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16. Houston Astros (64-51, third-order 62-54, first in AL West, 84.9% playoff odds)
Added: Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez, Ramon Urias
Subtracted: Ryan Gusto
So this is when I circle back to first principles. Whenever it’s reasonable to do so. I prefer to stick to my preseason projections, and I am going to do so here. I had the Astros finishing third behind the Rangers and Mariners in March, and that’s where I’ll leave them today.
This takes nothing away from my opinion of Joe Espada’s work. He has the Astros in first place giving 300 PA to Victor Caratini and Mauricio Dubon, a hundred to Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammell. Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, and Brandon Walter are 3-4-5 on the Astros in innings pitched. Isaac Paredes is done for the year, Yordan Alvarez has been a zero, and let’s not forget that the team lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason. Espada is my AL Manager of the Year.
With all that said, I don’t think the Astros, whose lead is down to 1 1/2 games in the division and 4 1/2 for any playoff spot, can hold on. The rosters of the Mariners and Rangers are just better, and not by a little bit. The Astros did buy at the deadline, but the players they added, Carlos Correa and Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, are just average. Paredes to Correa at third base is a big downgrade, even if it’s less of one than Paredes to Shea Whitcomb. I do give Jim Crane credit for taking on $70 million in salary over three years for Correa, but that willingness to spend money would have been more helpful in extending Tucker or re-signing Bregman than bringing back a banged-up two-win player.
I said on KZNE the other day the Astros had a grade-B deadline, largely because they didn’t give up anything they will miss, and Correa and Sanchez are better than what they had. I just think they needed an A deadline. They simply don’t have the prospects to do that, and it’s going to take a lot of draft/international signings for them to build the farm system back up. They needed one more big deal, either for a lefty bat or a starting pitcher, and they couldn’t pull it off.
The Astros have lost 16 of 25 games, as the bullpen that had been so critical to them begins to leak oil: 28th in fWAR in the second half. They have a tough week ahead, with a trip to Yankee Stadium and then a home series against the Red Sox. The schedule is a mixed bag after that. Two years ago, the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners had a lot of late series with each other. This time around, the Astros have just three games left with the Mariners, seven with the Rangers, and they spend their last week on the road at Sacramento and Anaheim. That penultimate week, the team’s final homestand against the Rangers and Mariners the week of September 15, could be their entire season.
Why Watch? This section gets a little silly the deeper we go. The Astros are in first place with one of the best 1-2 pitching combos in baseball, at least one future Hall of Famer in Jose Altuve, an electric saves guy in Josh Hader, and hopefully a healthy Alvarez in September.
