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7. New York Mets (63-55, third-order 63-55, second in NL East, 77.7% playoff odds)
Added: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto
Subtracted: Jose Butto, ten minor leaguers
I have spent much of the last 18 hours responding to frustrated Yankee fans, and I expect I’ll spend the next 18 hours responding to frustrated Mets fans. Here’s the thing, though...
Predicted Projected
Mets 88-74 86-76
Yankees 84-78 85-77
The New York baseball teams are hewing as close to preseason projections as any teams in MLB. Through almost three-quarters of the season, the wisdom of Dennis Green carries the day, at least in this space.
That’s not going to make anyone happy because the Mets and Yankees both made the mistake of winning their games in the wrong order. The Mets’ patchwork starting rotation was the best in baseball in March and April, leading the majors in ERA and FIP and helping the Mets achieve a 21-10 start that extended to 45-24 by the middle of June. At that point, the Mets had stayed on rotation almost all season, using five starters for 13 starts apiece, 65 of 69 games started by those five. Their 2.79 starters’ ERA led baseball, their 3.51 FIP was third.
If we’d been looking for it, though, we might have seen the flaw. For as stable as they were and good as that run prevention was, Mets starters were just 13th in MLB in innings pitched. Since then, the team’s rotation has collapsed: 25th in ERA, 29th in FIP, and dead last in innings pitched. That, in turn, has wrecked the bullpen, which -- after being the second-best unit in baseball through June 12 -- has thrown the third-most innings of any pen since to tune of a 4.89 ERA (25th) and 4.31 FIP (20th). The deadline additions of Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto, designed to address the problem, have helped -- four runs in 15 1/3 innings as Mets -- but only so much. Mets relievers lost the two games over the weekend in Milwaukee that extended the team’s losing streak to seven.
The rightful focus on the collapse of the pitching staff, though, has perhaps served to protect another culprit, the Mets’ young hitters. The top six Mets batsmen are Juan Soto and five players 30 and older. The group of young hitters who were expected to fill out a strong lineup have, collectively, no-showed. Francisco Alvarez returned from a demotion to raise his wRC+ over par; no other homegrown young Met is at better than 100, league average. Brett Baty is hitting .228/.288/.408 (96 wRC+). Ronny Mauricio is at .234/.300/.409 (100 wRC+). Luisangel Acuña lost his roster spot for hitting .239/.295/.283 (68 wRC+). Most crushing is Newsletter favorite Mark Vientos, who has followed up his breakout 2024 by hitting .230/.277/.364 (81 wRC+).
The Mets were supposed to have an offense good enough to carry the pitching staff, but their young hitters have failed to advance, and the stars have been good, though a tick below established levels. Recent trends aside, the Mets’ offense is the disappointing unit relative to my preseason expectations. Based on the talent on hand, it should be better from here on in than a 106 wRC+.
That’s one reason, maybe the biggest, why I think the Mets will right the ship and end up as one of the NL’s wild-card teams. With seven games left against the Phillies, the NL East is still in play as well. As we’ve discussed, it’s a more shallow pool than it has been. This lineup, with the small offensive upgrade in center now that Cedric Mullins is here, can outscore the pitching staff. Again, this weekend aside, a back end of Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers is going to close down the 6-4 and 7-6 games well enough. My Mets panic meter is at 3/10. Join me over here. We’ve got cold drinks.
Why Watch? If I need to encourage you to watch the good team with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz, it’s possible you received this email in error.
