Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 30, 2025 -- "Here We Go Again"

 

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Maybe not these Rockies, though. They don’t do anything. They’re 28th in batting average, 20th in homers, 28th in steals, 25th in walks. They’re 28th in ERA, 26th in FIP, 26th in fWAR, 30th in strikeout rate, 19th in walk rate. I thought they might build around a strong defense; they’re 21st in Outs Above Average, 29th in Defensive Runs Saved, 30th in Defensive Efficiency. The Rockies have the lowest rate of hard-hit balls in the league, and just four teams have barreled fewer balls. On the flip side, no pitching staff has allowed more hard-hit balls. It’s 29 games, so all caveats about sample size apply, but the Rockies have earned 4-25. 

Monday, April 28, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 28, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

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Giants 3, Rangers 2

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K
Birdsong            3.0  3  0  0  0  5

Boy, do I love me a multi-inning relief pitcher. Hayden Birdsong, who lost out in the battle for the Giants’ fifth-starter spot to Landon Roupp, has instead become an absolute weapon out of the pen. He’s made seven relief appearances: three of three innings, three of two innings, just one that went one inning. He’s posted a 1.13 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, and in his last two outings has gone six innings while striking out nine of 23 batters faced. It’s all leverage work, too; in his last two appearances he started the sixth inning with the game ties, and his shutout innings led directly to Giants wins.

Birdsong has ditched his curve in making the move to the pen, picking up a half-tick on his fastball and more than two on his slider. His most effective weapon, though, has been a changeup that he uses to both lefties and righties, and that he’s been going out of the zone with more for whiffs -- a 50% swing-and-miss rate on the pitch. It’s the new hotness, a kick change that, per Eno Sarris, he throws with a rare grip.

We’ve seen Bob Melvin have success doing this with a pitcher before, getting the best work of Yusmeiro Petit’s long career in 2018 and 2019. Petit was 33 in 2018, though, while Birdsong is 23. The catch with a pitcher in this role is that it’s neither fish nor fowl, and as important as it can be to a team, it’s not one from which Birdsong is going to become rich or famous. The Giants haven’t had to go off rotation yet, but whether it’s a Justin Verlander injury, a Jordan Hicks spate of wildness, or Landon Roupp losing effectiveness, they will need a sixth starter, and Birdsong will probably be first up. It’s a shame, because the three-and-free reliever can be a critical player in the era of five-and-fly starters.

As an aside, this was a very good, tight, entertaining series that ended on one of the worst plays you’ll see all season.


 

Friday, April 25, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 25, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

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For heavens’ sake, please tell us what the hell is wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

-- Ed Q.

I get the frustration, but this is actually one of the best starts of Rodriguez’s career. A 110 OPS+ is way ahead of where he was in 2022 and 2024 at this point, and not far from where he was in 2023. The process stats are within his normal range, his average exit velocity and max EV are as well. He’s getting murdered on balls in play, a .246 BABIP that’s 90 points off his career level. Per Statcast he’s missing 40 points of BA and 65 points of SLG. so this really looks like a guy hitting into bad luck.

There’s a disconnect between his swing-and-miss rate, which is one of the worst in the game, and his strikeout rate, which has actually gone down slightly. He’s swinging through a lot of strikes, more than ever before. I’m loath to dig too deep into this on April 24, to be honest — it’s just something to keep an eye on. 

--J.
 
 
 

 

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 24, 2025 -- "Potpourri"

 

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The Orioles’ pitching investments this winter were one-year deals for a total of $28 million for Tomoyuki Sagano and Charlie Morton. Morton has the highest ERA of any starter, 10.89; Sugano actually has a 3.54 mark in five starts, but it’s a mirage. He’s struck out nine of 113 batters and comes with a 5.81 FIP. Just one starting pitcher in the last 18 seasons has managed to be worth even one bWAR with a sub-10% strikeout rate: Paul Blackburn in 2017. Set the line at 12%, and you can find some examples starting in 2017 -- Ty Blach in ’17, Martin Perez in ’16, some more in 2015. In 2025, though, it’s just not possible to survive this way.

 
 
 

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 22, 2025 -- "Tottering Twins"

 

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The Twins had a notable late-season collapse, didn’t do anything to improve a .500 team or get the fans invested, and are starting this year injured and playing in football weather. I expect the offense to be better and the team to convert more winnable games into wins. Lopez and Wallner will return, and probably Lewis too for a little while. We’ve seen the Twins promote Luke Keaschall and they have promising hitters behind him in Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. Homegrown talent isn’t going to be the problem. The schedule presents a gift this week, six home games with the White Sox and Angels that will go a long way to getting the Twins on track.
 
 

Friday, April 18, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 18, 2025 -- "Third Base Stathead"

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Third-base coaches, more than anyone else on the field at a given moment, have to be statheads. Beasley made his choice to send Higashioka based on the relative positions of the baseball, Trout, and Higashioka. He made his choice the way third-base coaches have long made those choices, considering the outfielder’s arm and the runner’s speed, perhaps with some vague, instinctive notion of game state baked in. That’s not good enough. Every single decision a third-base coach makes absolutely has to be informed by run expectation charts and game state. Beasley, more than any player and even more than Bruce Bochy, has to understand the risk-reward, the actual math, behind his choice. He needs to consider not just the physical aspects, the ball and the fielder and the runner, but take into account who is coming up next. 
 
 

 

Monday, April 14, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 14, 2025 -- "Cubs Getting Dubs"

 

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A team can carry one guy like this. The Cubs also have Matt Shaw, the well-regarded prospect who is off to a .164/.292/.236 start. Shaw is handling the transition to third base reasonably well; he’s just not doing anything at the plate. With Turner and Workman not playing any better, though, Craig Counsell has to stick with Shaw. To Shaw’s credit, he has drawn ten walks against just 17 strikeouts, and he is pulling the ball in the air (24% of his batted balls, well above the league average), both signs of good process. Despite recent events, I am more confident in Shaw’s next 24 weeks than I am in PCA’s.
 

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 9, 2025 -- "Hits"

 

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The sport of baseball is in desperate need of more hits, though. The league is hitting .238 in the early going, and let’s go out on a limb and suggest that while that number will rise with the temperature, it’s in no danger of climbing above .250 no matter how many games the A’s play in Sacramento or what weird bats the Yankees bring to the plate. If so, this would the the fifth straight season in which the league batting average is under .250. (Actually the sixth, but 2020 never counts.) It would be the third time that’s ever happened.

 

Monday, April 7, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 7, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

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Royals 4, Orioles 1

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K
Bubic (W, 2-0)      6.2  5  1  1  1  8

The hardest thing in sports isn’t hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely. The hardest thing in sports is resisting the temptation to do a victory lap on your offseason calls 15 minutes into the new season. 

I loved Kris Bubic, who had Tommy John surgery after three starts in 2023 and looked great out of the pen for the Royals late last year, to make a leap this season. Yesterday, he shut down the Orioles in his second start, pushing his ERA up to 0.71 in the process. He’s whiffed just shy of a third of the batters he’s faced while walking just three of the 49. Batters aren’t squaring him up at all, with just two barrels and an anemic average exit velocity of 85 mph. The change that has always been his out pitch has been untouchable, with a 53% whiff rate, and he’s now using both a sweeper and a true slider, with great results.

The concern with Bubic is just going to be volume. His pro high in innings pitched is 149 1/3, and he threw 16 two years ago, 70 2/3 last year. The Royals have had a lot of success in recent seasons getting maximum volume from pitchers with similar backgrounds such as Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans. Bubic could be their second-best starter behind Ragans, it’s just a question of for how long.

 

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 6, 2025 -- "Fun With Numbers: Juiced?"

 

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To the extent that I have a concern about the 2025 season, it’s in that big drop in BABIP (.291 to .281) and the ongoing loss of hits on balls in play. It matches my observation, which is that the ongoing evolution of pitchers into witches, and the more recent trends of teams both optimizing defensive positioning and selecting for fielding skill over batting, are all choking off routes to scoring that aren’t home runs.

So far this year, 42% of runs have been scored on home runs. I can’t chop that down for the first ten days of a season, but I can tell you that figure was 37% last March and April, and 39% in March and April of 2023. I can tell you that there have been just three seasons in history in which that number has gone above 42%, all of which were much higher scoring (2017, 2019, and 2021) than the early days of 2025 are.
 

Friday, April 4, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 4, 2025 -- "Undefeated"

 

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That has not been the case down in San Diego, where the Padres rarely trailed in the first week of play. Their 7-0 start comes with the best run differential and best run prevention in baseball. Five teams have allowed more runs in a game than the Padres have allowed all season (11). (The Brewers have done it twice.) The Cubs’ Justin Steele has allowed more runs than the entire Padres staff has allowed. Michael King and Dylan Cease had rough debuts, but in the last five starts, one turn through the rotation, Pads starters allowed three runs in 29 1/3 innings. The Padres have been behind at the end of just two innings during that run. The leads those starters have handed over have been well-protected. Padres relievers have allowed two runs in 26 2/3 innings, fewest in baseball. They’ve stranded every one of the nine baserunners they’ve inherited. 

 
 
 

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, April 1, 2025 -- "Catching Up"

 

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In my ongoing effort to become rich and famous, here’s a fiery take on the bat: It’s just another step along the way. Given the restrictions in place -- and occasionally going outside of them -- batters have been trying to get the best performance out of bats since the game was called rounders. Bats used to be enormous pieces of wood, without much taper towards the handle. Players experimented with flat-sided bats for bunting, ones eventually banned. The weight of bats has steadily dwindled, as players trade off mass for bat speed. 
 
[...]
 
This isn’t a problem. I’m open to the idea that it could become one, though I doubt anything that helps hitters right now is something we should be attacking. It’s a welcome shift, honestly, to be talking about a way in which hitters might possibly even the field against pitches, these sweepers and deathballs and kick-changes, optimized to within an inch of their lives. Let the hitters fight back a bit. 
 
 

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Opening Day

 

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Opening Day
March 27, 2025

You’ll watch baseball today.

You’ll see Garrett Crochet whip 99 from that impossible arm angle, and Bryce Harper take a massive hack, and Pete Crow-Armstrong turn a double into an out.

The White Sox are tied for first. The Marlins are tied for first. The Pirates are tied for first.

Two Cy Young winners in Los Angeles. Two Rookies of the Year in Houston. Two Managers of the Year in San Diego.

You’ll watch baseball today.

You got the tickets back in January for you and your daughter, first-base side just like she prefers. Or you have a cave set up with enough screens -- and snacks -- to cover the 11 games happening by 4:30 p.m. Perhaps you’re stuck at work, sneaking peeks at your phone, hoping your guys get off to a 1-0 start, just this once.

Maybe Elly De La Cruz will steal two bases and your breath with them. Maybe Bobby Witt Jr. will go home to third in the time it took me to write it. Maybe Paul Skenes will take a no-hitter into the eighth.

You’ll watch baseball today.

You’ll throw on that Mitchell & Ness your sister got for you last Christmas. Pair it with that lucky hat you picked up the night they made that awesome comeback with the walkoff homer back in ’15. Your favorite Semien jersey. Your favorite Kershaw jersey. Your favorite Bonds jersey.

You’ll get off the 4 train, the Red Line, the Metro, you and 30,000 of your closest friends, all going to the same party.

You could eat a half-smoke. A brat. A Dodger Dog. A soft pretzel that never tastes better than at a ballgame. Ice cream in a helmet.

You’ll try not to, but you’ll be checking on your fantasy team, hoping Freddy Peralta stole a win or Bruce Bochy tipped his hand about his closer or Michael Harris II filled the box score. Some Angel hit two homers? Is he on the waiver wire?

No matter how we come to this great game, no matter how we love it, today is the day for all of us. There is no change in our world, our passionate, devoted, seamheaded world, quite like this one. It was not baseball season yesterday, and today, it is baseball season.  

We’ll watch baseball today.

Opening Day.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Season Preview 2025: #15, New York Yankees

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15. New York Yankees (84-78, fourth in AL East, 718 runs scored, 697 runs allowed). 

The Yankees did this already, surrounding Aaron Judge with a JV offense two years ago and nearly slipping under .500 for the first time since 1992. They corrected by renting Juan Soto for a year, and with Soto now a Met, they’re back where they started. This is a somewhat better lineup than in ’23, with 115 OPS+ types in Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., maybe Jasson Dominguez providing depth. It’s not the same as having Soto around, though, and I have them down 100 runs year over year. 

The pitching may not be good enough to support that, not down Gerrit Cole for the year, Luis Gil for a half, and Clarke Schmidt for the moment. Marcus Stroman went from the bullpen to the #3 starter just by standing around. Carlos Carrasco, who has a 5.32 ERA (4.65 FIP) since 2021 is the #5 starter. Three of the top six relievers are injured, and Ryan Yarbrough was just signed off the street to provide depth. A couple of years ago I was hammering home the point that the Yankees were more about preventing runs than scoring them; this year’s team is missing so many pieces it may not be able to do that as well.

For all the moves the Yankees made to replace Soto, all the money they invested, their chance to stay in the AL East race likely comes down to their homegrown players. Judge, obviously, but also Dominguez, the long-time prospect who is taking over in left field. Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, Ben Rice, and Oswaldo Cabrera are all in the projected starting lineup. That group has to be average, average-plus at the plate, as a group, to keep this offense above water. Throw in Will Warren as the #4 starter, and the 2025 Yankees open the year more reliant on their player development than they have been in a long time.

At the center of all this is Judge, who is about one good year from locking up a spot in the Hall of Fame. He’s put up two all-time seasons in the last three, notching two MVP awards in the process. Can he defy the history that says tall hitters don’t maintain their health or performance in their thirties? He’s already held his performance through 32, putting him on a very short...well, tall...list with Dave Winfield and Frank Howard. The Yankees’ hopes for ’25 are on Judge’s broad shoulders, and as much as I doubted him -- teammate Giancarlo Stanton shows why -- I’d like to be wrong. Few players are as watchable as Judge is.

Upside: The Yankees’ young players build on 2024’s work and form a 15-win core, keeping the team from needing to involve a weak bench and its limited internal depth. The lockdown bullpen does the rest on the way to 91-71 and a division title.

Downside: The loss of half a starting rotation is too much to bear, especially since neither Max Fried nor Carlos Rodon is a horse themselves. The floor here is high, but the team still misses the playoffs, and ends its 32-season streak of above-.500 seasons, at 79-83.

The Whole Hog: Anthony Volpe has been a top-70 player in his first two seasons, with one of the best defensive track records in the game, efficient baserunning, and durability. So why does it feel like he’s been a little disappointing? Volpe has been caught, at the plate, between Derek Jeter cosplay and putting his significant pull power to work. He has to resolve that, and for the latter, this year. Volpe has MVP-votes upside as soon as right now.

 
 
 

 

Monday, March 24, 2025

Season Preview 2025: #19, St. Louis Cardinals

 

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19. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80, fourth in NL Central, 688 runs scored, 706 runs allowed).

This is a lateral move from last year, which itself was a season in which the Cardinals wildly outplayed their underlying numbers. PECOTA and FanGraphs both have the Cards underwater, so what am I seeing, or maybe just missing?

I’m higher on the Cardinals’ young hitters, individually and collectively. With Victor Scott II winning the center field job, the Cards will have five players 25 and younger in their lineup most days, plus Lars Nootbaar at 27. The only thirtysomethings among the hitters will be Willson Contreras and, for the moment, Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals have more good young players than the Pirates, in year nine of their rebuild, have, and they have had just one year under .500 in all that time. I am bullish on Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, and for the 13th straight season, Nolan Gorman. The team’s decision to go with Scott in center is a strong one, as well.

I like the Cards’ pen a lot, which is one reason for the disconnect between the team’s projected run differential and its record. Seven of the top eight pitchers return from a pen that was 12th in fWAR a year ago, with Phil Maton taking Andrew Kittredge’s spot as the token ex-Ray. For the moment, Matthew Liberatore is in the rotation with Steven Matz in the bullpen, a probably easily solved by right-hander Michael McGreevy and an overdue willingness to eat Matz’s contract.

The rotation, no matter the #5, is weak spot. In addition to Matz, Miles Mikolas is someone who the team has to be willing to move on from. The Cards have a crop of arms on the brink of the majors, in particular lefty Quinn Matthews, who is a major-league starter right now. McGreevy, Tink Hence, and maybe Sam Robberse are in this mix. What we’re talking about here isn’t a player development decision, but a player selection one. Matz is already waiver bait, and Mikolas should only get maybe a month to show whether he is as well. Can the Cardinals bite the bullet on those salaries to make the on-field team better?

The bet here is that they do, and perhaps even go further and eat a lot of money to trade Arenado, which would clear the way for the team to move Gorman back to third, get their best defensive alignment on the field, and start the clock on the 2025-29 Cardinals, a team that should be very good.

Upside: The young hitters all take steps forward and the Cardinals front office shows a ruthlessness that hasn’t been there in the last 20 years, moving on from the veterans. It all adds up to a wild-card berth at 89-73.

Downside: The rotation doesn’t turn over, and a so-so defense is a poor match for the low-strikeout group. Too many games are out of reach early, and the Cards’ limp to a 76-86 finish after selling at the deadline.

The Whole Hog: The best shortstop arms I have ever seen were attached to Shawon Dunston and Andrelton Simmons. If I had to choose, I’d pick Dunston, but Simmons’s arm came with a stronger overall skill set. Take it seriously when I say Masyn Winn may be on that tier. He has an absolute cannon, and is closer as a complete defender to Simmons than he is to Dunston. When you can, catch some Cards games not for the spectacular, but for the routine throws by Winn. He’s got a gift.
 
 

Season Preview 2025: #25, Washington Nationals

 

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25. Washington Nationals (75-87, fourth in NL East, 695 runs scored, 749 runs allowed).

If I ran last year’s capsule in this space, would anyone notice? The Nationals have the same core of players, mostly from the Juan Soto trade, and the same lack of investment by ownership in putting talent around that core. Last year’s Joey Gallo is this year’s Josh Bell. Last year’s Nick Senzel is this year’s Amed Rosario. Last year I had them at 74-88, this year I have them at 75-87.

I start to run into the same problem with the Nationals that I have with the Pirates. If the team’s management doesn’t care, then why should I? What’s the point of investing time and words into the analysis of an organization that has punted on the prime directive: trying to win. It’s hard to believe this is the same group that signed Jayson Werth and Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, that won four division titles in six years, that won the World Series in 2019. It’s no longer enough to point out how much they lost to the pandemic. It’s 2025 now, that can’t be the excuse any longer.

Adding Bell and Rosario and Paul DeJong to what could be an amazing core is an abdication of responsibility to the players and to the fans. Even much of the secondary group is in place, with Luis Garcia Jr. and Jacob Young and Keibert Ruiz, flawed players who are nonetheless ready to be one- to three-win contributors around James Wood and Dylan Crews and MacKenzie Gore while making almost no money at all. The Nationals start with a group of pre-arb players, making around the minimum, who should be worth about 13 bWAR, and then Gore, Garcia, and Ruiz making less than $13 million combined for another ten or so bWAR. That’s 23 bWAR for less than $20 million, and if you can’t build a playoff contender when you start with that kind of advantage, you should give up your job.

I don’t know how the Nationals escape this cycle, but each year they don’t take advantage, the core gets a little older, and a little more expensive, and a little closer to deciding to go play for a franchise that wants to win.

Upside: The core plays so well that it blows past that conservative 23 bWAR estimate and carries the Nationals above .500 and, for much of the year, in the wild-card race before finishing 82-80.

Downside: The OBP risk carried by that core undercuts its production, the low-strikeout staff is exposed, and the team is irrelevant from the jump, dropping to 65-97.

The Whole Hog: It’s been a minute since my last trip to Nats Park, so I had to check whether Ben’s Chili Bowl is still there. The half-smoke with chili from Ben’s is the best hot dog I have had in any ballpark, and just writing this has me pulling up the Amtrak schedule to D.C. 

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

2025 Predictions

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AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Twins

AL West: Rangers

AL wild cards: Rays, Mariners, Orioles 

AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
AL Cy Young: Cole Ragans, Royals
AL Rookie of the Year: Kumar Rocker, Rangers


NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Dodgers

NL wild cards: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks

NL MVP: Kyle Tucker, Cubs
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
NL Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers

World Series: Dodgers over Rangers in five.


Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, March 18, 2025 -- "Season Preview 2025: Eating the Whole Hog"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

This week, take 20% off a one-year subscription to the Newsletter by using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Season Preview 2025: Eating the Whole Hog
March 17, 2024

As we approach Opening Day, I’ve been buried in projections and player comments and injury updates, working out my 2025 predictions for every team. It’s work, but it’s also fun being consumed by a project like this, wanting to get the best read on the upcoming campaign. A set of projections is necessarily outcome-focused, answering the questions of who is good and bad, who will be in or out of the tournament, and in the end, who is the best.

I’ve been thinking a lot about how I follow baseball once the season starts. When I came to the game, just four teams made the playoffs, and any team that did so had had a wildly successful campaign. The other 22, though, didn’t all deem their seasons a failure. We didn’t used to be so postseason-focused. I think that’s changed a lot, and it affects how I follow and cover the game, how we all experience it. There was a time when competing in an exciting playoff race was a successful season, or having a surprising .500 year out of nowhere, or even when a bad team -- say, the 1990 Yankees -- put some interesting young players on the field, even if those players didn’t end up with long careers. The point of the baseball season was the baseball season.

We celebrated so much more of baseball than we do today. Now, 12 teams make the playoffs and missing the postseason is largely cause for disdain. Even teams that make the playoffs can be deemed failures if they don’t advance far enough. The barriers to success are lower than ever, while the barriers to happiness seem higher than ever. We’re accelerating through the season; there will be trade-deadline talk, I guarantee you, before the end of April. We’ll spend July speculating about how trades will affect playoff rosters in October. Teams that fall out of the race early may as well drop into MLS for all we’ll care about them.

I don’t want to do that this year. I describe myself as a fan who enjoys the regular season more than the postseason, which is usually stated in the context of missing true races between good teams. There is more to it than that, though. I just like having baseball around every single day for six months. I like random day games on a Tuesday (hey, Tigers), and the hour leading up the 7 p.m. ET starts, and the way a Saturday can have games from 1 p.m. to midnight. I like Quick Pitch in the morning and Joe Davis at midnight. I like a surprising trade in April, a phenom called up in June, a vet coming off the IL in August.

There’s a great college football podcast called Split Zone Duo, one that is the current iteration of a pod chain dating back a decade with a variety of hosts. The two main ones now are Slate’s Alex Kirshner and CBS Sports’s Richard Johnson. One thing they like to say about their pod is that they “eat the whole hog” by covering everything from teams in the CFP to the ones in CUSA. They cover the games, the coaching carousel, recrui... excuse me, “crootin’”...all of it. They value the whole season and all the teams and all the things that make their game special. They have fun with all of it.

There are baseball writers who are excellent at this. Sam Miller is probably the best right now at noticing something random and making me care about it. Patrick Dubuque at BP has this talent. Davy Andrews at FanGraphs. Meg Rowley on Effectively Wild. I don’t mean swing changes or new pitches or how a manager is making out the lineup card so much as the little things, or even big things, that pop up when we get 2430 games over 186 days. The Cespedes Family BBQ guys have this club in their bag.

I want to do a better job of savoring the games as they are, not as part of the bigger stories. I want to get invested in some Padres/Dodgers matchup in the early going not because of its NL West implications or what early failure might mean to the Padres’ in-season decisions, but because it will be a good ballgame and I like baseball. The same goes for some light day in June when Nationals/Marlins is the only contest at 4 p.m. That’s baseball, too, and there are plenty of reasons to watch. I want to listen to more MLB games on the radio, and dip my toe into the college version a bit, and maybe keep a better eye out for the quirks that Sam and Patrick and Meg are always noticing. 

Forget whether any of this will make it into the Newsletter. Maybe some of it will, I don’t know. What I want, for myself and for you, is to enjoy these games as much as possible. We haven’t had real baseball in so long, and we’re about to get six months of it. It’s so much better than it was back in those 26-team days, too, because we can watch every game in high definition, and read so much more about them, and have access to the kind of information about the players 14-year-old Joe couldn’t have dreamed of. I’d have loved to have known Dave Righetti’s IVB, and Don Mattingly’s barrel rate, and Rickey Henderson’s sprint speed. 

You know, this could be the last untrammeled baseball season for a while. The 2026 campaign is unquestionably going to be played against the backdrop of a coming labor war, one that could cost us part or even all of 2027. Between the pandemic and the lockout and the rules changes, the 2020s have given us a lot of odd seasons, and that’s likely to continue. This one, though, this 2025 season, is on an island, far enough removed from the early part of the decade that the game has stabilized, and far enough ahead of 2027 to allow it to unfold without the cloud of an expiring CBA hanging over it.

This is the moment to appreciate our game, its players, and all the things we love about baseball, as baseball, without needing more meaning than that. There’s plenty of time to sweat the wild-card races and where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may end up and whether Shohei Ohtani can win a fourth MVP in five years. Those storylines, and more like them, are going to play out. Let’s appreciate everything that happens behind and around them, though. Let’s eat the whole hog.

Friday, March 14, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 14, 2025 -- "And Finally, the Giants"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The Giants didn’t need a $50 million decline phase on the left side of the infield. What they need is to build a homegrown core. Their fate under Posey depends a lot less on free agency than it does on player development, and I have no idea whether Posey can build the kind of infrastructure that the best organizations in baseball have. That’s what will determine his success as a GM. 
 

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 13, 2025 -- "Rafael Devers and the Red Sox"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Better late than never? Earlier today, Ian Browne reported that Devers said he will do “whatever they want me to do.” Devers, who has yet to play this spring, had initially objected to the idea of playing at DH after the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman. Bregman said he would play anywhere, most likely second base, that the Sox wanted him to play. Three weeks into the Grapefruit League, though, Bregman had yet to appear anywhere but the hot corner, making a move across the dirt less practical with each passing day.

Devers’s concession clears up the situation at third and DH, allowing the Sox to put their best defensive team on the field while maximizing Bregman’s value. It does, however, clog up the outfield corners. The hard part is over, but this remains a crowded roster with questions as to how it all fits together.

 
 

Newsletter Excerpt, March 13, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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I interpreted Rick N.’s mailbag question about excellent/good/acceptable/bad strikeout and walk rates to mean what would be an ideal mix for the watchability of the game. I was very confused by your answer until I figured out that I misinterpreted the question.

Got me thinking though -- what do you think would be an ideal rate of strikeouts and walks for watchability?

-- Matt H.

I don’t think you can realistically get strikeout rates down much lower than 20% without moving the mound back, and I’d take that. I do think the balance in the 2000s — 17% K rate, 7-8% walk rate — is around optimal. I talk about the 1980s a lot, but between the absence of turf and the raw talent of players, you’re never getting back to that kind of sport. If we could have 17% K, 8% BB, .325 BACon, .510 SLGcon, 3% HR rate, we’d be around the most watchable version of the game.

--J.

 
 
 

Monday, March 10, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, March 11, 2025 --"Running Out of Header Ideas...Phillies and Orioles"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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Once again, the Phillies show remarkable year-over-year stability. Their top 11 players by playing time all return, with 93% of last year’s plate appearances still with the Phillies. In fact, eight of the 12 players who batted in the 2022 World Series for the Phillies are still around. John Middleton made some loud noises in November, but in the end, he brought back the team that won 95 games even after its disappointing exit. This team, though, is one of the oldest in the sport, and a window that opened in ’22 is slowly closing.