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24. Detroit Tigers (67-51, third-order 64-54, first in AL Central, 96.6% playoff odds)
Added: Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack, Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald, Codi Heuer
Subtracted: Dietrich Enns, Matt Manning
This was Scott Harris’s first opportunity to be a buyer at the trade deadline, and it was a little more Mike Elias-flavored than Tigers fans would have hoped. The Tigers have lost 16 of 24 after starting 59-34, and they’re down two starting pitchers, Jackson Jobe and Reese Olson. Adding Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack serves to add innings, but the Tigers could have used a #2 behind Tarik Skubal. A.J. Hinch’s best option in October may once again be pitching chaos -- no starting option outside of Skubal has better than a 4.00 FIP this year.
Harris’s bullpen additions serve a similar function, as Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Codi Heuer, and the currently-injured Paul Sewald are all 3.50 FIP and worse types. Finnegan has picked up three saves for the Tigers in three outings, but his career-low FIP is 3.76 and he had crawl back to the Nationals last winter after being non-tendered. Hinch has more options now, it’s just not clear he has better ones. Rookie righty Troy Melton may end up being more important than this group of pickups.
If I’m going to defend Harris, it’s to point out that the market wasn’t deep in the kind of starting pitching he needed. The best starter to move at the deadline was a #3, Merrill Kelly, and even the top guys who weren’t traded, like Dylan Cease and Mitch Keller, aren’t that much better. The lineup needs are up the middle, never easy to fill in July. (Javier Baez since he was named an All-Star starter: .222/.222/.346, 26 strikeouts and tied with you in walks. One of the dumbest All-Star selections ever.)
The Tigers’ lead in the AL Central is down to five games over the Guardians, which is also their cushion for a playoff spot. They have a .280 OBP in the second half, and they didn’t get better at the deadline. The math still likes them -- they have just a 3.3% chance to miss October -- but a year ago today the math said they were a 500-1 shot to make the playoffs. Maybe the math isn’t as much a comfort as a couple more good baseball players would be.
The Tigers and Guardians play six games in ten days over the final two weeks of the season, and the Tigers have worked very hard to make those games important.
Why Watch? Well, either they’re going to make the playoffs, or they’re going to complete the back half of one of the craziest two-season runs we’ve ever seen.
