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You can see where the idea would be seductive. A pitcher can give up some performance equity by starting a batter 1-0, but as we saw above that’s unlikely to change the outcome of a game. Again, in just one of the cited instances did the game state change with Clase pitching, and that was the one in which Clase intended to throw a strike and did, retiring the batter in question. Porter and Rozier would let their confederates know they were planning to exit games early with injuries, allowing under bets on their statistics to hit. Freeman went the other way, intending to hit his overs, something he controlled as a high-usage star on a mediocre team.
Everyone in that paragraph got caught.
I am no longer sure that means the system is working. There are too many markets, too many players, too many points of weakness in the system. Microbetting introduces temptation for everyone, and rigging one pitch or one jump shot or one bad pass is easier for a player to justify to himself than shaving points or throwing a game. MLB made a big deal yesterday of partnering with betting companies to limit pitch bets to $200 a pop and not allow parlays on them. It addresses the specifics of the alleged wrongdoing by Clase and Ortiz, but it fails to do anything about the larger issues of microbetting.
