Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Newsletter Excerpt, June 18, 2025 -- "NL Central Notes"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers’ headache dump of Aaron Civale -- hey, go enjoy being a White Sock! -- was mean. Civale, though, simply overestimated his value. Despite occasionally impressive ERAs, he’s a #4 starter at best, and he has a better chance of falling out of the league than starting another playoff game. He’s now been traded in three straight seasons, and his FIP has climbed from 3.57 to 4.74 to 5.21 in that time. That guy doesn’t get to dictate his usage.

The Brewers, again in contention with a fairly anonymous roster, have too many good starting pitchers. They’ve already been jerking around rookie righty Logan Henderson, who despite a 1.71 ERA (3.02 FIP) in four starts, hasn’t been able to keep his roster spot. Last Thursday the team called up power arm Jacob Misiorowski, who had been whiffing nearly a third of the batters he faced in Triple-A. He sat 99, touched 102, got 13 swings-and-misses on 37 swings and generally abused the Cardinals in five no-hit innings.

Those two aren’t even the most productive rookies. Chad Patrick, a 26-year-old in his third organization, leads the NL in starts and all NL rookies in fWAR, coming out of nowhere to be the Brewers’ #2 starter this year. The Brewers, led by Patrick, have gotten more value from rookie pitchers than anyone but the White Sox and Dodgers. More importantly, they enabled me to create a list, in the year 2025, on which the White Sox and Dodgers are the top two teams.

Strange Bedfellows (most fWAR by rookie pitchers, 2025)

             ERA    FIP   fWAR
White Sox   3.70   4.20    2.2
Dodgers     4.37   3.80    2.0
Brewers     4.73   4.41    1.6
Yankees     4.56   3.29    1.5
Astros      4.92   4.38    1.1


The Brewers have become a pitching-development machine, whether it’s with castoffs like Patrick and Tobias Myers or with their own prospects like Henderson and Misiorowski. This ground gets even more crowded in the second half, when Brandon Woodruff, who has been a bit snakebit in his rehab stints, joins the group. A rotation of Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski, and Henderson, with Patrick, Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, maybe even Nestor Cortes around for depth, is one that could find its way back to the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.