Thursday, January 22, 2026

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, January 22, 2026 -- "Queens Night Market"

 

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It was the second Mets trade that caused a lot of chatter, and they weren’t even the main character in it. As had been anticipated for a while, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta in the final year of his deal. They got infielder -- probably -- Jett Williams and right-hander Brandon Sproat. The two enter the Brewers’ system at #3 and #6 per Pipeline, and they will rank #46 and #71 on the upcoming Baseball Prospectus Top 101. These are real prospects, if ones with a bit less shine than they had a year ago.

In Peralta, the Mets get a starter who by the ridiculous standards of 2026 is a workhorse. Over the last three seasons, Peralta is tied for fifth in starts (95) and is 15th in innings pitched (516). He hasn’t missed a start in three years. That kind of availability is valuable to a Mets team that lacks it. They will be breaking in young arms, leaning on converted relievers, and hoping the healthy Kodai Senga returns from war. Peralta, with the usual caveats about pitchers, should stabilize that situation. The Mets needed what he brings to the table.

So why wouldn’t the Brewers, also contenders, coming off a season in which they had the best record in baseball, hold him? Peralta will make just $8 million this year, chump change by baseball standards, so it can’t be a payroll concern. What it is, rather, is the same thing that motivated them to trade Corbin Burnes two years ago: to get something for a player likely to leave in free agency. Burnes brought back a similar package, in fact, shortstop Joey Ortiz and lefty DL Hall.

Peralta, though, is no Burnes.

More Like Ace-Jack Suited (Burnes and Peralta, trade year and three-year stats)

                   GS     IP     ERA    FIP   xERA   bWAR   fWAR
Burnes 2023        32  193.2    3.39   3.81   3.38    3.5    3.4
Peralta 2025       33  176.2    2.70   3.64   3.47    5.5    3.6

                   GS     IP     ERA    FIP   xERA   bWAR   fWAR
Burnes 2021-23     93  562.2    2.94   2.92   ----*  13.1   15.5
Peralta 2023-25    95  516.0    3.40   3.88   ----*  10.0    8.9

*I can’t figure out how to get xERA over multiple seasons. Surely user error.


Burnes was a superstar when the Brewers traded him, with a Cy Young in his pocket and votes in four straight seasons. Peralta has gotten votes in one year, last year, finishing fifth. Peralta does throw a fair amount of innings, but in that time he’s tenth in ERA (min. 400 IP), 30th in FIP, 12th in bWAR, 19th in fWAR. That’s a good pitcher. It’s not an ace. This isn’t the Burnes trade.

I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth a little bit here, saying Peralta is what the Mets need while downplaying his importance to the Brewers. The Brewers’ projected rotation, down through the #8 spot or so, includes two pitchers who threw 150 innings last year, just three who have ever done so. It’s not like 150 innings of Freddy Peralta would hurt them. Pick your projection system: They all say the Brewers have to replace about three wins now. 

I just think they’re capable of doing that. Even throwing Tobias Myers into this deal, the Brewers have enviable pitching depth. They’ll get more from Jacob Misiorowski this year, more from Logan Henderson, probably more from Brandon Woodruff. Sproat, who reached the majors late in 2025 and had a 2.80 FIP in four starts, will be part of the mix. A top-50 prospect a year ago, Sproat was a mess at Triple-A for two months before he got straightened out.

The other prospect in the deal, Jett Williams, is in a tough spot, jammed between a good infield ahead of him in Milwaukee and some of the game’s best infield prospects in Jesus Made and Luis Peña behind him in Double-A and high-A. Like Carson Benge, Williams raked at Double-A before hitting the wall after a promotion to Triple-A. That’s probably where he starts 2026, and he needs to play well to avoid getting lapped by Made and Peña by the end of the season.

Look, I think teams should spend more money on players than they do, and the Brewers are going backward in this area. However, there has to be room to consider a bigger picture. Peralta isn’t an ace, and trading one year of his three-win work in return for potentially 12 years of Williams and Sproat is a good deal. Not everything maps to the money wars. The Brewers can replace Peralta’s work with the players they have on hand. Would I like to see them now sign Framber Valdez, especially with their infield defense? Absolutely. I’m OK with them stopping here, though. Forget the money -- the Brewers took a small short-term hit, and maybe not even that, for a big medium-term return.