Saturday, January 23, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, January 23, 2021 -- "Financial Flexibility and the Braves"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"The one team that does truly make use of financial flexibility, however, is the Braves. With a homegrown core signed to contracts that underpay them for their performance, the Braves have eschewed long-term deals for free agents in lieu of picking up good players for a single season. In 2017, it was R.A. Dickey for one year and $8 million. In 2019, they signed Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal for $23 million, then at midseason grabbed Dallas Keuchel for the rest of the season and $13 million. Last year, it was Marcell Ozuna for one year and $18 million, and he might have been the league MVP had his teammate, Freddie Freeman not been."
 
 

Henry Aaron, 1934-2021

 

We’ve all seen the clip, of course. Milo Hamilton letting us know that he was “sitting on 714.” The aging slugger, the roaring crowd, the lefty on the mound standing athwart history. The fastball up, the big swing, the left fielder climbing the fence, the bullpen pitchers going wild.

The next thing you see is that Black man rounding second base, and as he does, young white men appear in the frame, chasing him, come not to bury but to praise him. In that moment, though, Aaron could not have known that. What he knew in that moment is that many, many white men had written to him, slurred him, threatened his family, threatened to take away his life for having the temerity to be both Black and great at the same time in America.

What’s a bad day for you at work? Too much to be done in too little time, perhaps, or feeling underpaid and underappreciated. Maybe someone else got the promotion, the bigger office, the bigger check. Maybe you made a mistake, measured once and cut twice, or thought it was “lefty loosey righty tighty” and now you’re shins deep in what is probably water but you can’t be sure. That’s a bad day. Maybe you got fired. That’s a very bad day.

Henry Aaron’s bad days had death threats. Hank Aaron’s bad days involved the FBI, and private security, and worrying whether someone was going to kill his kids. As it became clear, in 1973, that Aaron was going to set the all-time home-run record, the wave of hatred visited upon him grew. In the middle of all that, at 39 years old, with five children and soon a new wife, Aaron was the second-best player on his team, hitting 40 home runs.

I watch that clip, Aaron being chased by two young white men on a spring night in the South, white men who for all he knew wrote some of those letters, white men like the white men who had been chasing Black men in the South for a hundred years, not to pat their backs but to put them on their backs, not to celebrate their lives but to end them. Aaron couldn’t have known who these men were or what they wanted. He’d have been well within his rights to slug them, to curse them, to assume they were a threat to him.

Aaron accepted their congratulations, lightly shook them off, and continued toward third base, then on to home, and into the history books.

I wonder sometimes what Aaron’s life would have been like had the Braves never left Milwaukee. He and the ballclub both arrived there in 1954 1957, Aaron from A ball by way of the Negro American League and Mobile, Ala., the Braves by way of Boston. For a few years there they both had it good. Aaron won the NL MVP award in 1954, the Braves won the World Series in 1957. A few years later, though, the fans stopped coming, even to see one of the game’s true superstars, and in 1966 the Braves made their second move in 12 years, to Atlanta.

Aaron had 398 homers at that point, still putting up superstar seasons, well on his way to the Hall of Fame. Had the Brewers stuck around in Milwaukee, though, he’d have continued playing in a park that was poor-to-middling for a hitter, gone through Deadball II in the late 1960s there, maybe seen his numbers slide. Moving to a great hitter’s park in Atlanta, though, deemed the Launching Pad, helped him lead the NL in homers in 1966 and 1967, helped him come out of the low-offense era with 44 homers and a third-place MVP finish in 1969. In 1971 he hit 47 homers and again finished third in the MVP voting, moving to within 75 homers of Ruth’s 714. Aaron hit 241 home runs in his first six seasons in Atlanta, his age 32 through 37 seasons, an accomplishment only Ruth himself (296) had ever bested.

Maybe in Milwaukee, he has 25 or 30 fewer homers at this point, and projected to five or so fewer a year going forward. Maybe the team continues to trundle along, drawing poorly, the memories of 1957 and 1958 fading. Maybe it’s not as much fun to play baseball, and even the coming of the designated hitter rule isn’t much of an enticement. What if Aaron had caught Willie Mays with 661 homers in 1973 or 1974 and decided that was enough, retiring as one of the five or six best players ever, never challenging Ruth, never chasing a hallowed record as a Black man in the South? What if there had been no letters, no threats, no fear?

We honor Aaron for the strength he had to show, but no one should have to show the strength that he showed.

Aaron’s breaking the record and eventually retiring as the game’s home-run king warped his position in history as well. That clip, that swing, that trip around the bases...it’s what we remember. It overwhelms everything else. The image of a 39-year-old man with a 39-year-old body loping around the bases does Aaron an injustice. Had Aaron finished his career as a Milwaukee Brave, short of 700 homers, would other images come to mind more easily? The wristy pull power? The strong arm and excellent range in right field? That Aaron was once a 30/30 man before we cared about those numbers? Would we remember the man and the player more than we do one number, one home run?  Aaron was probably the second-best player who had ever lived when he retired, only his peer Mays on his level.

Henry Aaron is one of the best baseball players ever, and he endured more to be part of that group than any player ever did. May he rest in peace.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, January 21, 2021 -- "George Springer and the Blue Jays"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"This could go either way. The Jays could stick with what they have, throw defense out the window and hope to score enough to make it not matter. They could also sign a plus defender at center or third, push everyone down and have two good hitters on the bench most days. Had they signed Michael Brantley, which was the hot rumor 24 hours ago, they’d have exacerbated the lineup problem while giving the offense the exact kind of .290/.360/.450 lefty hitter it needs."
 

Monday, January 18, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, January 18, 2021 -- "DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"What’s most impressive, and the biggest reason to like this deal, is LeMahieu’s contact rate. LeMahieu has the 14th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball the last two years, and his combination of contact and power is rare -- among the top 25 players in contact rate, just six have slugged at least .500. LeMahieu, since turning 30, has a much better contact rate than he did in Colorado, and better than even his best couple of years with the Rockies. Everyone else is striking out more, and LeMahieu is striking out less."
 
 
 
 

Friday, January 15, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, January 15, 2021 -- "From the Archives: Chief Baseball Officer"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"With that said, though, hiring Epstein is the first signal we’ve gotten from MLB that it recognizes that pushing a 25% strikeout rate, with close to half of all runs scored on home runs, is a potential problem. In hiring Epstein to focus on gameplay, those running the league have not only acknowledged a problem, they’ve brought someone in whose primary task is thinking about how to fix it."

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Newsletter Excerpt, January 14, 2021 -- "The Orioles and Pirates"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider. Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and a contributor to Sports Illustrated and Baseball America. He has been writing about baseball for nearly 25 years.

Your subscription gets you the newsletter and various related features two to five days a week, more than 150 mailings (more than 200,000 words) a year full of smart, fun baseball writing that you can't find in the mainstream. Subscribers can also access the new Slack workspace, to talk baseball with me and hundreds of other Newsletter subscribers.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $49.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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"This is a bad, and not terribly watchable, baseball team. Adley Rutschman is a wonderful prospect but given the lost year there’s no reason to push him to the majors. Hall and Rodriguez would help the watchability if they make the team this summer. Mostly, though, the Orioles are about where the Astros were in 2011, needing to build the talent base, and with the actual team on the field a tertiary concern."