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There’s a point at which patience becomes passivity. We don’t talk about it as much as we used to, because we have more granular tools, but back in the day we would discuss how older players’ walk rates would sometimes spike just before the players collapsed entirely. The idea was that hitters who knew they couldn’t quite get to all pitches would hunt the ones they could hit hard. This would produce more walks, but it was often a sign that the players were about to age out of the league.
Bregman may lead the league in this stat I’ve made up, but it’s not like he’s doing much differently than he has in recent seasons. Bregman’s take rate outside of two-strike counts was seventh in the league last year (76.6%), 30th in 2024 (73.1%), 16th in 2023 (75.4%). You can see a trend if you really want to, and I’m curious to see where his 2026 approach goes, but it’s hard to reach a conclusion yet. The catch is Bregman is pairing this passivity with a decline in batted-ball quality. His expected slugging has bled seven points a year and has collapsed to .363 in the early going. His hard-hit rate is actually going up, but the baseball isn’t, as Bregman is posting the highest groundball rate of his career (48%).
