especially since the Orioles can keep the increasingly poor outfielder limited to a DH role. The Orioles have holes in both left field and at DH, and can now keep their wishcasting about Nolan Reimold's health and Henry Urrutia's plate discipline limited to one lineup spot. At 33 and four years removed from his last big season, Cruz probably carries more downside risk than upside, and I say that as someone who doesn't think his association with Biogenesis had anything to do with his performance. He's just another good-not-great corner outfielder reaching his mid-thirties, a class that is all downside."