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Diamondbacks (54-49) at Nationals (52-51)
The Nationals are the Pirates without the starting pitching: Surprisingly strong offense, bad bullpen. They’ve made it work to reach the end of July in the best place they’ve been since 2019. It’s not a fluke; the Nats have outscored their opponents and have a 53-50 third-order record.
So why don’t I believe? Because my read is that the front office doesn’t. The new regime, led by Paul Toboni, went into a rebuild, trading away MacKenzie Gore for a volume package and sitting out the offseason. It would be a shift for them to now burn prospects for relief pitching to chase, in all likelihood, a #6 seed. There’s so much good stuff happening here, according to plan, which is why they’re 52-51. When I look at Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell, though, I just can’t buy in all the way.
The Nats may get trapped by the standings, and yes, that’s a phrase I expect to use a lot this week. It’s very hard to sell, or even just not buy, when you’re a doubleheader sweep out of a wild-card berth. So this series, against a Snakes team four games ahead of them in the standings but three games worse by third-order record, has outsized importance. The Nats are also up 2-1 in the season series and can lock up the tiebreaker by taking two games.
The Diamondbacks, who seem to be in this spot every year, have won nine of 11 and now hold the #3 wild-card slot, barely ahead of a whole pack. They can only win a wild-card slot, with the Dodgers running away with the NL West. It’s a bit of a mystery how they’re here: 24th in wRC+, 26th in starters’ FIP, 13th in relievers’ FIP. They’re just 18-15 in one-run games and 19-17 in 1/x games, so they’re not getting exceptionally lucky. Taking three of four, including a makeup game in St. Louis, from the Cardinals over the last week has solidified their position.
With Corbin Burnes now a September dream if he returns at all this year, and Michael Soroka out well into August, the Diamondbacks will need a starting pitcher. This weekend, they’re starting two of the three pitchers, Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, they got for Merrill Kelly at last year’s deadline. They could use a hitter at any of the hitting positions -- first base, DH, left field -- as well. I’m not buying Max Kepler.
This is a critical series. The Diamondbacks are probably a buyer, and I have had them as a playoff team all year. They go from D.C. to Pittsburgh. Playing six good games can give them some real separation from two chasers, even potentially turn those opponents into sellers.
Friday: Diamondbacks (Rodriguez) at Nationals (Palmquist/Littell), 6:45 ET, local RSNs
Saturday: Diamondbacks (Bratt) at Nationals (Griffin), 4:05 ET, local RSNs
Sunday: Diamondbacks (Drake) at Nationals (Mikolas), 1:35 ET, local RSNs
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