This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
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18. Atlanta Braves (71-47, first in NL East, third in MLB, +120 run differential). I thought the Braves’ run was coming to an end in June, saying a few times that I expected the Phillies to catch them. They went into the break losing 19 of 29. They came out of it on fire. Only the Red Sox are slugging better than the Braves’ .460, and no team has more homers. That’s helped them be a top-ten offense in support of a top-five rotation. The Braves now have an 8 1/2-game lead over the Phillies and are in position to get a first-round bye in the NL.
So it was a mild surprise to see Alex Anthopoulos mostly take the deadline off. His hands are tied a bit by a weak farm system and the team’s long-term commitments to, well, everyone. Lane Thomas fills a real need for a lefty-smashing outfielder, and Brent Suter is a useful piece out of the pen. To add only Tyler Mahle when there were so many starters on the move, though, was disappointing. Anthopoulos seems to be making a very big bet that both AJ Smith-Shawver and Spencer Schwellenbach will contribute down the stretch. The Braves have just one starter, Chris Sale, with a FIP below 4.21. Sale is at 123 innings pitched and hasn’t gotten to 180 since 2017. The only time since 2019 that he threw 170 innings, in 2024, he wasn’t able to pitch in the playoffs. Sale is one of the best per-inning pitchers of his era; he just can’t be counted on to work deep into seasons.
The other concern is the bullpen, which has regressed from first in the league in FanGraphs WAR in the first half to 27th. The absence of Robert Suarez has pushed everyone up a slot, exposing journeymen Tyler Kinley (7.31 FIP since the break) and Danny Young (7.18). Raisel Iglesias has lost velocity and his walk rate has nearly doubled. Again, Anthopoulos can look to the returns of Suarez and Reynaldo Lopez, but that just adds to the bets he’s making on pitcher health.
The Braves now have enough of a cushion that they can sort out their pitching over the next seven weeks. Their offense is what it is, though, a power-over-OBP group that, come October, will be the poster children for “ball go far, team go far.”
One Stat: The Braves’ team SLG, .419, is 106 points higher than its OBP, .313. Only the Nationals, at 111 points, have a higher gap between those figures.
Reason to Watch: A Braves team with Sale, Schwellenbach, Suarez and Ronald Acuña Jr. all healthy and firing would be the top challenger to the Dodgers in all of MLB. We just have yet to see that group play together.
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