Sunday, July 19, 2020

Newsletter Excerpt, July 19, 2020 -- "2020 Seasonish Preview: 2019 Report Card"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

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"Pretty, Pretty Good

           Predicted     Actual

Giants       77-85       77-85
Cardinals    91-71       91-71
Orioles     53-109      54-108
Mets         85-77       86-76
Astros      108-54      107-55
Phillies     82-80       81-81

"That’s two teams exactly right, and four others within a single game, spread across the distribution. Throw in another eight teams I got right to within three wins, and I picked almost half the league to within that three-win margin. It wasn’t as if I was just getting lucky, either. Remember, I start by projecting runs scored and allowed, and then move to wins and losses from that, making adjustments -- mostly bullpen and manager -- along the way. I had those Cardinals outscoring their opponents by 102 runs; they outscored them by 107. I was within ten runs of accuracy for six teams, including the Rays and White Sox, where I was off by just three."