Newsletter Excerpt, August 20, 2025 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

Yankees 13, Rays 3

                    AB  R  H  BI

Bellinger LF-RF-CF   5  4  4   3  2 HR

Part of a Yankee barrage of nine homers last night, Cody Bellinger’s two bombs gave him 24 on the season. He’s a top-40 hitter by wRC+, top-30 player by fWAR. He’s played in 114 of the Yankees’ 125 games and is third on the team in plate appearances, second in defensive innings played.

Cody Poteet has a 12.66 ERA in 10 2/3 innings split between the majors and Triple-A.

Every time I hear a Yankee fan screaming about Brian Cashman, I look at the roster. All I see are Cashman wins. Cody Bellinger is one of his biggest ones, a four-win player acquired for literally nothing but the willingness to pay him. It’s not as if Bellinger had a bad deal, either; the Yankees are on the hook for $25 million this year, less than the price of a three-win player, and $25 million next year if Bellinger doesn’t opt out.

Adding Cody Bellinger this winter was one of the best moves of the offseason and one of the best moves of Cashman’s career.

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 19, 2025 -- "Mailbag"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

I’m a White Sox fan, but I live on the North Side among the Cub world and I can't help asking, why do the Cubs fall apart every July? Do their hitters not adjust when opponents find their weaknesses? Are they overrated to begin with? Is the organization's infrastructure deeply flawed? 

-- Paul W.

I reject the premise. The Cubs are 21-19 since July 1, fourth-best record in the NL in that time. They have not collapsed; a 91-win team (my projection for them) playing at an 84-win pace for six weeks isn’t notable at all. The Cubs simply happen to be competing against a team that’s 32-8 in that same timeframe. The wild success of the Brewers is creating the illusion of a Cubs collapse. 

Last year, the Cubs were 39-46 through June 30, 44-33 after. They went 12-11 in July, much better than they played in May and June. In 2023, the Cubs went 38-42 through June 30, 45-37 after, 15-11 in July. 

The Cubs don’t fall apart every July.

--J. 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 17, 2025 -- "Meet the Brewers"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

It’s still not entirely clear how William Contreras (3.4 WAR) ended up in Milwaukee. The A’s were trading Sean Murphy to the Braves, and suddenly, Brewers GM Matt Arnold was just...there...inserting Esteury Ruiz into the deal and snagging Contreras, coming off a 136 OPS+ and an All-Star appearance. Since that deal, Contreras has been a top-50 player in baseball, and right there with Will Smith and Cal Raleigh among the most valuable catchers in the game. With the Brewers Contreras improved his framing, and on the whole he helps the team with his defense, to go with a .278/.365/.44 batting line in three seasons up north.

Contreras has been playing through a broken left middle finger all season, an injury that caused the Brewers to add Danny Jansen at the trade deadline. Contreras finished the first half at .245/.351/.347, just unable to drive the ball. The break seems to have done him good, though, as he’s hit .317/.391/.554 out of it. As Turang does, Contreras gives the Brewers a huge edge in providing top-of-the-lineup offense from an up-the-middle position.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 15, 2025 --- "Potpourri"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

It feels like these cycles -- hear about a pitcher, get excited about a pitcher, lose a pitcher to injury -- are accelerating. We got a few years of Sandy Alcantara, including a Cy Young campaign, before he missed a season. Cole Ragans went from the trade return for a rental to Cy Young favorite to months on the IL in less than two years. Teammate Kris Bubic came back from Tommy John surgery, had a 2.58 ERA for less than a year, and is now done with a rotator cuff strain. Jared Jones lasted 22 starts before losing a year, and now Burns leaves the stage after eight. Jacob Misiorowski, healthy for the moment, might make his eighth start tonight, even as the Brewers furrow their brows over how to pitch him less. 

It’s cynical to throw up your hands and just assume all of these guys will get hurt. Some of them, the lucky ones, won’t. However, it’s hard to keep getting excited about these young men, especially the best of them, the ones that throw the hardest, the ones who make our jaws drop, make us post clips, make us turn the channel, when they disappear so quickly. We used to at least measure our time with them in seasons. Now, we measure it in starts. 

 

 

 

Ranking All 30 Teams

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

With the Third Third previews done, I took all that analysis and published a rank of all 30 teams from today onward 

 

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Seattle Mariners

3. Chicago Cubs

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Milwaukee Brewers

6. San Diego Padres

7. Boston Red Sox

8. New York Yankees

9. New York Mets

10. Toronto Blue Jays

11. Detroit Tigers

12. Texas Rangers

13. Houston Astros

14. Tampa Bay Rays

15. Cincinnati Reds

16. Atlanta Braves

17. St. Louis Cardinals

18. Cleveland Guardians

19. Baltimore Orioles

20. Kansas City Royals

21. Sacramento Athletics

22. Miami Marlins

23. San Francisco Giants

24. Arizona Diamondbacks

25. Minnesota Twins

26. Chicago White Sox

27. Los Angeles Angels

28. Pittsburgh Pirates

29. Washington Nationals

30. Colorado Rockies

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 12, 2025 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 5"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

--

 

7. New York Mets (63-55, third-order 63-55, second in NL East, 77.7% playoff odds)

Added: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto

Subtracted: Jose Butto, ten minor leaguers

I have spent much of the last 18 hours responding to frustrated Yankee fans, and I expect I’ll spend the next 18 hours responding to frustrated Mets fans. Here’s the thing, though...

          Predicted    Projected

Mets        88-74        86-76

Yankees     84-78        85-77

The New York baseball teams are hewing as close to preseason projections as any teams in MLB. Through almost three-quarters of the season, the wisdom of Dennis Green carries the day, at least in this space.

That’s not going to make anyone happy because the Mets and Yankees both made the mistake of winning their games in the wrong order. The Mets’ patchwork starting rotation was the best in baseball in March and April, leading the majors in ERA and FIP and helping the Mets achieve a 21-10 start that extended to 45-24 by the middle of June. At that point, the Mets had stayed on rotation almost all season, using five starters for 13 starts apiece, 65 of 69 games started by those five. Their 2.79 starters’ ERA led baseball, their 3.51 FIP was third. 

If we’d been looking for it, though, we might have seen the flaw. For as stable as they were and good as that run prevention was, Mets starters were just 13th in MLB in innings pitched. Since then, the team’s rotation has collapsed: 25th in ERA, 29th in FIP, and dead last in innings pitched. That, in turn, has wrecked the bullpen, which -- after being the second-best unit in baseball through June 12 -- has thrown the third-most innings of any pen since to tune of a 4.89 ERA (25th) and 4.31 FIP (20th). The deadline additions of Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto, designed to address the problem, have helped -- four runs in 15 1/3 innings as Mets -- but only so much. Mets relievers lost the two games over the weekend in Milwaukee that extended the team’s losing streak to seven.

The rightful focus on the collapse of the pitching staff, though, has perhaps served to protect another culprit, the Mets’ young hitters. The top six Mets batsmen are Juan Soto and five players 30 and older. The group of young hitters who were expected to fill out a strong lineup have, collectively, no-showed. Francisco Alvarez returned from a demotion to raise his wRC+ over par; no other homegrown young Met is at better than 100, league average. Brett Baty is hitting .228/.288/.408 (96 wRC+). Ronny Mauricio is at .234/.300/.409 (100 wRC+). Luisangel Acuña lost his roster spot for hitting .239/.295/.283 (68 wRC+). Most crushing is Newsletter favorite Mark Vientos, who has followed up his breakout 2024 by hitting .230/.277/.364 (81 wRC+).

The Mets were supposed to have an offense good enough to carry the pitching staff, but their young hitters have failed to advance, and the stars have been good, though a tick below established levels. Recent trends aside, the Mets’ offense is the disappointing unit relative to my preseason expectations. Based on the talent on hand, it should be better from here on in than a 106 wRC+.

That’s one reason, maybe the biggest, why I think the Mets will right the ship and end up as one of the NL’s wild-card teams. With seven games left against the Phillies, the NL East is still in play as well. As we’ve discussed, it’s a more shallow pool than it has been. This lineup, with the small offensive upgrade in center now that Cedric Mullins is here, can outscore the pitching staff. Again, this weekend aside, a back end of Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers is going to close down the 6-4 and 7-6 games well enough. My Mets panic meter is at 3/10. Join me over here. We’ve got cold drinks.

Why Watch? If I need to encourage you to watch the good team with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz, it’s possible you received this email in error.