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So what does this all mean? I thought, writing this, the answer might lie in walk rate. Last year, though, the Pirates walked 9% of the time, and this year it’s 10%. They ranked exactly eighth in both years. They’re striking out at about the same rate as they did last year. Their team barrel rate is slightly higher, less than half of 1%, and it’s not in the underlying swing data; they’re chasing more while also swinging at pitches in the zone more. Statcast agrees they’ve had a better quality of batted balls this year ( +.011 xBA, +.025 xSLG), but that doesn’t explain being up 30 points of average and 50 points of slugging on the field.
I still question the process. The team’s two best hitters are 31-year-olds having their best seasons since they were 27. The fifth-best hitter is 32 and matching his career-high wRC+ from last year, with shaky underpinnings. Behind that, though, there are some wins in Horwitz, a low-cost, low-profile trade pickup, and the decision to promote and play Griffin. Oneil Cruz is having what a good Oneil Cruz year will look like.
