Monday, April 29, 2024

Newsletter Excerpt, April 29, 2024 -- "Not Quite Disastros"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Even after sweeping the Rockies over the weekend in Mexico City, the Astros are well below expectation, further off their projection than any team actually trying to succeed. The thing is, they’re not nearly as bad as 9-19. They’ve been outscored by just 22 runs, giving them a 12-16 Pythagorean projection. Clay Davenport has them with an above-.500 third-order record at 14.5-13.5. Six games out of first in your morning paper (kids, ask your grandparents), they’re pretty much in a three-way tie with the Rangers and Mariners when you dig into underlying performance.