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AB R H BI
France 1B 4 0 1 0
So let’s start here: Ty France’s boxscore line probably would not have changed even if his ninth-inning fly ball had not hit a part of American Family Field’s roof. The ball, hit at 105.3 mph off the bat at a 49-degree angle, was highly unlikely to leave the yard. Statcast had it an expected batting average of .050, and a homer only in Daikin Park, home of the Crawford boxes. Go digging a bit, you find that balls hit at a 49-degree angle almost never become homers, and when they do, they’re hit harder, or in an unusual ballpark, or aided by wind. This isn’t “it would have been impossible for it to be a homer,” but rather, “all of the evidence we have suggests that it would have been highly unlikely.”
So why the big hullaballoo? The booth. Going off their eyes and France’s reaction, color analysts A.J. Pierzynski and Adam Wainwright very quickly decided that France’s ball, unimpeded, would have left the yard. Their reactions set the tone for the public conversation. They were wrong.
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