Saturday, September 6, 2014

Excerpt: "The Royals"

"The funny thing about that profile is that if the Royals can win the division, they will be a dangerous postseason team. I've written a lot about batting contact rate as a leading indicator; in what we'll call the Strikeout Era, dating to 2009, the team with the higher batting contact rate is 26-9 in postseason series. Those teams were 4-3 last year, with all three series losses to the eventual champion Red Sox. That 4-3 is the worst this indicator has performed, tied with 2010, in five seasons. It also correctly forecast the 2012 Giants, no one's pick heading into October, as World Series champs. In fact, those 2012 Giants look a bit like these Royals: a core of young veterans, a dominant young lefty starter, a lights-out bullpen, and that great contact rate."