This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95
using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)
--
The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Memorial Day Check-In, Pt. 1
Vol. 18, No. 36
May 25, 2026
For much of baseball history, Memorial Day was a big deal, a day for doubleheaders, a day for measuring yourself, a mile marker along the path of the baseball season. It came earlier in the season, too. In 1996, to pick a year, the Yankees played their 47th game on Memorial Day. They’ll play their 54th today. In the bicentennial year of 1976, they were playing just their 41st game of the year on a late Memorial Day, May 31. With an interleague trade deadline of June 15 for much of the 20th century, there was a bit more pressure to figure out what you were in the season’s first six weeks.
We start the season closer to St. Patrick’s Day now. Doubleheaders have gone the way of the dodo, and we’re about at the one-third mark of the season today. Still, it’s a good day to take stock. So with a nagging sense that I’m ripping off Joe Posnanski, here’s a Memorial Day check-in. Teams are listed in order of 2026 record.
Tampa Bay Rays (34-16): They’re not the best team in baseball, but they do have the best record, thanks in part to a 10-3 mark in 1/x games. After some early bumps, they have a top-ten bullpen over the last 30 days, and overall a 1.89 ERA in that time, leading all of MLB. I mentioned their strange infield/outfield split a couple of weeks ago, with an excellent defensive outfield playing behind a sieve of an infield. We’ll see how long they try to carry zeroes at shortstop (Taylor Walls) and center (Cedric Mullins) to protect their run prevention. Their need for offense grows as Chandler Simpson’s hot start (.411/.441/.482 through April 12) devolves into something ugly (.234/.267/.277 since then).
Atlanta Braves (36-18): The year’s most pleasant story, the Braves have the best record in the NL despite a series of injuries that has chased them through spring training and into the season. Both frontline catchers, Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, are currently on the IL. Alex Anthopoulos’s seemingly shaky offseason has paid off, though, as Dominic Smith, Martin Perez, and Mauricio Dubon have all come through in bigger roles than they were expected to have. The core of the 2023 team has bounced back, with Matt Olson an MVP candidate, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II having good years, and Spencer Strider seemingly healthy again. No team has a bigger lead, nine games, in its division.
Los Angeles Dodgers (33-20): They’re doing their Dodger thing, rotating the healthy pitchers through the roster and being cautious with everyone else. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Edwin Diaz are currently on the IL, and yet they’re still second in baseball in pitching WAR per FanGraphs, second in ERA, fourth in FIP. They have, statistically, the best offense in baseball, but cracks are appearing. Mookie Betts is hitting .171/.241/.355 wrapped around six weeks off with an oblique strain. Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Kyle Tucker, and even Shohei Ohtani are all a bit below expectations. The Dodgers are on a 101-win pace and it feels like they’re still in spring training.
Milwaukee Brewers (30-20): It’s silly to be surprised any more. The Brewers keep developing pitchers, if perhaps with a slightly higher rate of failure this year, and getting more from their offense than they should. No team in baseball has outscored their expected runs by more than the Brewers’ +19; only the Diamondbacks have improved with runners in scoring position more than the Brewers have. They need that sequencing, because overall it’s an average offense with less power, a .115 SLG, than any team in baseball. We saw last October how a long-sequence offense can sputter against high-end pitching.
San Diego Padres (31-21): No team in baseball has a larger gap between its record and its underlying performance (24-28) by third-order record. We went through a whole cycle of Padres narratives in 2023 and 2024, when the perception of their seasons flipped based entirely on a handful of extra innings. This time through, there’s nothing that clear; the Padres are just 8-5 in 1/x games. The trick seems to be in employing Mason Miller and a great support system for him. The Padres have the best mark in the game when tied or leading after seven innings -- 27-2. No team has lost fewer games from that position. They’ve kept the ship afloat despite one of the worst offenses in baseball, as their top three players, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Manny Machado, have been terrible. This won’t hold until those three return to form.
New York Yankees (31-22): It’s not quite a reprise of Aaron and the Judgettes, but it can feel that way at times. The Yankees are a top-six team despite carrying some zeroes in the lineup and lacking the dominant bullpen they’ve often had in recent years. What’s holding it together is the best starting rotation in baseball, a mix of homegrown arms (Cam Schlittler, Will Warren), big-time free agents (Max Fried, four starts from Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole) and the latest Brian Cashman find (Ryan Weathers). Look for another active trade deadline to patch the issues at third base, in center, and in the bullpen.
Cleveland Guardians (32-23): Under .500 a bit more than four weeks ago. the Guardians have gone 17-7 since then, taking advantage of a soft May slate early, then sweeping the Tigers in a four-game set in Detroit before taking two of three from the Phillies at CBP. They’re 4-1 in their last five games while scoring eight total runs in the first nine innings, as Guardsball as it gets. They’re the only team in baseball that’s stayed on rotation all year, using just five starting pitchers 11 times each. That kind of health, stability, and effectiveness -- all five have between a 3.05 and a 4.69 FIP -- could well be enough to fend off the rest of the clown car that is the AL Central.
St. Louis Cardinals (29-22): The first true surprise, the Cardinals have the eighth-best record in baseball while outscoring their opponents by one (1) run. They’re 7-2 in extra-inning games and 12-4 in 1/x games despite a bad bullpen (25th in fWAR, 22nd in ERA and FIP). Like the Guardians, they’ve had remarkable stability, using five starters for 50 of their 51 starts, though at a lower level of performance. Only Dustin May, at 3.90, has a FIP below 4.00. The offense, with a breakout by Jordan Walker (.302/.372/.594) and a Rookie of the Year candidate (JJ Wetherholt), is carrying the show. They’re the first team in today’s Newsletter that I cannot see holding it together.
Chicago Cubs (29-24): To quote Annie Savoy, “This is the damndest season I’ve ever seen.” The Cubs have two ten-game winning streaks and an eight-game losing streak in just two months. The last of those is active after they got swept at home by the Astros, who aren’t going to be mentioned again for a lot of paragraphs, this weekend. The underlying numbers say they’re fine at 30-24 third-order. I worry a little about the lack of any superstar hitters or starting pitchers. The Cubs’ best players are do-it-all-or-at-least-most-of-it guys like Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman. They don’t have a scary monster in the lineup, they don’t have a #1 or really a #2-caliber starting pitcher, and they don’t have a Mason Miller at the back end of the pen. They could use someone to win a game for them by himself right now, and they don’t have that guy.
Arizona Diamondbacks (28-24): From a few weeks back in Gaming: “They play the Rockies twice and the Giants twice, two full weeks of those two teams in the middle of the month.” The Diamondbacks, three series through that four-series run, are 8-2 against the dregs of the NL West and are up to 28-24, right in the NL wild-card mix. Corbin Carroll is an MVP candidate, Nolan Arenado is having a dead-cat bounce, and rookie Ryan Waldschmidt has a .411 OBP since his call-up. Even with all that, the offense is just a tick above average, dragged down by a miserable bench. There may not be a team in baseball that looks more like it was expected to look back in March. Watch for Corbin Burnes, set to return sometime this summer and upgrade a weak rotation.
Cincinnati Reds (27-25): They’ve been outscored by 34 runs. A silly start to the season in which they went 9-0 in 1/x games is still propping up the record. Since a rain-delayed comeback walk-off win over the Tigers on April 24, they’re 2-6 in 1/x games. They can’t hit, 22nd in wRC+ with four zeroes in the lineup on any given day. They’re missing 40% of a good rotation in Hunter Greene and Rhett Lowder, and there isn’t a single above-average relief pitcher on the team. There’s some massive collapse risk here.
Sacramento Athletics (27-26): One of the many annoying things about the A’s arc the last few years is that had John Fisher not been allowed to execute this plan, had he just stayed in Oakland, even in the Coliseum, he’d have been fine. This roster full of young hitters would have brought plenty of people to the park, as competitive A’s teams had been doing for more than 50 years. Instead, Nick Kurtz and Co. are being squandered in Sacramento, where there’s no loyalty to reward or to build during a three-year stint in purgatory. The A’s, in first place by 2 1/2 games today, probably can’t hold off the Mariners, but when you look at the state of the AL, it is going to be hard for them to fall out of the wild-card race even given the roster’s flaws. They are genuinely fun to watch.
Pittsburgh Pirates (27-26): A reader of mine, a Pirates fan, pings me whenever the Bucs have one of their offensive explosions. They’re on pace to blow past my projection of 608 runs scored by mid-August. They’re getting plus performance from seven lineup spots, including rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin (.266/.323/.391, 12/1 SB/CS). Products of the farm system (Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales), trades (Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe), and free agency (Ryan O’Hearn) are all contributing, giving the lineup length it hasn’t had in a long time. They’re another team that’s had a very stable rotation, essentially five starters all year (with two openers and a bullpen game). The bullpen isn’t good, though, so any time Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, and Carmen Mlodzinski exit, the game is at risk. The Pirates have lost four games they led after seven innings; only the Tigers have more losses from that spot.
Chicago White Sox (26-26): I should probably put the Sox under the microscope soon. They hit Memorial Day at .500 after their best two months of ball in a long time. It’s a bit of a mirage, with a 24-28 third-order mark and a thin pitching staff and outfield. Munetaka Murakami has been as good as you could hope for; even slowing down in May has meant a .233/.378/.479 line. The Sox have seen a number of their “older young” players break out, from Miguel Vargas to Davis Martin to Everson Pereira. Still, this team isn’t built to win this year, and the Kyle Teel injuries take away a key advantage at a low-production position. The 2026 Sox are proof of concept, however, and set up some 2027-30 contenders.
Washington Nationals (27-27): The last .500 team in the league is not quite a mirage, with matching 27-27 real and third-order records. The Nats have had a top-five offense, covering for some of the worst run prevention in the league: 26th in ERA, 28th in FIP, 26th in Outs Above Average defensively. The remaining pieces of the Juan Soto trade, CJ Abrams and James Wood, deserve All-Star slots, and no-cost pickups Joey Weimer and Curtis Mead have lengthened the lineup. Even a bullpen I have dunked on all year is up to 18th in FanGraphs WAR in May. I still think more trades are in order, and trust Paul Toboni to stay the course and not get caught up in a quixotic run at a wild-card berth.
